How Much Longer for Wilkerson?

by user ASwaff

My partner in crime already dedicated some space to mentioning Brad Wilkerson's lackluster performance to this point in the season. But, I want to take a minute more to reinforce my opinion that it will only be a matter of time before Ian Kinsler replaces Brad Wilkerson in the leadoff spot.

I've got no problem with Wilkerson staying in the lineup because, first of all, anyone that the Rangers gave so much for deserves the chance to show up. Secondly, he plays defense as well as anyone they could put in the outfield. Not to mention the fact that he's shown a surprising lack of power that I think will come out again eventually.

But, right now he has a .188 batting average, and his strikeout total of 14 is equal to Michael Young, Hank Blalock, and Kevin Mench combined (5, 5 and 4, respectively). That's more than lackluster, it's downright pathetic. Combine that with the fact that he's a career .255 hitter, he hit .248 last year with a .351 OBP, and the fact that his best batting average for a season was .268, and one has to wonder what he was ever doing in the leadoff spot in the first place. By the way, his strikeout totals from 2002 to 2005 are, in order - 161, 155, 152 and 147.

I like Wilkerson's defense, I like his gritty play and, to a lesser extent, I like his agressiveness at the plate. But he is just not a leadoff hitter. His batting average is too low, his on-base percentage is way too low, he strikes out too much and he doesn't steal enough bases.

Kinsler can't possibly maintain the pace he's setting early in the season, but to this point, he's batting .444 with a .545 OBP, has 3 walks to Wilkerson's 1, and has 2 strikeouts to Wilkerson's 14. It's only a matter of time before Wilkerson loses his spot atop the lineup, but one has to wonder just how much time it will take for Showalter to realize Wilkerson's no leadoff hitter.

(All stats provided by The Baseball Cube. See also Baseball Time in Arlington).

Date

Sun 04/09/06, 11:14 pm EST <pageTools></pageTools>

Bball3345Draft Pick

1331 days ago

Score 1

Remember, last year's numbers were in the most pitcher-friendly park RFK and he alos had a shoulder injury. In 2004, Wilkerson had a .374 OBP with 32 HRs. In 2003, he had an OBP of .380. He will certainly end up with a better OBP than Kinsler. The only thing that needs to be worried about is if his shoulder is still hurt, which it might be. There's no need to worry about how often he strikes out. He has always struck out a lot and it didn't hurt his performance.

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DNLLegend

1331 days ago

Score 0

We baseball fans love to look at two series' worth of stats and make ridiculous pronouncements based on them. It may be why April is such a fun month!

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EnyboDiv-I Stud

1331 days ago

Score -1

I was wondering the same thing, he's bringing my fantasy team down. How much longer do I stick with him?

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ASwaffAll-American

1331 days ago

Score -3

BBall, I'm not saying it's not possible that he will finish with a better OBP than Kinsler, although if he keep playing with the shoulder injury he still has, that is far from being a given. I'm saying that right now, I don't think he should be in the leadoff spot. And that's also why I said don't take him out of the lineup. He can still do valuable things, he can still get on base, but I've never really thought of him much as a pinch hitter. The reason I wrote this wasn't to dis Wilkerson so much as to say that I think he'd serve the Rangers much better in a different spot in the lineup. I wouldn't mind having him in the 9th spot so that the leadoff man can come up with a runner on. I also wouldn't mind him in the 6th spot, because there is a huge dropoff right now after Blalock in the five hole. And Enybo, I'd hold on to Wilkerson, because he's bound to recover, and he's playing in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the MLB. But if you have a good option on the bench, you might want to go with him until he either recovers from this injury or gets out of the funk he's in.

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ASwaffAll-American

1331 days ago

Score -4

Sorry, I meant leadoff hitter, not pinch hitter.

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Bball3345Draft Pick

1331 days ago

Score 0

I guess then it is just a difference in strategy between us. I see Wilkerson having the best OBP of anyone in this lineup not named Teixeira; therefore, I want Wilkerson in my leadoff spot. I do agree with you that the shoulder injury could be a problem for an extended period of time and I do agree with you that it may be right to move him down in the lineup if his shoulder effects his performance. Still, I would need a larger sample size than one week, especially considering he still managed to hit one out of the park, so the shoulder can't be too terrible(not that I'm a doctor).

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15sportsLittle Leaguer

1330 days ago

Score -1

I think we need to relax a little and wait until a little more time passes. But I do agree, Wilkerson has been a whif master!

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ASwaffAll-American

1330 days ago

Score -4

I think you're forgetting about Michael Young, too. Last year his OBP was .385. And yes, our strategies do differ. I think a high OBP is very important, but you can't have your leadoff hitter striking out that much, especially in a league with a DH. A high OBP is great and everything, but I don't want a leadoff hitter that is guaranteed to strike out more than 140 times in a season. To me, that indicates streakiness. I'd rather have a leadoff hitter with a slightly lower OBP that can give me fewer Ks and greater consistency.

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Bball3345Draft Pick

1330 days ago

Score -2

What is the difference between a guy who strikes out 150 times with a .375 OBP and a guy who strikes out 50 times with a .375 OBP? The guy with fewer strikeout got out via flyball or groundball instead. I didn't forget about Michael Young. Last year was his first year with an OBP that high; whereas, Wilkerson has had a few seasons with high OBPs. So I am not totally sold on Young having a better OBP than Wilkerson.

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ASwaffAll-American

1330 days ago

Score -4

But at least he's putting the ball in play. You can look at it as the batter only getting out by a different method. OR, you can look at it from the angle that the batter is at least putting the ball in play, giving runners the chance to move up on the grounder, on the fly ball or on an error. He may have gotten out just as much, but he's putting the ball in play more often, which will give baserunners more chances to move up. You'd better believe I'd prefer a guy with the same OBP that puts the ball in play more often. Nothing happens on a strikeout.

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Bball3345Draft Pick

1329 days ago

Score -1

I've never seen anyone Ground Into a Double Play on a strikeout...

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