How Important Are Stolen Bases? Stay On First.

by user Aprisco

Many baseball people like to extoll the virtues of having speedy players.  A lot is made about whether a team can steal bases. I for one do not think good teams need to steal bases.  Why?  Because if you have a good lineup with power hitters in the middle of your lineup, you do not want to take the chance of getting thrown out on the bases.  Really, Derek Jeter is a great basestealer who hardly ever gets thrown out, but why on earth would he try to steal a base in front of A-Rod?  Good offensive teams work the count, get men on base and then wait for someone to get a clutch hit.

Consider the following:  the top 5 teams in runs scored in the Major Leagues this season are Detroit, Cleveland, the Yankees, Philly and Texas.  None of those teams are in the top 5 in stolen bases.  Philly has the most, coming in 6th in the Majors.  Three of these teams aren't in the top 10 in steals:  Detroit is 19th!  Cleveland is 16th and Texas is 12th.  By the way, the Yankees are 9th.  The next five highest scoring teams make things things a little better: the Angels are 2nd in stolen bases, the Twins are 4th, but the Red Sox are 11th, the Brewers 15th and the Rockies are 10th. Only 5 of the top ten teams in runs scored are in the top 10 in steals and only two are in the top 5.  This would indicate that speed is a nice complement to have as part of your offense, but you better have some big hitters in your lineup as well.

Are stolen bases more important in the playoffs?  This is an interesting argument.  Usually in the playoffs, pitching is better, runs are harder to come by and a stolen base and a base hit could mean the difference between winning and losing.  Just ask Red Sox fans how important Dave Roberts was in 2004. Remember that he pinch ran for Kevin Millar in the 9th inning against the Yankees and the Great Mariano with the Red Sox trailing by one and losing 3-0 in the series.  Roberts stole second, Mueller got a seeing-eye single and the Red Sox tied the game.  The rest was history.

However, even this argument for stolen bases is likely overblown.  Consider that since 1980 the World Series champion had its league's stolen base leader only once, that was Juan Pierre for Florida in 2003.  While stolen bases can certainly help any offense, the statistics show that if you are building a team it should be one of the last factors to consider.

Tmil42AAA-er

877 days ago

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Stolen bases can be even more reckless to attempt in the postseason. Babe Ruth did get caught stealing to end the 1926 World Series

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Falcon02520Legend

877 days ago

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Dave Roberts not Gary

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ApriscoWaterboy

877 days ago

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Thanks!

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Falcon02520Legend

877 days ago

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good thoughts, but stolen bases are needed by teams that do not have power hitters. good base stealers (ie jose reyes) can turn a walk or hit by pitch into a double. if you are on second, that is considered scoring position because you can score from second on a single. if you are still on first, you need an extra base hit to score. now a walk, stolen base, and single will give you a run.

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ApriscoWaterboy

877 days ago

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I guess my point is that if that's the way you have to score runs, you probably don't have a good offensive team, and the Mets don't have a good offensive team. But, perhaps if you have good pitching and defense, you can win that way in the playoffs.

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Falcon02520Legend

877 days ago

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yeah, i understood your point, it is a good one too.

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JuTMSY4Legend

877 days ago

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Well, it depends on the game too... Its called "small Ball" and its been done before, successfully. Reyes is a fine example...he gets on 1st...then basically, he's on second...you get 1 of the 3 next guys (Delgado, Beltran and ??) to get a hit...bam...1-0...you never know how valuable a run really is until the end of the game

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Niteowl049AAA-er

877 days ago

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Very good point about Dave Roberts...if not for him stealing that base the Red Sox may not have been world champions that season.

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RomiezzoLegend

877 days ago

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This is a very good post that you made. In my opinion, when talking about the Jeter/ARod situation, you should only have Jeter steal bases when there's one out in later innings. Jeter has a good stealing percentage like you said, but AROD doesn't hit a home run every single time he comes up to bat.

Very good point about Roberts as well. And I think that when talking about the leaders of stolen bases since, most of those years included Rickey Henderson, so that cancels out every AL title. But yeah, usually, for World Series teams, they're great all around teams; good 3 4 5 hitters, good leadoff man, good starters, bullpen, defense, etc.

And what if you DON'T have a good heart of a lineup? What if you're a team like the Devil Rays with Carl Crawford? Or Brian Roberts with the Orioles?

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WizardmanRed-Shirting

877 days ago

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Well, that's true, you don't need a lot of stolen bases. You just need the one speedster who you know can get them when you need them.

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YanksAgainIn07Soccer Kid

877 days ago

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Imagine this..1st inning, ur lead off man gets on...steals 2nd, ur # 2 hitter usually a guy who can ahndle the bat will either bunts him over via sac bunt or tries to hit behind him, whether it be a ground ball to secondbase or a basehit...either way no you have a runner on 3rd and you only need ball to the outfield or sumthing hit to the rightside by ur 3 or 4 guy to drive in the run..and just like that u have a run on the board in the first inning..its an interesting post, and does have valid points but having the ability to take that extra base when necessary ids just such a huge advantage for a team, like the example i used..Offenses may only need a flyball or groundball to the right side to score instead of a hit, it just takes less to score with the luxury of speed..

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Kwitt11Varsity Captain

877 days ago

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Imagine this...1st inning, your leadoff man gets on...and gets thrown out trying to steal second. You've wasted a baserunner and you've wasted an out, and now you most likely won't score this inning. Stolen bases are never a given...even Reyes has been caught 11 times this season.

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RomiezzoLegend

877 days ago

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What if you're like Lugo. He's almost always an out, but when he gets on base, he's most likely to score, because you've got Pedroia, Ortiz, and Ramirez. Plus, he's never been caught stealing so far this season...

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YanksAgainIn07Soccer Kid

877 days ago

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ps..excuse the typos

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TylersaltAll-Star

877 days ago

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Speed is important, but not for stealing bases. I don't remember where I saw this (it might have been Moneyball, but statistically a team must be successful on 80% or more of their stealing attempts for the strategy to have a positive effect on their win expentency.

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BarkingclamVarsity

877 days ago

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Baseball Between the Numbers. They had a whole chapter on that, and this.

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YanksAgainIn07Soccer Kid

877 days ago

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..nothing in baseball is guaranteed but if you dont have an A-Rod or Pujols in your line up then these are the chances you have to take..So youd rather wait for a long ball or for the pitcher to give up 3 hits in a row just to get a runner to third?..

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RomiezzoLegend

877 days ago

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It's all about numbers, facts, and luck in this game, and just about any game. Can you steal off a certain pitcher? You have to be in the right place at the right time. Look at the Dave Roberts example. He was so close to getting tagged out. If Posada just got it a little bit lower, I think Roberts would've been called out and the only history that would've been made was that the yankees swept the red sox in '04. But, because the bottom of the lineup is coming up. 7, 8, and 9 don't have power and a lot of extra base hits, and Roberts knew that. All Bill Mueller had to do was just put the ball in a gap in the outfield, and he did, and Dave Roberts scored to tie the game.

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YanksAgainIn07Soccer Kid

877 days ago

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great point... whos pitching and whos catching all has to b taken into consideration...what about Hit and Runs? Runner gets head start but its definatly not a normal steal...Or is that just a COMPLETELY DIFFERANT ARGUMENT?...lol

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Davis21wylieMVP

877 days ago

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We talked a bit about the hit and run here, in terms of how it actually reduces your probability of a big inning... The bottom line: "Sitting around and waiting for something to happen" may seem like a passive strategy that loses ballgames, but patience (both at the plate and in managerial decisions like not stealing) actually wins out in the end. Having a guy or two who can steal when you absolutely have to is a great team-building strategy, but basing your entire game plan around those small-ball tactics will simply kill your offense.

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YanksAgainIn07Soccer Kid

877 days ago

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...I just dont see the point in sitting around WAITING for sumthing to happen, when your trying to win ballgames..but of course every club has there own style...

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Anonymous Fanatic #1

877 days ago

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We can discuss this for weeks or even months,but i think regardless of how teams score runs..we can ALL AGREE that pitching and defense wins championships?

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YanksAgainIn07Soccer Kid

877 days ago

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We can discuss this for weeks or even months,but i think regardless of how teams score runs..we can ALL AGREE that pitching and defense wins championships?

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Taytay 24All-American

877 days ago

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I like small ball because I've seen the Rangers try to win by hitting homers all my life and have nothing to show for it. Basing your offense around home run hitters is like building your basketball team around jump shooters. Eventually, they are going to go cold and kill you, and it's likely going to happen in the playoffs.

As Tylersalt said above, speed is important for other than stealing bases as well. Getting from first to third on a single is just as big as a stolen base, perhaps moreso. Teams like the Angels that teach this from the bottom of their farm system up are creating a distinct advantage during games.

If nothing else, just the threat of a runner on the bases can change a pitcher's strategy.

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Kwitt11Varsity Captain

876 days ago

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In the last 10 years, the Rangers have been in the top 5 in the AL in runs scored every year except 2000, when they were ninth. They've been in the top four each of the past four years. They do play in a hitter's park, which distorts the numbers a bit, but their offense has been good overall. The reason they haven't been good recently is their pitching, not their offense.

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Taytay 24All-American

876 days ago

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The reason they haven't been good ever is because of their pitching. But they have also been in situations, particularly in their three playoff appearances, all against the Yankees, when they bats went cold, and they had no ability to produce a run otherwise. Obviously, like most things, the key is balance. But if I were forced to choose one style strictly over the other, I'd go small ball. Base running doesn't go cold.

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Kwitt11Varsity Captain

876 days ago

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Let's see...in 1999, the Rangers managed only one run in three games. Not good. I will cut them some slack, though, because the Yankees pitching was incredible that year - they gave up more than three runs in a game only once in the entire postseason.

1998...more of the same. Only one run in three games again. However, I'm not sure you can attribute that to trying to hit the long ball too much...they finished sixth out of 14 teams in the AL in homers that year.

1996...they had less trouble scoring runs. Six in the first game, four in the second game, two and four in the third and fourth, respectively. Overall, not great, but not horrible...16 runs in four games against better-quality pitching. They had six home runs that year too.

So, what you say may have some validity...you certainly have to go beyond three series to get an adequate sample size. Personally, I think that "small-ball" is usually the wrong strategy, and (what is the opposite of "small-ball?) is usually better, but I haven't seen conclusive proof either way, and there's an argument to be made for both sides.

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Taytay 24All-American

876 days ago

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Unfortunately for the Rangers, three series may be a small sample size, but it's all we've got. :(

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The oldest manVarsity

876 days ago

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It has been said many times what stolen bases add to the game. But the biggest addition is what it does to the opposing pitchers and catchers and what the opposing managers have to think about. Will he or won't he try to steal? What should the next pitch be if a very good basestealer is on. There aren't many offenses built around base stealing anymore since Maury Wills and the Dodgers in the 60's, but it still does have a large part to do with the game today. The points being made about lack of offense and runs scored are very valid and basestealing hasn't been to baseball what it was 30 years ago. Why? Homeruns have become the power statistic revolving around the runs scored by the teams. Paramount with this attitude is the fans want the big flashy homeruns with all the fireworks in the outfield.....During the big time era of basestealing Wills, Brock and others it really played an important part of those particular teams offense. I don't know how many games the Dodgers won 1-0, 2-1,3-2, 2-0 so on and so forth but with Koufax and Drysdale pitching shutouts on a regular basis and them only scoring when Wills would single or walk, steal 2nd and 3rd and then scoring when Gilliam or Davis & Davis would drive him in and then sit back and wait for Sandy or Don to complete the job. The Dodgers did have a good homerun hitter in Frank Howard but the offense centered around a philosophy of hit,run,score anyway you can. I most of all use to love to watch the great pitching games of Koufax & Drysdale, Gibson, Bunning, Chance, Ford and others but now it has centered around the runs scored via homerun. Whether it is right or wrong it will always be in the eye of the baseball fan, but I will always love a great pitching duel and outstanding defensive plays that determine the outcome of the game.

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Kwitt11Varsity Captain

876 days ago

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Sorry if I'm interpreting this wrong...but are you saying that the Dodgers offense was good because they won games 1-0 and 2-1 via smallball? Because if they hit more homers, they might win those games 5-0 and 7-1...

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CWY2190Waterboy

875 days ago

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A team that can steal bases can force a pitcher into making a mistake. For example, the Twins are really good at this. Punto or Bartlett will get on 1st in a tied game or a 1 run game and the threat of a stolen base is enough to get the pitcher to focus on something other than the batter. If a pitcher thinks a runner will try to steal second on the next pitch but doesn't want to pitch out, the pitcher will throw a fastball. Mauer, Cuddyer, Morneau and Hunter know this and take advantage of it.

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YanksAgainIn07Soccer Kid

875 days ago

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..Guys im sorry but anyone here saying theyd rather have there offense built around the long ball probably has never PLAYED the game themselves..they've just been deprived of good baseball thanks to the good ppl at balco... the problem is that these days theres just no emphasis on speed or even small ball as a whole...A guy who is a threat to steal on first can do so much more then swipe a bag or go first to third..it can make a pitcher use a slide step which takes away from the bite on a breaking ball so now instead of a nasty 12-6 curve its a hanger..that gets driven into a gap or OUT OF THE PARK....having speed on first just gives the pitcher sumthing else to think about before he throws a pitch..it even adds presure to guys in the field, runner on 2nd, basehit to RF..the RFer knows the guy on second has sum wheels, so maybe he rushes a throw and it sails wide so now everyone moves up, or he over charges the ball and it gets by him..now a single turns into a run scored and a runner on 2nd...guys i hate to tell you but speed opens up so many more aspects of the game then yous are probably aware of...

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ApriscoWaterboy

874 days ago

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the proof is the pudding...does it equate to runs scored, these statistics say not really. Now having speed on the bases is a different story, the point of the article wasn't to say that you should have a slow bunch of home run hitters, it was to say that stolen bases don't equate to producing runs and it's hard to argue that based on the statistics.

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