How Does the "Prospect for Major Leaguer" Deal Play Out?
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by user Andersed
We've seen it many times: at the trade deadline, or even in the offseason, a contending team sends multiple minor leaguers for one or two solid major league players. The latest example is the Bobby Abreu trade. Of course, in ten years we could refer to it as the "C.J. Henry" trade, after the top prospect involved in the deal. Odds are low.
Perhaps my memory fails me (and feel free to refresh it), but I haven't seen the Yankees get bit by this type of deal recently. Clearly the Yankees do not believe that all four of those players will become good enough players to pass Abreu and Lidle. Or maybe they're that willing to mortgage their future.
There are very few trades where multiple prospects surpass the major leaguer involved. My Mariners traded Randy Johnson to the Astros for Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen, and John Halama. All of them are contributors in the major leagues. Guillen and Garcia could become All-Stars with a seasonal bump. Then there's Tampa Bay phenom Scott Kazmir, whom the Mets traded for Victor Zambrano.
There's a major difference with those trades compared to the Abreu deal - all of those prospects were close to the bigs at the time of the trade. Garcia went straight to the M's, Guillen and Halama came up the next year. Three of these prospects are Single-A players, described by Steve Phillips as "mid-level".
Another example is the Giants' trade of Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and Boof Bonser for A.J. Pierzynski. Nathan was already a major leaguer, but Liriano and Bonser were a couple years away.
Though I've used examples that show how the prospect receiver makes out well in trades, I think the better bet long-term is to deal prospects for major leaguers. That's why the best teams makes those type of trades. Also, those prospects aren't likely to stay with the same team for any significant period of time. Garcia, Guillen, and Halama were all gone by the middle of the 2004 season.
To deal specifically with this trade, Lidle and Abreu are iffy players for how much money the Yankees are dishing out. They're each switching to more difficult leagues, Abreu's power has disappeared mysteriously in the last year and Lidle is a home run pitcher. He's no Javier Vazquez, and we all know how that turned out.
As a Mariner fan, and someone who casually wishes the Yankees ill because of George Steinbrenner and a certain small segment of the fan population and Alex Rodriguez, I'm a bit displeased by this trade. If the Yankees get healthy (odds are low), the lineup will be formidable. But in a seven-game series, the pitching isn't scary. I don't see them getting past the ALCS.
Date
Sun 07/30/06, 8:57 pm EST
