How Bad is It??
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by user 204.65.67.247
Here are some musings from the boys at I Remember Dome Dogs...
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Adam Everett is gone, Brad Lidge is down for the count too. So, what's the damage? Today we'll focus on Adam Everett.
I think the past few games have had just about every Astros fan wishing fervently that Carlos Lee had even less speed than exhibited or had just stopped running -- though, to be fair Adam could have stopped too when he saw the big man lumbering towards him like a freight train. Two post's ago, I posted some data pertaining the number of runs above/below average that the Astros were providing the Astros. Adam Everett was leading in the team by with the lowest number of runs with a negative 14 runs provided for what could be expected of an average shortstop. After that post, I realized that I had perhaps made an error in analyzing the team in a MLV fashion because it uses an "average" player as the baseline of comparison. VORP, the measure of what a replacement player could provide would have been the most correct stat to use. However, given that the Astros have decided to move Mark Loretta into the shortstop role until Adam's leg heals, with Bruntlett only coming off the bench in late game situations to provide some defense, I will continue to utilize MLV because of Loretta's offensive prowess.
So what have the Astros lost with Adam Everett down for the count. First let's look at what has happened line-up wise as the result of Adam's departure:
1) Loretta has slid over to Short Stop
This has opened up his previous spot of Third or Second so:
2) Mike Lamb has full-time starters role at either Third or First
The rotation between third a first works in this platoon fashion
3) When Mike Lamb plays First, Morgan Ensberg plays Third and Lance Berkman is in Right field (This will not happen very often)
or
4) When Mike Lamb plays Third, Lance Berkman plays first and Luke Scott/Chris Burke play right field.
So in order to look at the full impact of Adam Everett being lost, we need to look at primarily at two things in my mind's eye:
1) Run differential in defense between Loretta and Everett at Short Stop
Adam Everett has saved 15 runs from scoring in 63 games a shortstop giving him a rate of .238 runs saved/game, while Mark Loretta has allowed 5 runs to score in 13 games giving him -.385 runs saved/game. Over this 40 game period this what we get:
(Adam Everett: .238 runs saved/game x 40 games = 9.52 runs - (Mark Loretta: -.385 runs saved/game x 40 games = -15.4 runs) ~= 25 runs
2) Run differential in offense between Mike Lamb and Adam Everett Mike Lamb currently owns an MLVr .260 and Adam Everett an MLVr of -.241. Assuming that Adam Everett is gone for 40 games gives us this run differential:
(Mike Lamb: .260MLVr x 40 games = 10.4 runs) - (Adam Everett: -.241MLVr x 40 games = -9.64 runs) ~= 20 runs
3) Run differential between Morgan Ensberg losing, what I am assuming to be about 15 starts at 3rd in this time:
Morgan's MLVr -.099 x 15 games = 1.49 runs that we won't lose
Totaling all the runs, and we get: -25 runs in defense + 21.5 runs in offense gained = -3.5 runs
So when all is said in done, the Astros are out 3.5 runs, or about a 1/3 of a win. So while there is a huge defensive hole in our team, the offense we gain from Adam's bat being taken out of the line up is almost enough to offset the loss of his glove.
Disclaimer : Another area I thought to analyze was the fact that with Loretta not getting a share of the Second Base starts gives Craig more playing time. However, I figured that with Craig so close, he'd probably get the lion's share anyhow. Also, all of this could change when Craig get's his hits and Bruntlett comes in, then we have to analyze things from VORP factor, but we'll cross that bridge…if at all, when we get there. Also, the defensive differences between the rotating Right Field couldn't be analyzed because there isn't a statistically significant or available amount of date on Lance, Luke, and Chris. Though Lance currently has a better defensive run rate than Luke (just not statistically significant at this point). Lance and Mike are identical first baseman defensively…just about.
Sources: http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=206623 http://www.hardballtimes.com/images/uploads/Zone_Ratings_-_June_14,_2007.xls
