Home Run Apple: Livan, Not A-Rod, Is The Prime Target
| 20
|
by Dan Lewis
Here's a quick statistical breakdown for you. Let's see if you can figure out what the stat is.
Here's a hint: It's not wins.
Here's another hint: It's probably the most important stat out there if you're a Mets fan.
- Tom Glavine -- 10
- John Maine -- 12
- Oliver Perez -- 12
- Orlando Hernandez -- 10
- Livan Hernandez 2007 -- 15
- Livan Hernandez 2006 -- 19
- Livan Hernandez 2006 -- 24
It's starts with 7 or more innings pitched. The Mets top four pitchers last year had either 10 or 12; Hernandez crushed them. With Pedro Martinez effectively replacing Glavine next year, the Mets seems to have more of the same -- a lot of 6 inning outings.
If you want to see one of the biggest reasons for the Mets woes in 2007, look no further than that stat. Yes, the Mets starters were good -- or, at least, good enough to get the Mets to the playoffs. The most significant point of failure was the middle relief. And it's all those sub-7 IP starts which, by definition, require two or more innings of middle relief work. And middle relievers are notoriously inconsistent, which makes sense, as they are neither good enough to be starting pitchers nor to be closers.
Facially, and I'd bet, on further investigation, we can draw a simple conclusion: minimizing the amount of innings pitched by relief pitchers is a dominant strategy. That is, a team which devotes fewer innings per game to non-closer bullpen will do better than a team which relies on middle relief more. There are some exceptions to this rule, but the exceptions typically fall into one of three categories: (i) the hyper-effective middle reliever should really be a starter (e.g. Joba Chamberlain); (ii) the reliever is being groomed for or otherwise should be a closer (e.g. Joel Zumaya); (iii) luck: the pitcher is good this year, but there's little reason to think he will be next year (e.g. Scott Linebrink). Obviously, we cannot control luck, but in looking at the other two ways to have a great middle relief corps, it seems self-evident that the cost -- having a weaker rotation or closer -- is probably not worth the gain, except for in exceptional circumstances.
Minimizing middle relief innings, therefore, means maximizing starting pitcher innings. And the Mets failed at that last year -- and miserably so.
Last year, Hernandez earned $7 million. Had Tom Glavine exercised his player option, the Mets would be on the hook for $10 million (on top of the $3m buyout). Hernandez will do what Glavine should have done -- kept Guillermo Mota et al on the bench. He should be the Mets #1 target this off-season.
