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History of the NBA Draft: Unlucky No. 7

15
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by user Roblefko

Draft Coverage
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NBA Draft by Pick
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25 - 26 - 27 - 28 - 29 - 30 - 31 - 32
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Sonics - Spurs - Suns
Timberwolves - Warriors - Wizards
NBA Drafts by the Year

2000s

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Sources

  • Wikipedia
  • Sportsstats
  • n-c-systems
  • basketball-reference


I've broken down all the NBA Drafts since the very first one in 1947 to see which overall pick has produced the most All-Stars and MVPs (see chart below). For the most part, the results were what was expected. The higher the pick No., the more All-Stars and MVP's produced. For example, led by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's 19 All-Stars and 6 MVP's, the 59 No. 1 Picks have produced 199 All-Star appearances and 17 MVP awards. The numbers decrease proportionally as we move down the list, with the 30th pick overall producing 5 All-Star appearances and 0 MVP's. However, along the way there are a few oddities.

Unlucky No. 7

As we move down the picks, we see the 4th, 5th, 6th, and 8th picks have produced 80, 94, 73, and 55 All-Star appearances respectively, with a total of 7 MVP awards. And the 7th pick...24 All-Star appearances. 0 MVPS. Out of the 59 players selected with the 7th overall pick, only 8 players have been invited to at least one All-Star game for a total of 24 All-Star appearances. And the losers of this year's draft lottery with the 7th overall pick we have...the Boston Celtics.

26th Pick

While you wouldn't expect a lot of All-Stars to come out of the 26th pick, the results are still surprising. In 59 NBA Drafts, the 26th overall pick has produced 1 All-Star appearance: Vlade Divac. Bad news for the Los Angeles Lakers who have that pick this year (although Divac was an ex-Laker, so who knows, it may be good luck for them).


Draft Picks by All Star Appearances and MVP Awards

Notes:
To see the breakdown by players, click on the appropriate pick No. below.
ABA All-Star appearances and MVP's were not included.
All Star Game MVP
Pick No. # Players Selected Total Selections # Players that Won Total MVP's
1 36 199 9 17
2 26 130 4 9
3 25 112 2 9
4 17 80 2 2
5 24 94 2 2
6 18 73 1 3
7 8 24 0 0
8 13 55 0 0
9 12 45 0 0
10 13 47 1 1
11 11 30 0 0
12 8 31 1 1
13 5 26 1 2
14 9 46 0 0
15 2 5 2 2
16 6 15 0 0
17 4 25 0 0
18 7 12 0 0
19 3 8 0 0
20 3 7 0 0
21 5 8 0 0
22 5 12 0 0
23 4 15 0 0
24 4 8 0 0
25 4 8 0 0
26 1 1 0 0
27 3 4 0 0
28 2 4 0 0
29 2 7 0 0
30 2 5 0 0


Date

Thu 06/08/06, 4:54 am EST

Enable Comment Auto-Refresher
ChristofMVP
1270 days ago
Score -2+-
So any player drafted 16 or lower is,in reality, junk! :)
Permalink | Reply
RoblefkoLegend
1270 days ago
Score 0+-
Well 15 also (if you dont count Steve Nash)
Permalink | Reply
JuTMSY4Legend
1270 days ago
Score 1+-
While I love this statistical analysis, I think it may not present as much info as we want. For example, how many times have we had MVP debates. Think about it, only one player can win, so regardless of how MVP #2 does, he doesn't get credit for it. Plus, look at some of the greats. They win the MVP award multiple times, resulting in padding a certain spots stats. The all-star voting is more indicative of what spots are best and even then, it means very little
Permalink | Reply
Davis21wylieMVP
1270 days ago
Score 0+-
<a href="http://hoops...iveworth.htm">Here</a> is a similar article regarding the relative value of each draft pick. He also looks at Hall of Famers at each pick, as well as the average career length of each pick (which can certainly be an indicator of value -- picks that have a lot of busts won't have as long an average career). Still, these studies don't mean a lot, because each draft has a different depth; some drafts (like 2003) have as many as four superstar-type players and the fifth pick can snag a Dwyane Wade, while some drafts (like 2000) have no superstars at all. It all depends on who's available...
Permalink | Reply
Anonymous Fanatic #1
1270 days ago
Score 0+-
Geez, I guess it doesn't look to good for my Warriors at the #9 either. Package and trade up quick, Chris!
Permalink | Reply
Anonymous Fanatic #2
1270 days ago
Score 2+-
I heard the celtics are interested in j.j redick at the 7 spot so if that is true the trend is guaranteed to continue
Permalink | Reply
Anonymous Fanatic #3
1262 days ago
Score 0+-
Larry Bird was the Sixth pick. He's the only MVP on the list and he won it three times. However, he was entered into the draft a year early and likely would have gone one or two the following year (mMagic being the alternative selection). What's my point? While the numbers are interesting, I don't know how much weight to put behind them.
Permalink | Reply
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