Handicapping the NL Rookie of the Year Race
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by user ChiSoxMO30
In my last post, in which I handicapped the AL Race -- a lot of people commented about how it was too early to begin pining about the award. It's never too early to merely discuss who some of the frontrunners are for the ROTY. And plus, we're now at the halfway mark in the 2007 season.
At this juncture of the season, it will be rather difficult for a player to be called up and make a serious run at the award. This means that the future winner is likely to have already appeared this season. So with that, let's take a look all the rookies who have made an impact this season -- and break them off into three tiers.
Tier 1: You can almost bank on the winner coming from this group. But a player from tier two could pull off a late charge.
--Hunter Pence, OF, Houston Astros (.340 AVG, 8 HR, 36 RBI): If the season ended right now, this 24-year-old budding star for the 'Stros would be a shoe-in for the hardware. He is tied among all rookies in the NL with 36 RBIs with Troy Tulowitzki -- but has 70 fewer plate appearances than the Colorado shortstop. Not to mention that Pence is hitting a robust .340, not bad for someone who has 238 ABs. He's on pace to have a monster innagural campaign: .340 AVG, 77 R, 195 H, 50 2B, 19 HR, 77 RBI, 17 SB. It's unlikely he'll get there, sure, but it will take some work for the rest of the field to catch him. One red flag with Pence is his relative inability to draw walks. He has just a .367 OBP % to go along with that ridiculous average.
--Ryan Braun, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers (.346 AVG, 7 HR, 25 RBI): There was a serious clamor to bring this guy up a few months back -- back when the Brew-Crew could do no wrong -- and the decision to do so has paid off in spades for MIL. Braun has put up incredible numbers in such a short time: .346 AVG, 30 R, 13 2B, 7 HR, 25 RBI, 6 SB...all in just 33 games. And if you project that pace out to the rest of the season as a full-time starter, they are extremely impressive: . 346 AVG, 104 R, 159 H, 45 2B, 24 HR, 86 RBI, 21 SB. Once again, Braun probably wont reach even one of those numbers, but he has been better than advertised thus far. Pence has the better numbers -- due to more playing time -- but I think Braun is the better player, and is more likely to sustain the high level of play.
--Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco Giants (3-2, 4.64 ERA): Watch out sluggers, the 22-year-old fireballer is coming -- all 5'11" of him. I had a conversation with a friend of mine a few weeks ago, and he was saying that Lincecum wasn't ready to pitch in the bigs. Oh, really? His last two starts suggest otherwise: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 12 K...and 7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 8 K. Those look like the numbers of a guy who belongs. Of course there's going to be some inconsistency -- he's just a kid learning how to pitch at the highest level. But his stuff is off the charts, and he's getting better and better each time out -- something that must scare NL lineups everywhere. He brings 98 MPH heat, and a stellar curve to the mound each time out, and has struck out 74 hitters in just 66 innings. An NL Rookie of the Year Award would go nicely with the cabinet of CY Young Awards this ace is likely to have when it's all said and done.
--Josh Hamilton, OF, Cincinatti Reds (.273 AVG, 13 HR, 28 RBI): I'm going to spare you the story of Josh Hamilton. If you don't know his story by now, you probably aren't reading this article. Instead of delving into his past, let's look at his present -- and immediate future. If he stays healthy the rest of this season, he's got as good a shot as any to take down the award. He leads all rookies in homers (13) and is third in slugging percentage at .536. He's also terrific in the field, exhibiting his rocket for an arm on a nightly basis. He's the classic five-tool player, and he's got a great future ahead of him. With mostly everyone rooting for him, he could very well win the award even if his numbers are short of what others put up.
--Chris B. Young, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks (.242 AVG, 11 HR, 29 RBI): Speaking of five-tool players, this 23-year-old outfielder for the D-Backs is quite the young offensive threat. A future 30-30 player in the making, Young is on pace for 32 doubles, 23 home runs and 17 stolen bases in his first season. I'm guessing Arizona is a bit disappointed with his .242 average and .284 on base percentage -- but this guy has the talent to raise those numbers in the second half. He's second among all rookies in homers with 11 and fifth in doubles (15) and RBI (29). He may not win the award, but he could very well turn out to be the best all-around player in the group.
--Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies (.281 AVG, 8 HR, 36 RBI): Tulowitzki is quietly putting together a solid rookie campaign over in Colorado. He didn't get off to the best start in the world, but has been on fire of late -- hitting .303 in May and .289 in June. He also slugged 5 home runs in June and slugged .515, after failing to hit one long ball in an otherwise productive May. He's on pace for 94 runs, 166 hits, 25 doubles and 74 RBIs. He doesn't turn 23 until October, and he's only getting better as the months go by. He has been on an absolute tear the past 10 games, going 14-for-40 with 5 homers and 8 RBI.
--Yovani Gallardo, SP, Milwaukee Brewers (1-0, 2.79 ERA): Memo to Milwaukee: don't option this stud back to AAA. In just three starts -- and as a 21-year-old kid -- Gallardo has been just as advertised. He has hurled all quality starts, going for 19.1 innings total -- and allowing 14 hits, 7 walks and striking out 19. Opponents have hit just .200 off of him, and his WHIP is 1.09. If he stays up with the big club (he replaced Chris Capuano when he landed on the DL) he is a serious threat in the race. But he can't afford to get hurt or sent down at any point. One would think Milwaukee knows they need him in the rotation, and he won't go anywhere.
--Justin Germano, SP, San Diego Padres (5-2, 3.12 ERA): I think many are surprised with just how well Germano has been pitching this season. In 10 starts and 60.2 innings pitched, he has a miniscule 1.01 WHIP and a solid .226 BAA. He was acquired off of waivers from the Reds, and was downright awful in his first stint in the bigs -- also with SD -- back in 2004. But it's clear he's turned the corner, and he has a shot at the award. He's certainly off to a quick start, but when it's all said and done, I think his numbers will fall short of Lincecum's and Gallardo's. His cache certainly isn't nearly as high, because his stuff and his hype certainly don't match up with those two.
--James Loney, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers (.415 AVG, 3 HR, 14 RBI): These numbers represent a small sample size -- just 17 games and 53 ABs. But now that Loney is the full-time first baseman for the Dodgers, watch out. What he's doing thus far is no surprise, as he hit .285 with 6 doubles, 5 triples, 4 home runs and 18 RBIs in just 102 ABs last season. This kid is a force with the bat, and can absolutely slug the ball. If he can help the Dodgers make the playoffs, and continue to put up power numbers -- we could be looking at a guy who makes quite the charge to take the crown.
Tier 2: These guys have OK numbers, but more than likely just have too many people to leap-frog for the award. Also, many of these guys haven't been up long enough to have a good chance at doing just that.
--Mark Reynolds, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks (.271 AVG, 5 HR, 21 RBI): This guy started off on a rampage, hitting .424 and driving in 15 runs -- all just in a two week span in May after his call-up to the show. But he has cooled off considerably since then, and no longer plays everyday. He still gets the majority of the starts, but if he keeps hitting like he has been (.162 AVG in June), he won't be in the lineup much at all in the future.
--Yunel Escobar, 3B, Atlanta Braves (.310 AVG, 1 HR, 8 RBI): Escobar has made quite a splash in his first few weeks -- scoring 14 runs and pounding out 8 extra-base hits in just 87 ABs. He has virtually no shot at the award whatsoever due to his lack of power (and the fact that when the team is fully healthy, he will no longer be starting), but he's making a name for himself with his quality stick.
--Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, Atlanta Braves (.330 AVG, 4 HR, 10 RBI): Too bad Atlanta isn't in the AL, because this guy needs a place to play every day. In Hotlanta, he's stuck behind perennial all-star Brian McCann at catcher. And McCann isn't going anywhere, so something has to give. I say play this guy at first base on a regular basis (Scott Thorman isn't as good as Salty is), and let the kid hit. Because we know he will. Maybe he'll get traded, but I don't see Atlanta letting him go. I just want him to play every day so he at least has a shot at winnint the ROY.
--Micah Owings, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks (5-3, 4.42 ERA): Owings got wrecked in his last outing (4 IP, 7 R) and it subsequently wrecked his nice ERA (3.79 to 4.42). But he has still had a very nice season so far, and Arizona wouldn't quite be where they are now without him. He'll be important to their successes this season moving forward.
--Chris Sampson, SP, Houston Astros (6-5, 4.15 ERA): It's tough to ignore a rookie with 6 wins and a solid ERA like that at this point in the season. But his other numbers aren't as pretty (1.31 WHIP, .274 BAA, 13 HR allowed and just 40 K in 95+ IP), so that ERA can be a bit misleading. He has been a workhorse for Houston, on pace for over 180 innings in 31 starts.
--Homer Bailey, SP, Cincinatti Reds (2-2, 8.10 ERA): For the record, I don't think he's quite ready at 21-years-old to be in the bigs -- let alone be the #1 ace that everybody thinks he will be. But this kid has obvious talent, and he has a chance to make some noise if he stays up. But realistically, he has little hope, if any, of winning this award this year. If he gets sent down soon (and he might, after being hammered twice in a row), he could qulaify next season. Either way, I think this kid is going to be the stud that the Reds so desperately need.
--Kevin Cameron, RP, San Diego Padres (0-0, 0.35 ERA): When you allow 1 run in 26 innings, it's hard to go completely unnoticed. But when you're buried in middle relief, it's tough to stand out and get noticed when you play second fiddle to Trevor Hoffman. He needs to cut down on his walks (18), but opponents simply can't touch this guy (.178 BAA). It's more than strange how SD uses him, as he often goes a week at a time without throwing.
--Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, San Diego Padres (.218 AVG, 7 HR, 33 RBI): You have to be pretty good to be on pace for 75 RBI's -- as a rookie, no less -- and to be having a massively disappointing season. The Pads had high hopes for Kevin, trading away their young second baseman, Josh Barfield, to attain his services in the offseason. Ironically, both have struggled mightily with their new teams. But Kouz is likely to start hitting sooner rather than later.
--Jason Hirsh, SP, Colorado Rockies (3-7, 5.21 ERA): Coors Field doesn't help him any, but Hirsh has been wildly inconsistent -- Coors or not (5.63 ERA @ home, 4.79 on road) He's on pace to walk over 80 batters, surrender over 30 long balls and lose 14 games. But this young hurler is a great talent, and will improve with time.
--Mike Fontenot, 2B, Chicago Cubs (.381 AVG, 3 HR, 15 RBI): Where did this guy come from? He already has 14 XBH (8 doubles, 3 triples and 3 home runs) in just 84 ABs, and is slugging .655! A second baseman who is 5-foot-8 and 160 pounds can't keep this up. Right?
--Carlos Ruiz, C, Philadelphia Phillies (.276 AVG, 3 HR, 27 RBI): Any time a rookie catcher is on pace for 38 doubles and 64 RBIs, you have to pay some attention. He has been real clutch for Philly, and a big reason why they are starting to play some real good ball.
--John Van Benschoten, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates (0-2, 4.30 ERA): A top 10 pick about five years back, "JVB" is finally up with the big club -- after briefly appearing in 2004 (1-3, 6.91 ERA in six games). Already 27, JVB doesn't appear to be the #1 guy thet thought he'd be, but he could pitch well enough the rest of the way to get noticed and be put back on the map again.
--Henry Owens, RP, Florida Marlins (2-0, 1.96 ERA): When healthy, Owens has been very good. He has 4 saves, and 16 K in 23 innings to his credit. If, and only if, he retains the closers role for the Fish -- he belongs on tier 2.
Tier 3: Other rookies who you should pay attention to.
- Matt Chico, SP, Washington Nationals (3-5, 4.74 ERA)
- Joe Smith, RP, New York Mets (2-0, 2.90 ERA)
- Rick Vanden Hurk, SP, Florida Marlins (2-2, 8.38 ERA)
- Matt Lindstrom, RP, Florida Marlins (1-2, 3.92 ERA)
- Doug Slaten, RP, Arizona Diamondbacks (3-1, 2.95 ERA)
- Fred Lewis, OF, San Francisco Giants (.253 AVG, 2 HR, 12 RBI)
- Miguel Montero, C, Arizona Diamondbacks (.227 AVG, 5 HR, 20 RBI)
- Chris Iannetta, C, Colorado Rockies (.210 AVG, 2 HR, 15 RBI)
- Carlos Gomez, OF, New York Mets (.255 AVG, 2 HR, 11 RBI)
- Felix Pie, OF, Chicago Cubs (.221 AVG, 2 HR, 18 RBI)
- Jeff Baker, 3B, Colorado Rockies (.232 AVG, 2 HR, 7 RBI)
- Tony Abreu, 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers (.290 AVG, 1 HR, 9 RBI)
- Tony Gwynn, Jr., OF, Milwaukee Brewers (.301 AVG, 0 HR, 8 RBI)
