Handicapping the NL East Race
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by Tmizzle
The entire NL East is off tonight, and I'm watching preseason football. I figure it's as good a time as ever to give an analysis of the three contenders in the NL East. How am I going to do this? I'll go through each position and pick a "winner" from either the Phillies, the Mets, or the Braves.
Position Players:
Brian McCann has easily been the best catcher in the NL East this year. Carlos Ruiz and Paul Lo Duca have been substandard this season, and Lo Duca just recently ended up on the DL (against his will, somehow). Although McCann's numbers are down from their Silver Slugger level of last year, he's still having a decent season for a catcher (.269 average, 12 HR, 67 RBI).
Winner: McCann by a country mile
Carlos Delgado is showing signs of life, but has been unable to produce on a consistent basis, and Mark Teixeira has been raking since he came over from Texas at the trade deadline (4 HR and 12 RBI in 11 games). But last year's MVP, despite leading the league in strikeouts (with 137), is still having a monster season (.282 average, 33 HR, 97 RBI, and a .987 OPS).
Winner: Ryan Howard
If Chase Utley was healthy, this wouldn't even be a discussion. Unfortunately for Phillies fans, he's out until September, so it's down to Kelly Johnson and Luis Castillo. Johnson's having a great season (.298 batting average, a .395 OBP, and 42 XBH), especially taking into consideration that it's his first year playing 2nd base full-time. Castillo's got knee problems and isn't the stolen base threat that he used to be, although his defense is flawless and better than Johnson's and Utley's.
Winner: Johnson, at least until Utley comes back.
On the surface, this would appear to be a tough choice. We automatically discard the Philadelphia platoon of Wes Helms and Greg Dobbs, and whoever else plays third for the Phillies nowadays. This comes down to a head to head matchup between David Wright and Larry Jones. Jones is certainly less durable than Wright, as Wright's played 22 more games than Jones. However, looking at the offensive numbers of the two, Jones has a sizeable lead over Wright. Despite playing in fewer games, Jones has the edge in XBH (51-49), OBP (.428-.395), and over a 100-point edge in OPS (1.024-.916).
Winner: Simply put, Jones is an MVP candidate, and Wright is a level below that at this point.
Wow. There's been plenty written lately about the great shortstops in the NL East. Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, and Edgar Renteria are all in the top 5 of shortstops in the NL. Rollins, of course, brings power (21 HR) and speed (22 SB), while sacrificing OBP (.342). Reyes is the prototypical leadoff hitter, with a high OBP (.378), blazing speed (56 SB), and amazing defense (I don't like defensive metrics, but trust me, he's been outstanding this year). Renteria, although injured right now, has been very good overall, and has the highest batting average (.336) and OBP (.392) of the three. So who do I pick?
Winner: This is a cop-out, but I'm calling a three-way tie at the shortstop position. You try picking a winner from this group.
It's apparent to me that Pat Burrell is hated by everyone. Phillies fans hate him because they think he doesn't earn his huge contract. Mets fans hate him because he earns most of his paycheck against their team. However, since the All-Star break, he's hitting a whopping .396, with a .517 OBP and an astronomical 1.198 OPS. I say give the guy a break. Moises Alou is 41, and can still hit. Unfortunately, he's about as durable as fine china and is not all that reliable. Matt Diaz has been having a solid season, hitting .341, albeit without much power (only 9 HR in 252 ABs).
Winner: Burrell, unfortunately.
Here we have three All-Star outfielders. Aaron Rowand is a better option as a hitter than Albert Pujols (just ask Tony La Russa), Carlos Beltran is a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder, and Andruw Jones used to be, among other things, the best defensive outfielder since Willie Mays. He also used to be good at baseball. Andruw, to the chagrin of Braves fans everywhere, has discovered how much he loves doughnuts and ice cream, and he has suffered in his contract year (.214 average, .309 OBP, and an OPS of .723, his lowest since 1996). Beltran has been injured several times this year, and in spite of this, his power numbers are still respectable, and he has the best speed of the group. Rowand has had the best offensive year of the three outfielders, (.314 average, .385 OBP, .912 OPS), and stands to make a lot of money in the offseason as a free agent. It is the very definition of the contract year.
Winner: Beltran, because he's the best defender and has a better offensive track record than Rowand.
Shawn Green has been a great pickup for the Mets. I love slow right fielders with noodle arms. He will most likely be platooned with Lastings Milledge, who has been so much better this year than last, even taking into account the relatively small sample size. Shane Victorino (aka the Flyin Hawaiian) won a game with a walk-off on his bobblehead day earlier this season. Although that was awesome, he is on the DL and therefore unable to impact the division race for a while. The transformation of Jeff Francoeur has been amazing. He's refined his plate discipline, and in 44 fewer games so far this year, he has already drawn 7 more walks than in 2006. His OBP has risen from .293 last year to .351 this year. Add to that his strong, accurate arm (13 outfield assists, including 2 on Sunday Night Baseball this past weekend), and the choice is pretty easy.
Winner: Francoeur
Pitching
Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies pitch in an extreme hitter's ballpark, and it's reflected in their ERA. The top starters for the Phillies are Cole Hamels (13-5, 3.64 ERA), a legitimate ace, and Jamie Moyer (11-8, 4.68). Brett Myers was their #1 starter heading into the season, but their bullpen was so awful they decided to switch him to closer. Since coming back from injury, he has been serviceable (7 2/3 IP, 3 runs allowed, 2 losses, a win, and a save). The bright spot for the Phillies, in my opinion, is the pitching of Antonio Alfonseca, who has been very good as of late, and had a huge relief outing on Sunday night, getting a couple of big strikeouts. The Phillies pitching is their greatest weakness, and that is reflected in their team ERA, which at 4.69, is good for 13th in the NL.
Atlanta Braves: The top end of the Braves rotation is outstanding, with John Smoltz (10-6, 3.03) and the resurgent Tim Hudson (13-5, 3.01). Chuck James has been better than anticipated this year, with a 9-8 record and a 3.93 ERA. However, the lower end of the rotation consists of Buddy Carlyle (4.39 ERA) and a large black hole in the fifth spot. The bullpen is a gigantic mess for the Braves, and their attempt to reinforce it backfired (Octavio Dotel is on the DL after having been acquired in a trade from the Royals). They have an established (read: old) closer in 38-year-old Bob Wickman, with 19 saves in 24 chances. Not exactly lights-out, but decent. Getting to Wickman is a problem, as Rafael Soriano has given up home runs in his last two outings, and his ERA in August is 7.94. One positive for the Braves bullpen is the play of Peter Moylan, who has been great this season, posting a 1.95 ERA in 64 2/3 innings this year.
New York Mets: Coming into the season, the Mets supposedly needed to be very concerned about their pitching situation. However, of these three teams, the Mets have the greatest depth of quality starting pitching. John Maine (12-7, 3.53) has been excellent, Oliver Perez (10-8, 3.46) has improved by leaps and bounds this year, Orlando Hernandez (7-4, 3.05) has pitched the best of any Mets starter this year, and Tom Glavine (10-6, 4.25) is probably the 4th-best starter in this rotation, despite recently winning his 300th game. The Mets have tried a number of different starters in the fifth spot, the worst being Mike Pelfrey (0-7, 5.92) and the best being Jorge Sosa (8-6, 4.12 ERA, currently in the bullpen). The bullpen has been a little bit of a question mark for the Mets this year, after being so solid last year. Billy Wagner has been outstanding at closer, with 26 saves in 28 chances and a 1.58 ERA. Other than that, Aaron Heilman has been inconsistent, Scott Schoeneweis has been a disaster, and Pedro Feliciano is having less success as of late. In spite of this, the Mets have the second-best team ERA in the NL, with a 3.93 ERA, only trailing the Padres in ERA.
Edge: Mets, and it's not really all that close.
Recap
C- Braves 1B- Phillies 2B- Braves 3B- Braves SS- Push LF- Phillies CF- Mets RF- Braves Pitching- Mets
The Mets have a large edge in pitching, it appears that the Braves have a large edge in position players, and the Phillies are a little screwed by injuries, it seems. All three teams are missing large pieces to injury, and I think that the return of injured players will have huge bearing on the NL East race.
My prediction: A three-game series from September 25-27 between the Braves and Phillies will end in a sweep by Atlanta, and the Mets just hold off the Braves on the last day of the regular season. The Mets take the NL East, the Braves win the Wild Card.
1) New York Mets 2) Atlanta Braves 1 GB 3) Philadelphia Phillies 4 GB
