Handicapping the AL Rookie of the Year Race
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by user ChiSoxMO30
The 2007 season is nearing the halfway point, and contenders for the major awards are starting to emerge from the rest of the pack (see Magglio Ordonez, for AL MVP). Speaking of American League Awards, let's look at the those in contention for the AL Rookie of the Year crown.
This year's class is nowhere near that of 2006 -- one of the best, ever -- but there are a lot of first-year ballplayers who are providing a nice contribution to their respective teams.
Let's begin with some of the guys on the outside, looking in on the frontrunners so far in 2006. These guys have a lot of potential, and are playing OK, but they have far too many superior players (in terms of statistics) to catch up to.
- NUMBERS NOT QUITE THERE:
--John Danks, SP, Chicago White Sox (3-6, 4.61 ERA): Has pitched well at times, but is far too inconsistent -- but that comes with the territory of starting a 22-year-old left-hander. He's going to be a good one, but he will have to endure the struggle.
--Alex Gordon, 3B, Kansas City Royals (.232 AVG, 5 HR, 18 RBI): One of the top hitting prospects in all of baseball, the 23-year-old struggled mightily in the firsst few months of 2007. But he has shown why the Royals started him from the get-go in June, posting vastly improved numbers (.342 AVG in June after .195 in May and .173 in April). It's too late for him now, but he's going to be a star for KC -- something they need in a bad way.
--Joakim Soria, RP, Kansas City Royals (10 SV, 2.73 ERA): Soria provides the perfect example of why the Royals are, well...the Royals. He pitched very well at the end of games, notching 10 saves in 13 opportunities. No, not the best save rate in the world, but this is a 23-year-old who has held opponents to a .206 BAA and has struck out 32 batters in 29.2 innings pitched. So yeah, let's close with the injury-prione and ageing Octavio Dotel. Makes all the sense in the world.
--Adam Lind, OF, Toronto Blue Jays (.224 AVG, 8 HR, 26 RBI): He's got serious power. That's about it -- evidenced by his unseenly-low .271 OBP and batting average. But when you have a lot of power and only manage to slug .393...there's a problem. But he's only 23, and has plenty of time to find the rest of his game. Plus, he's on Toronto -- they have all the time in the World to wait, because they aren't in any danger of actually competing in the AL East for once.
--Travis Buck, OF, Oakland Athletics (.281 AVG. 6 HR, 20 RBI): Buck fits the Billy Beane mold -- young (23), inexpensive (300K) and willing to take a walk (.381 OBP%). Add to that fact that he's a left-handed hitter, and Beane will keep him around for awhile.
--Elijah Dukes, OF, Tampa Bay Devil Rays (.190 AVG, 10 HR, 21 RBI): The guy has talent -- no question about that. The question remains whether or not the guy is going to kill someone or not anytime soon. Him and his 10 HRs were just put on the inactive list. Hopefully this kid -- and I do emphasize kid -- will figure things out. Because he's got some serious potential.
--Brian Bannister, SP, Kansas City Royals (4-3, 3.21 ERA): The Royals will take any pitcher with a pulse -- and anything better than a 5.00 ERA is just gravy for them. So his 3.21 ERA looks more like Johan Santana to them than it does Tom Glavine. Kidding aside, Bannister has been a nice surprise for KC. Now, if they just realized Greinke needs to go back into the rotation -- they would have another respectable young starter. But they keep wasting him in the sixth inning.
- TIME NOT ON THEIR SIDE: aka an injury, late call-up, or poor position (RP) will make it almost impossible to win:
--Josh Fields, 3B, Chicago White Sox (.278 AVG, 2 HR, 9 RBI): The injury to Joe Crede was a big blow to an already meager White Sox lineup -- but, it could also be a blessing in disguise for the South Siders. Fields, the former starting QB for Oklahoma State is an even better prospect on the diamond than on the hashmarks. He'sa terrific young hitter, and he's going to have the next 100 games to prove it. He's already done nicely so far.
--Brandon Morrow, RP, Seattle Mariners (3-1, 3.51 ERA): He started off white-hot for the M's, but has really been awful the past three weeks. The only thing that's keeping the 22-year-old baby face from being dominant is the lack of control. He has more than a strikeout per inning so far (26 K in 25.2 innings) but he has also been all over the place -- walking 27 hitters already! The command will come as he grows, and he has future stud (whether its as a closer, or as a starter) written all over him.
--Phil Hughes, SP, New York Yankees (1-1, 3.38 ERA): Who could forget his second start of his career back on May 1. Hughes was into the 7th inning carrying a no-hitter against the Rangers before leaving the game with an injury. He's been hurt ever since, but that has no affect on him being one of the best pitching prospects in all the game. Finally, a home-grown Yankees pitcher...don't see those very often.
--Kevin Slowey, SP, Minnesota Twins (2-0, 4.43 ERA): The Twins continually crank out pitching prospects. It's uncanny. Slowey is yet another one, and he seems special just like Santana, Liriano and Matt Garza. Just check out his numbers in AAA: 6-2, 1.54 ERA in 9 starts. That's the worst part, too. Get this: 57 strikeouts and 5 walks in 64.1 innings. 5 walks! Nothing wrong with an 11-1 strikeout/walk ratio. Incredible.
--Andrew Miller, SP, Detroit Tigers (2-1, 3.63 ERA): Where are all these 22-year-olds coming from? It's not fair that they're accomplishing this much already. I'm 21, and all I can do is write about them. Anyway, Miller is a stud left-handed prospect in an already-loaded Tigers rotation. The Tigers are going to be good for years to come, and he's most likely going to be a big part of that.
--Billy Butler, DH, Kansas City Royals (.237 AVG, 0 HR, 4 RBI): He's listed as an OF'er, but we all know this guy is going to be a DH. And his time as the regular DH appears to be now -- now that Mike Sweeney has went back on the DL for the 135th time. He should just throw away his glove, because all this kid can do is hit. But that is fine with the Royals, because they never have guys that can even do that.
- IN THE HUNT: the odds-on favorites, in no particular order
--Delmon Young, OF, Tampa Bay Devil Rays (.277 AVG, 9 HR, 44 RBI): Young hasn't been quite as good as some projected he would be this season -- but that's more of a testament of how incredible he can become than it is about his performance. Any rookie on pace for 21 HR and 94 RBI at this point of the season is doing just fine. Young is an absolute stud all-around, boasting terrific speed and a rocket for an arm. He is the epitome of a five-tool player. Look for him to really break out in the second half.
--Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, Boston Red Sox (9-5, 4.01 ERA): If you don't count the posting fee the Red Sox paid just to talk to him, Dice-K has been worth every penny. But when you consider Boston paid $100 million for his services, he has disappointed just a little. He's still adjusting, but this young man is going to be an ace for years. His 102 strikeouts in 98+ innings are a tell-tale sign of just that. He may very well win 20 games this year. I think the Red Sox will take that.
--Jeremy Guthrie, SP, Baltimore Orioles (4-1, 2.42 ERA): Guthrie is second in the AL in ERA -- not bad for a rookie, even though he's 28-years-old. He's been downright un-hittable, holding opponents down to a .204 batting average. His WHIP leads all of baseball, at 0.89 and he's allowed just five longballs in 81.2 innings. He was always a top-notch prospect, but who could have suspected this? One has to think his numbers will drift back to normality. A couple more good starts before the All-Star break, and Ron Gardenhire has to make room for him on the roster.
--Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox (.323 AVG, 3 HR, 23 RBI): Mark it down...he will NOT win Rookie of the Year. I know he's hitting .323. That's all well and good. But he's a singles hitter, with NO speed (0 SB) and NO power. He has just three home runs and just 29 runs scored. He's not a phenemonal defensive player, either. And I highly doubt he can sustain this average for the entire season. I don't want to take away all of his successes, but I can't help but believe he is being overrated simply because he plays in Boston and that he's a 5'9" scrappy ballplayer. Let's be real, he's nothing but an average player, at best. You're just mad, because I'm right.
--Brian Burres, SP, Baltimore Orioles (3-2. 2.94 ERA): The Orioles have the makings of a terrific young rotation with Burres, Guthrie and Erik Bedard in the fold. Burres has had bad luck, with the Orioles bullpen seemingly blowing every single game for him. He's had six straight starts in which he's allowed three or less runs. He needs to cut down on those walks, but all of his other numbers are pretty solid.
--Reggie Willits, OF, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (.347 AVG, 0 HR, 22 RBI): Willits' numbers are quite comparable to Pedroia's, but he has been much more valuable to his team than Dustin has been to Boston. Reggie does more things for his team, such as scoring runs (38 to to Dustin's 29), stealing bases (18 to Dustin's 0) and getting on base (.441 OBP% to Dustin's .399). Willits ranks 3rd in the AL in hitting and in OBP, and sixth in steals. He has been the spark in LA's lineup, and is intregal to their successes at the plate. He's also on fire lately, going 12-for-22 in his last six games. I jsut don't see him sustaining the average or OBP % THAT high. But he will continue to be a force wherever he is in the order.
--Hideki Okajima, RP, Boston Red Sox (2-0, 0.98 ERA): Okajima was an afterthought this offseason, with all the focus being paid to Dice-K. But he's been even better than his Japanese teammate in many respects. Usually, any left-handed pitcher with just a pulse has a place in the Major Leagues, just think how valuable a guy with an ERA under one is. His WHIP is 0.79 and he has 33 K in 36+ innings. Nobody can hit the guy, as he's held opponents to a .151 batting average. A pretty good afterthought, don't you think?
--Akinori Iwamura, 3B, Tampa Bay Devil Rays (.313 AVG, 2 HR, 11 RBI): Maybe I should have put him in the "Time not on their side" category, but I feel he still has enough time to make up for his stint on the DL. He does it all at the hot corner for TB, and even though he missed 25 games or so -- he's still on pace for 99 runs, 25 doubles, 11 triples and 18 stolen bases. That's incredible. He also plays a solid third base for the D-Rays. He has good plate discipline, too -- with a .414 OBP %.
Sense a theme here? Seven of the eight top candidates call the AL East home. And three of these eight rookies have come over from Japan. Should they be considered rookies, or not? Personally, I'd prefer them not to be, but I have no real problem with it.
My prediction: Dice-K wins it. Many voters tend to shy away from voting for Japanse players (because they aren't rookies in terms of playing professional baseball), they will be hard-pressed to pass on a man who will likely win at least 17 games. However, if Dice-K falters a bit, I think Delmon Young will have a superb second-half -- and steal the award away from Matsuzaka. I'm sure some voters will just look for any reason to give it to a "true rookie".
- APOLOGIES TO: These are the remaining rookies who have seen the field at some point this season. They have no shot. Some have done well (Casilla, Mastny) but most have been sent up and down and won't start for their respective teams.
--Rafael Perez (CLE), Glen Perkins (MIN), Santiago Casilla (OAK), Tom Mastny (CLE), Andy Sonnanstine (TB), Dustin Moseley (LAA), Eric O'Flaherty (SEA), Curtis Thigpen (TOR), Ryan Sweeney (CHW), Jon Knott (TEX), Josh Wilson (TB)
