Handicapping the 2007 Chase for the Cup
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by J Cunningham
For the second time in the four-year history of the NASCAR Chase For The Nextel Cup, the sport's biggest star -- that would be Dale Earnhardt Jr., for those of you scoring at home -- will miss out on a chance at his first championship. It wasn't that Junior didn't run well this season -- he did, but constant off-the-track distractions, endless motor failures and a nifty 100-point penalty did him in.
So with Earnhardt doomed to finish no better than 13th in the final Nextel Cup standings, NASCAR would call off the Chase, right? Actually, no.
The Chase format is different this year; first of all, there are 12 eligible drivers, whereas last year there were 10. This is undoubtedly in response to the fact that last year, Tony Stewart missed the Chase. The year before, both Earnhardt Jr. and Jeff Gordon missed out. So NASCAR expands the field to avoid its big stars losing out ... and one still does.
Good job, guys.
Also new to the Chase is a seeding system -- of sorts. For every "regular-season" race a Chase-eligible driver won this season, he received 10 points. After this past weekend's race at Richmond, all Chase drivers had their point totals reset to 5,000, with 10 points added on for each victory. Jimmie Johnson, by virtue of his series-high six wins (including two straight to close out the regular season), is the Chase's top seed with 5,060 points.
Gordon, with four wins, is 20 points back with 5,040. Clint Bowyer sits 12th in the standings with 5,000 points, having not won a race this season (he has, though, completed every lap on the schedule and avoided DNFs).
Also adding to the drama is the fact that five out of the 10 Chase races will be run with the new Car of Tomorrow. This narturally gives the advantage to the Hendrick (Johnson, Gordon, Kyle Busch) and Gibbs (Stewart, Denny Hamlin) drivers, who've been the strongest whenever the car's been run so far this season. This could also spell trouble for Roush-Fenway drivers Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth, who haven't been as strong in CoT races.
So before the Nextel Cup Series gets things started this weekend at New Hampshire, let's look at the Chase field.
1. Jimmie Johnson (6 wins, 5,060 points): The defending Nextel Cup champion had his annual summer slump, but pulled it together with wins at California and Richmond to close out the regular season. Crew chief Chad Knaus is a bit hesitant to get fancy with car setups after his six-week suspension earlier this season, which might have an impact, but Johnson runs very well this time of year.
But don't for a moment think he's a clear favorite.
2. Jeff Gordon (4 wins, 5,040 points): Held the points lead for 21 of the last 24 weeks before the end of the Richmond race. Though he hasn't won in over four months, Gordon is still consistent and a threat every week. He was dominant in the Richmond race before giving way to Johnson during a round of pit stops, and look for him to fight for title No. 5 with the same vigor as before.
He's strong at just about every track in the Chase, except Texas, so ... look out.
3. Tony Stewart (3 wins, 5,030 points): Stewart got off to a slow start, but once the calendar creeped up to August, he hit another gear. Back-to-back wins at Chicagoland and the Brickyard, along with a win at Watkins Glen, put Stewart is prime position to add a third series championship to his trophy case.
Stewart is strong everywhere the series runs in the Chase, and will be a definite threat.
4. Carl Edwards (2 wins, 5,020 points): Edwards is back to his usual back-flipping form, coming off wins at Michigan and Bristol -- the latter being a CoT race. Roush-Fenway hasn't found the handle on the new car yet this season, which could wind up being Edwards' undoing, but he does have that CoT win.
But Edwards isn't the strongest at Martinsville or Talladega, the potential wild-card -- and CoT -- races.
5. Kurt Busch (2 wins, 5,020 points): The 2004 Chase champion used a scorching August run to secure his seeding in the Chase. Wins at Pocono and Michigan catapulted Busch from a fight with Earnhardt Jr. for the 12th spot all the way into one of the top seeds with his two wins. New crew chief Pat Tryson has been a godsend for this team.
Busch is strong at most of the tracks left on the schedule, but can Penske really keep up with Hendrick and Gibbs?
6. Denny Hamlin (1 win, 5,010 points): Hamlin suffered no sophomore slump, winning at Loudon and challenging Gordon for the points lead for much of the year. He might've had more wins had he not played it safe on the race track, choosing to keep his equipment solid for the Chase.
Hamlin has the talent and cars, but his pit crew has done him in one too many times this year.
7. Martin Truex Jr. (1 win, 5,010 points): Quick, who thought this would be the Dale Earnhardt Inc. driver to make the Chase this year? If you said you, you're lying. But Truex has carried the DEI flag nicely since Earnhardt Jr. announced his departure at the end of the season, running consistently and picking up his first career win at Dover.
But though he's won two Busch titles, this isn't Truex's time.
8. Matt Kenseth (1 win, 5,010 points): Another consistent, if unspectacular, year for Kenseth. A win at California and the same solid performance you come to expect from the No. 17 team -- particularly on pit road.
But Car of Tomorrow struggles have doomed this team. Look for that trend to continue.
9. Kyle Busch (1 win, 5,010 points): I wonder how many wins Kyle would have if he'd kept his temper in check at times this season. A lame duck at Hendrick -- and on his way to Gibbs next year -- Kyle has all the talent in the world, but his attitude often gets in the way of that.
And it will do so again at some point in the next 10 races.
10. Jeff Burton (1 win, 5,010 points): An early win at Texas made it seem as if Burton -- who's made his second straight Chase -- would be a force, and with his consistency, he might still be.
But I get the feeling he and his team aren't getting the most out of that Richard Childress equipment.
11. Kevin Harvick (1 win, 5,010 points): Harvick won the Daytona 500 back in February and appeared prime to make his first serious title run. But inconsistency and bad luck on the track have kept him from doing much more than keeping himself in the Top 12.
That said, he has a chance ... just keep him away from Juan Pablo Montoya.
12. Clint Bowyer (no wins, 5,000 points): Bowyer has been consistent -- finishing every lap so far in 2007 -- if not spectacular. Sadly, his upside-down, on-fire finish in the Daytona 500 might be the highlight of his season.
Bowyer is good, and the wins and title contention will come ... just not this year.
My Winner: Jeff Gordon.
