Hall Monitor: Monk vs. Irvin
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by user Davis21wylie
Michael Irvin
The news that Michael Irvin had been inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame over Art Monk seemed to irk more than a few people here at ArmchairGM, so I thought I'd add some fuel to the debate by posting my advanced stats for each of the players in the current wide receiver debate.
(It's also an excuse for me to promote Doug Drinen's incredible NFL stats database, which he generously makes available to everyone for free. Without his database, none of these stats would have been possible.)
Remember, these numbers have all been normalized to the 2005 offensive environment (2005, because that's when I developed these statistical methods), so WR's that played in less pass-happy eras will see their numbers inflated to reflect recent rules changes, etc.
Also, under each player is their "JAWS" score; similar to what User:Bball3345 did in articles like this, I computed a sort of "Hall of Fame Monitor" type of score for the players. In this case, JAWS = ((Career PAR + Peak PAR) / 2), where each player's "Peak" is the total PAR in their six best seasons. For reference's sake, let's begin with the benchmark for all WR performances -- the GOAT...
Surname Name Season Team Pos G Plays TAY Net Pts Pts/Ply PAR PAR/G WARP ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rice Jerry 1985 sfo wr 16 32.5 494.5 41.21 1.268 33.64 2.10 0.84 Rice Jerry 1986 sfo wr 16 55.0 907.0 75.58 1.374 62.77 3.92 1.57 Rice Jerry 1987 sfo wr 12 42.5 677.0 56.42 1.327 46.51 3.88 1.16 Rice Jerry 1988 sfo wr 16 48.0 808.0 67.33 1.403 56.15 3.51 1.40 Rice Jerry 1989 sfo wr 16 49.0 819.5 68.29 1.394 56.87 3.55 1.42 Rice Jerry 1990 sfo wr 16 58.5 840.5 70.04 1.197 56.41 3.53 1.41 Rice Jerry 1991 sfo wr 16 44.0 690.5 57.54 1.308 47.29 2.96 1.18 Rice Jerry 1992 sfo wr 16 55.5 762.0 63.50 1.144 50.57 3.16 1.26 Rice Jerry 1993 sfo wr 16 53.5 922.5 76.88 1.437 64.41 4.03 1.61 Rice Jerry 1994 sfo wr 16 62.0 904.0 75.33 1.215 60.89 3.81 1.52 Rice Jerry 1995 sfo wr 16 62.5 973.0 81.08 1.297 66.52 4.16 1.66 Rice Jerry 1996 sfo wr 16 65.0 744.5 62.04 0.954 46.90 2.93 1.17 Rice Jerry 1997 sfo wr 2 4.5 34.0 2.83 0.630 1.78 0.89 0.04 Rice Jerry 1998 sfo wr 16 43.0 611.0 50.92 1.184 40.90 2.56 1.02 Rice Jerry 1999 sfo wr 16 35.0 435.5 36.29 1.037 28.14 1.76 0.70 Rice Jerry 2000 sfo wr 16 38.5 428.5 35.71 0.927 26.74 1.67 0.67 Rice Jerry 2001 rai wr 16 41.5 607.0 50.58 1.219 40.91 2.56 1.02 Rice Jerry 2002 rai wr 16 46.5 631.0 52.58 1.131 41.75 2.61 1.04 Rice Jerry 2003 rai wr 16 32.5 453.5 37.79 1.163 30.22 1.89 0.76 Rice Jerry 2004 sea wr 13 12.5 190.5 15.88 1.270 12.96 1.00 0.32 Rice Jerry 2004 rai wr 4 2.5 32.5 2.71 1.083 2.13 0.53 0.05 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Career 303 884.5 12966.5 1080.53 1.222 874.46 2.89 21.82 6 Best Seasons 96 340.5 5366.5 447.2 1.313 367.87 3.83 9.19 JAWS 621.17 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Man, what a great career. Now that we've seen an example of how the JAWS system works, we can move on to the current candidates...
Surname Name Season Team Pos G Plays TAY Net Pts Pts/Ply PAR PAR/G WARP ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Irvin Michael 1988 dal wr 14 19.0 354.5 29.54 1.555 25.11 1.79 0.63 Irvin Michael 1989 dal wr 6 15.0 196.5 16.38 1.092 12.88 2.15 0.32 Irvin Michael 1990 dal wr 12 11.5 238.0 19.83 1.725 17.15 1.43 0.43 Irvin Michael 1991 dal wr 16 50.0 819.5 68.29 1.366 56.64 3.54 1.42 Irvin Michael 1992 dal wr 16 44.5 772.5 64.38 1.447 54.01 3.38 1.35 Irvin Michael 1993 dal wr 16 47.0 719.5 59.96 1.276 49.01 3.06 1.23 Irvin Michael 1994 dal wr 16 38.5 625.5 52.13 1.354 43.15 2.70 1.08 Irvin Michael 1995 dal wr 16 52.5 787.5 65.63 1.250 53.39 3.34 1.33 Irvin Michael 1996 dal wr 11 32.0 482.5 40.21 1.257 32.75 2.98 0.82 Irvin Michael 1997 dal wr 16 39.0 632.0 52.67 1.350 43.58 2.72 1.09 Irvin Michael 1998 dal wr 16 40.0 528.0 44.00 1.100 34.68 2.17 0.87 Irvin Michael 1999 dal wr 4 5.0 95.0 7.92 1.583 6.75 1.69 0.17 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Career 159 394 6251 520.94 1.322 429.10 2.70 10.74 6 Best Seasons 96 271.5 4356.5 363.06 1.337 299.78 3.12 7.50 JAWS 364.44 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Surname Name Season Team Pos G Plays TAY Net Pts Pts/Ply PAR PAR/G WARP ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Monk Art 1980 was wr 16 32.5 421.0 35.08 1.079 27.51 1.72 0.69 Monk Art 1981 was wr 16 32.0 464.0 38.67 1.208 31.21 1.95 0.78 Monk Art 1982 was wr 9 25.0 246.0 20.50 0.820 14.68 1.63 0.37 Monk Art 1983 was wr 12 28.0 370.5 30.88 1.103 24.35 2.03 0.61 Monk Art 1984 was wr 16 58.0 702.0 58.50 1.009 44.99 2.81 1.12 Monk Art 1985 was wr 15 55.5 646.5 53.88 0.971 40.94 2.73 1.02 Monk Art 1986 was wr 16 43.0 562.0 46.83 1.089 36.81 2.30 0.92 Monk Art 1987 was wr 9 25.5 318.0 26.50 1.039 20.56 2.28 0.51 Monk Art 1988 was wr 16 46.0 541.5 45.13 0.981 34.41 2.15 0.86 Monk Art 1989 was wr 16 49.0 614.0 51.17 1.044 39.75 2.48 0.99 Monk Art 1990 was wr 16 45.5 480.5 40.04 0.880 29.44 1.84 0.74 Monk Art 1991 was wr 16 47.0 598.5 49.88 1.061 38.92 2.43 0.97 Monk Art 1992 was wr 16 31.5 403.0 33.58 1.066 26.24 1.64 0.66 Monk Art 1993 was wr 16 22.0 210.5 17.54 0.797 12.42 0.78 0.31 Monk Art 1994 nyj wr 16 22.5 293.5 24.46 1.087 19.22 1.20 0.48 Monk Art 1995 phi wr 3 3.0 53.0 4.42 1.472 3.72 1.24 0.09 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Career 224 566 6924.5 577.06 1.020 445.17 1.99 11.12 6 Best Seasons 95 298.5 3664.5 305.39 1.023 235.82 2.48 5.88 JAWS 340.50 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Surname Name Season Team Pos G Plays TAY Net Pts Pts/Ply PAR PAR/G WARP ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reed Andre 1985 buf wr 16 29.0 335.5 27.96 0.964 21.20 1.33 0.53 Reed Andre 1986 buf wr 15 31.5 384.0 32.00 1.016 24.66 1.64 0.62 Reed Andre 1987 buf wr 12 32.0 388.0 32.33 1.010 24.88 2.07 0.62 Reed Andre 1988 buf wr 15 45.5 573.5 47.79 1.050 37.19 2.48 0.93 Reed Andre 1989 buf wr 16 49.0 701.0 58.42 1.192 47.00 2.94 1.17 Reed Andre 1990 buf wr 16 43.0 551.0 45.92 1.068 35.90 2.24 0.90 Reed Andre 1991 buf wr 16 55.5 763.0 63.58 1.146 50.65 3.17 1.27 Reed Andre 1992 buf wr 16 44.0 566.0 47.17 1.072 36.91 2.31 0.92 Reed Andre 1993 buf wr 15 35.5 488.5 40.71 1.147 32.44 2.16 0.81 Reed Andre 1994 buf wr 16 54.0 759.0 63.25 1.171 50.67 3.17 1.27 Reed Andre 1995 buf wr 6 18.5 209.5 17.46 0.944 13.15 2.19 0.33 Reed Andre 1996 buf wr 16 41.0 561.5 46.79 1.141 37.24 2.33 0.93 Reed Andre 1997 buf wr 15 34.0 473.5 39.46 1.161 31.54 2.10 0.79 Reed Andre 1998 buf wr 15 33.0 417.5 34.79 1.054 27.10 1.81 0.68 Reed Andre 1999 buf wr 16 26.0 261.0 21.75 0.837 15.69 0.98 0.39 Reed Andre 2000 was wr 6 5.0 55.5 4.63 0.925 3.46 0.58 0.09 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Career 227 576.5 7488 624.01 1.082 489.68 2.16 12.25 6 Best Seasons 95 289 3924 327 1.131 259.66 2.73 6.49 JAWS 374.67 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Surname Name Season Team Pos G Plays TAY Net Pts Pts/Ply PAR PAR/G WARP ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Carter Cris 1987 phi wr 9 2.5 51.0 4.25 1.700 3.67 0.41 0.09 Carter Cris 1988 phi wr 16 23.0 412.0 34.33 1.493 28.97 1.81 0.72 Carter Cris 1989 phi wr 16 26.0 359.5 29.96 1.152 23.90 1.49 0.60 Carter Cris 1990 min wr 16 17.5 234.0 19.50 1.114 15.42 0.96 0.39 Carter Cris 1991 min wr 16 38.5 519.5 43.29 1.124 34.32 2.15 0.86 Carter Cris 1992 min wr 12 34.5 412.0 34.33 0.995 26.29 2.19 0.66 Carter Cris 1993 min wr 16 44.0 592.5 49.38 1.122 39.12 2.45 0.98 Carter Cris 1994 min wr 16 60.0 637.5 53.13 0.885 39.15 2.45 0.98 Carter Cris 1995 min wr 16 58.5 715.0 59.58 1.019 45.95 2.87 1.15 Carter Cris 1996 min wr 16 48.0 621.0 51.75 1.078 40.57 2.54 1.01 Carter Cris 1997 min wr 16 46.0 596.5 49.71 1.081 38.99 2.44 0.97 Carter Cris 1998 min wr 16 42.0 553.0 46.08 1.097 36.30 2.27 0.91 Carter Cris 1999 min wr 16 44.5 653.0 54.42 1.223 44.05 2.75 1.10 Carter Cris 2000 min wr 16 48.0 671.0 55.92 1.165 44.73 2.80 1.12 Carter Cris 2001 min wr 16 37.5 464.0 38.67 1.031 29.93 1.87 0.75 Carter Cris 2002 mia wr 5 4.0 36.5 3.04 0.760 2.11 0.42 0.05 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Career 234 574.5 7528 627.34 1.092 493.47 2.11 12.34 6 Best Seasons 96 303 3890 324.18 1.070 253.57 2.64 6.34 JAWS 373.52 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Surname Name Season Team Pos G Plays TAY Net Pts Pts/Ply PAR PAR/G WARP ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brown Tim 1988 rai wr 16 37.0 444.0 37.00 1.000 28.38 1.77 0.71 Brown Tim 1989 rai wr 1 0.5 4.0 0.33 0.667 0.22 0.22 0.01 Brown Tim 1990 rai wr 16 10.0 152.0 12.67 1.267 10.34 0.65 0.26 Brown Tim 1991 rai wr 16 24.5 329.0 27.42 1.119 21.71 1.36 0.54 Brown Tim 1992 rai wr 15 30.0 404.0 33.67 1.122 26.68 1.78 0.67 Brown Tim 1993 rai wr 16 43.0 645.0 53.75 1.250 43.73 2.73 1.09 Brown Tim 1994 rai wr 16 43.5 673.0 56.08 1.289 45.95 2.87 1.15 Brown Tim 1995 rai wr 16 42.0 666.5 55.54 1.322 45.76 2.86 1.14 Brown Tim 1996 rai wr 16 51.0 623.0 51.92 1.018 40.03 2.50 1.00 Brown Tim 1997 rai wr 16 59.0 744.5 62.04 1.052 48.29 3.02 1.21 Brown Tim 1998 rai wr 16 43.5 532.5 44.38 1.020 34.24 2.14 0.86 Brown Tim 1999 rai wr 16 45.5 676.0 56.33 1.238 45.73 2.86 1.14 Brown Tim 2000 rai wr 16 41.0 621.5 51.79 1.263 42.24 2.64 1.06 Brown Tim 2001 rai wr 16 49.0 659.0 54.92 1.121 43.50 2.72 1.09 Brown Tim 2002 rai wr 16 44.5 475.0 39.58 0.890 29.21 1.83 0.73 Brown Tim 2003 rai wr 16 26.5 299.5 24.96 0.942 18.78 1.17 0.47 Brown Tim 2004 tam wr 15 12.0 102.0 8.50 0.708 5.70 0.38 0.14 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Career 255 602.5 8050.5 670.88 1.113 530.49 2.08 13.27 6 Best Seasons 96 282 4064 338.66 1.201 272.96 2.84 6.82 JAWS 401.73 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Surname Name Season Team Pos G Plays TAY Net Pts Pts/Ply PAR PAR/G WARP ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Smith Jimmy 1992 dal wr 7 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 Smith Jimmy 1994 phi wr 1 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 Smith Jimmy 1995 jax wr 16 10.5 148.5 12.38 1.179 9.93 0.62 0.25 Smith Jimmy 1996 jax wr 16 41.5 646.0 53.83 1.297 44.16 2.76 1.10 Smith Jimmy 1997 jax wr 16 42.5 678.5 56.54 1.330 46.64 2.91 1.17 Smith Jimmy 1998 jax wr 16 41.0 618.5 51.54 1.257 41.99 2.62 1.05 Smith Jimmy 1999 jax wr 16 57.5 811.5 67.63 1.176 54.23 3.39 1.36 Smith Jimmy 2000 jax wr 15 45.5 636.0 53.00 1.165 42.40 2.83 1.06 Smith Jimmy 2001 jax wr 16 56.5 714.5 59.54 1.054 46.38 2.90 1.16 Smith Jimmy 2002 jax wr 16 39.0 525.5 43.79 1.123 34.70 2.17 0.87 Smith Jimmy 2003 jax wr 12 27.5 431.0 35.92 1.306 29.51 2.46 0.74 Smith Jimmy 2004 jax wr 16 37.0 592.5 49.38 1.334 40.75 2.55 1.02 Smith Jimmy 2005 jax wr 16 35.0 541.5 45.13 1.289 36.97 2.31 0.92 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Career 179 433.5 6344 528.68 1.220 427.66 2.39 10.7 6 Best Seasons 95 284.5 4105 342.08 1.202 275.8 2.90 6.9 JAWS 351.73 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Surname Name Season Team Pos G Plays TAY Net Pts Pts/Ply PAR PAR/G WARP ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ellard Henry 1983 ram wr 12 11.5 136.0 11.33 0.986 8.65 0.72 0.22 Ellard Henry 1984 ram wr 16 21.0 322.5 26.88 1.280 21.98 1.37 0.55 Ellard Henry 1985 ram wr 16 32.0 422.5 35.21 1.100 27.75 1.73 0.69 Ellard Henry 1986 ram wr 9 19.0 222.0 18.50 0.974 14.07 1.56 0.35 Ellard Henry 1987 ram wr 12 28.5 409.0 34.08 1.196 27.44 2.29 0.69 Ellard Henry 1988 ram wr 16 49.0 764.0 63.67 1.299 52.25 3.27 1.31 Ellard Henry 1989 ram wr 14 39.5 709.5 59.13 1.497 49.92 3.57 1.25 Ellard Henry 1990 ram wr 15 45.0 709.0 59.08 1.313 48.60 3.24 1.21 Ellard Henry 1991 ram wr 16 34.5 550.0 45.83 1.329 37.79 2.36 0.94 Ellard Henry 1992 ram wr 16 26.0 401.0 33.42 1.285 27.36 1.71 0.68 Ellard Henry 1993 ram wr 16 33.5 506.5 42.21 1.260 34.40 2.15 0.86 Ellard Henry 1994 was wr 16 37.5 695.0 57.92 1.544 49.18 3.07 1.23 Ellard Henry 1995 was wr 15 26.5 490.5 40.88 1.542 34.70 2.31 0.87 Ellard Henry 1996 was wr 16 26.0 508.0 42.33 1.628 36.28 2.27 0.91 Ellard Henry 1997 was wr 16 16.5 261.0 21.75 1.318 17.91 1.12 0.45 Ellard Henry 1998 nwe wr 5 2.5 42.5 3.54 1.417 2.96 0.59 0.07 Ellard Henry 1998 was wr 2 1.0 14.5 1.21 1.208 0.98 0.49 0.02 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Career 228 449.5 7163.5 596.97 1.328 492.22 2.16 12.3 6 Best Seasons 93 231.5 3935.5 327.96 1.417 274.02 2.95 6.85 JAWS 383.12 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Surname Name Season Team Pos G Plays TAY Net Pts Pts/Ply PAR PAR/G WARP ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fryar Irving 1984 nwe wr 14 8.0 73.5 6.13 0.766 4.26 0.30 0.11 Fryar Irving 1985 nwe wr 16 27.0 391.5 32.63 1.208 26.33 1.65 0.66 Fryar Irving 1986 nwe wr 14 27.0 462.0 38.50 1.426 32.21 2.30 0.81 Fryar Irving 1987 nwe wr 12 25.0 295.0 24.58 0.983 18.76 1.56 0.47 Fryar Irving 1988 nwe wr 15 24.5 281.5 23.46 0.957 17.75 1.18 0.44 Fryar Irving 1989 nwe wr 11 17.5 286.0 23.83 1.362 19.76 1.80 0.49 Fryar Irving 1990 nwe wr 16 32.5 458.0 38.17 1.174 30.59 1.91 0.76 Fryar Irving 1991 nwe wr 16 38.5 541.5 45.13 1.172 36.15 2.26 0.90 Fryar Irving 1992 nwe wr 15 31.5 446.0 37.17 1.180 29.83 1.99 0.75 Fryar Irving 1993 mia wr 16 36.0 532.5 44.38 1.233 35.99 2.25 0.90 Fryar Irving 1994 mia wr 16 36.0 644.5 53.71 1.492 45.32 2.83 1.13 Fryar Irving 1995 mia wr 16 29.5 456.5 38.04 1.290 31.17 1.95 0.78 Fryar Irving 1996 phi wr 16 45.0 637.5 53.13 1.181 42.64 2.67 1.07 Fryar Irving 1997 phi wr 16 44.5 684.5 57.04 1.282 46.67 2.92 1.17 Fryar Irving 1998 phi wr 16 28.0 330.5 27.54 0.984 21.02 1.31 0.53 Fryar Irving 1999 was wr 16 13.0 131.5 10.96 0.843 7.93 0.50 0.20 Fryar Irving 2000 was wr 14 22.5 310.5 25.88 1.150 20.63 1.47 0.52 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Career 255 486 6963 580.28 1.194 467.01 1.83 11.69 6 Best Seasons 94 227 3502.5 291.89 1.286 238.98 2.54 5.98 JAWS 353.00 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
According to JAWS, Monk wasn't shafted at all. In fact, the guy with the most legit beef would have actually been Tim Brown (had he been eligible, that is), as his JAWS score of 401.73 dwarfs everyone else under consideration. JAWS also says that Henry Ellard, Andre Reed, and Cris Carter (in that order) also are more hall-worthy than Monk.
Obviously, this method is by no means the final word on the debate; however, I wanted to add another set of data points to the conversation, and maybe frame the discussion in a different way.
