Grant Hill is a Sun...but why?
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by user Braab86
Apparently, Grant Hill has agreed to a 2-year deal with the Phoenix Suns, which is nice for him. He'll now have a legitimate chance to win his first title, playing alongisde Steve Nash, Shawn Marion, and Amare Stoudemire (and Kevin Garnett?). While Hill could be a nice story, how much will he really help the Suns?
First, there is the issue of his health. It's been well-publicized that Hill missed over 50 games in all but two seasons. Even in his two "healthy" seasons, he played in less than 70 games. Not particularly encouraging for a Suns team that was lacking in depth to begin with. Since the only player the Suns have lost so far in the off-season is James Jones, one can argue that all Hill has to do is play a little better than Jones and it will be a success, but when you look at the players' skill sets, even that is debatable.
The Suns thrive on three-point shooting set up by Nash's play-making and Stoudemire's low-post presence. While Jones only averaged 6.4 PPG last season, his three-point shooting percentage was a respectable 37.8%. Obviously other teams were not planning their games around defending Jones, but his shooting was good enough to keep the defenses honest. They could not leave him wide open to double-team Nash or Stoudemire, at least not without considerable risk.
Hill, on the other hand, has never been much of a three-point shooter. The best he has ever shot from downtown is 34.7%, and that was in 1999-00, which was his last year in Detroit and came before his ankle surgery. Since then he has hardly attempted any three-pointers, instead looking to his mid-range game. This is not a knock on Hill (the game could use more mid-range shooters) but if he is not a capable shooter from long range, how much can he really help the Suns? Opposing teams can leave him open on the perimeter and exert more effort on defending Nash, Stoudemire, and Marion.
What about Hill's other abilities? Well, he is not much of a play-maker. Since his surgery he has never had nearly the same quickness or athleticism that he used to torment defenders in the 90s. As a result, his assists have dropped off considerably. While he averaged at least 5 APG in every year he played with the Pistons, his assists have dropped off severely in the last few years. Last season he averaged only 2.1 APG, a career-low. One could argue that those numbers are due to the lack of talent in Orlando, but that doesn't explain his 2.2 turnovers per game, giving him the worst assist-to-turnover ratio of his career. His rebounding was also unimpressive. Hill averaged 3.6 RPG, and actually averaged fewer rebounds per 40 minutes than Jones.
Okay, so Hill is no longer a great scorer or play-maker. Everyone knew that already, and isn't defense supposed to be his calling card anyway? Well not so fast. According to 82games.com, the Magic were actually a slightly worse defensive team when Hill was on the floor. Even so, he'll be an upgrade over Jones in that department. But Jones is not the only player who Hill will be taking minutes from. His arrival figures to cut, if slightly, into the minutes of Marion, Raja Bell, Leandro Barbosa, and Boris Diaw. Marion and Bell are far better defenders than Hill and Barbosa's offense makes up for his poor defense. The main victim will likely be Diaw, who had an off-year after coming to training camp out of shape and really never returning to his 2005-06 form. Yet even in a down year, Diaw seems a better fit for the Suns, with his passing and rebounding, than Hill.
On one hand, the Suns acquired Hill for such a small cost that it is hard to see this really backfiring. The worst case scenario would be Hill getting injured again, in which case they are more or less back where they started. The most notable aspect of this signing is that, with another small forward in the mix, it could increase the Suns' aggressiveness in their pursuit of Garnett. This move makes Marion slightly more expendable, thus making a Garnett trade all the more likely. Not to mention the fact that the Suns could now include Diaw in a deal, which could help move things along.
If this signing helps the Suns land KG, than it's a very smart one for new GM Steve Kerr, but if not it does very little to help their title chances. Hill does not appear to be a particularly good fit in the Suns' offense, and his defense is not enough to make a big difference. In the end of the day, the odds are that Hill only plays in 25 games anyway. I really hope not though, because if I knew that would happen, this article could have simply read: DNP-ankle.
