Goodbye, Carlos; Thanks, Derrick
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by user Sigglecow
Is it unfair to blame Derrick Turnbow for the now-almost-certain impending trade of Carlos Lee? Probably. Does he deserve all the blame? Of course not. But he does deserve a whole lot of it.
While everyone within the Brewers organization has been awfully tight-lipped regarding a potential Lee trade (or any trade, for that matter), it's a good assumption that whether Carlos gets traded or not depends on what their postseason chances are on the morning of July 31. If it looks like they have a shot, I would expect them to sign Lee to an extension and possibly trade Jenkins to free up some cash. If they look down and out, then you can probably say goodbye to Lee (and possibly Jenkins as well).
Today's loss to the Giants was huge. It's bad enough that the Brewers led 6-1 going into the bottom of the third and lost 7-6, but it's worse because it happened in the bottom of the ninth. Yes, Davis left it 6-4. Yes, Bush gave up the solo HR to make it 6-5. But Turnbow threw it away. A single, a double, and a walkoff hit for Ray Durham. Of course you can yell at Davis and Bush for the runs they gave up, but that shouldn't matter to Turnbow. He's a closer. The man who specializes in preserving one-run leads for one half of an inning.
Now, not all of the Brewers' late-game losses have been Turnbow's fault. He's blown 8 save opportunities (today's makes four in a row), but Kolb and Wise have given away their share of games in the seventh and eighth innings as well. But Turnbow's supposed to be better than that (he gets paid better, anyway). He's supposed to be impervious to the pressure of the ninth inning. He's NOT supposed to throw away four games in a row. He's not supposed to be 4-6. He shouldn't have any record! Aghhh!
I'm not saying Turnbow should be traded or cut or sent down or anything like that. But he does present a huge problem. Because with Tomo Ohka back and Ben Sheets on the way, the starting pitching is looking more than a little bit better. The last thing we need is to start worrying about our closing. But if this is going to be a problem, then you can say goodbye to Carlos Lee right now.
I know it's not fair to blame Derrick Turnbow entirely, but it is mostly on him. No one's perfect. No one expects Turnbow to be 0-0 with 31 saves in 31 opportunities and a 0.00 ERA, but we do (rightfully) expect better than what we're getting. And this isn't the end of it. If Turnbow's off his game, and the rest of that bullpen (with the possible exceptions of Shouse and, to a lesser extent, Capellan) remains faulty, then we're in trouble. This weekend series visiting the Reds is possibly the most important series so far this year, and in 13 games this season, this is how it breaks down:
The Reds lead 71-65 in runs, but the Brewers lead 7-6 in games (3-3 on the road).
7 of the 13 games have been decided by three runs or less, 2 of them in extra innings.
Of those 7 close games, the Brewers' record is 5-2.
So, unless Ned Yost plans on having Chris Capuano throw three complete games this weekend, that bullpen will be busy and important. Turnbow needs to get his stuff together if he wants the Brewers to have any chance. Because while 8 games may not be the end of the world, they are huge. Especially with the last four being consecutive.
In summary, if Turnbow keeps this up over the weekend, then you may want to get in line to start saying goodbye to Carlos Lee. And while everyone will be at least partly to blame, one person you'll be able to give a HUGE thank you to for sure will be Derrick Turnbow.
Date
Wed 07/19/06, 3:42 pm EST
