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Good Progress In Boston

11
Vote

by user Xinoph

Will J.D. Drew stay healthy?
Will J.D. Drew stay healthy?

After a pathetic season that saw the team start strong, but finish behind their northern neighbors once Murphy's Law caught up with them, the Boston Red Sox have laid a good foundation for next season. While some of the signings are questionable ($70 million for J.D. Drew?), the flurry of spending the Sox engaged in erased any doubt about the management's dedication to winning a division title in 2007.

It certainly has been a strange offseason thus far for the division. Often, every other team in the East is struggling to catch up to the Yankees in terms of both dollars and big-name players signed. This time, the Yankees and the Toronto Blue Jays have had similar offseasons - adding a few new big names while engaging in a flurry of re-signings and trades for prospects.

Boston's signings have been the headline-grabbers this year. The addition of Devil Rays shortstop Julio Lugo would ordinarily attract more attention and might even be Boston's big move of the offseason. Instead, the Sox continued their on-again, off-again relationship with Scott Boras by paying big bucks for two Boras clients - outfielder J.D. Drew and Japanese pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka.

This isn't to downplay the moves made by their division rivals, but Boston has been the center of attention in the A.L. East this offseason. While the Sheffield trade was unexpected (in that it was the reverse of the usual Yankee philosophy, trading a talented veteran for prospects), the immediate results were hardly earth-shattering. The return of Andy Pettitte was a great move as well, especially since he brings the potential of Roger Clemens returning, but it will be interesting to see whether he still is the Pettitte Yankee fans are familiar with from several years ago.

For Toronto, the addition of Frank Thomas will strengthen an already-formidable lineup, assuming the 38-year-old stays healthy all season, and Matt Stairs may well be a very useful addition as well. Toronto will certainly be in the mix right at the top of the division again in 2007, but they can't count on the Red Sox and Yankees being plagued by injuries to catapult them into first place. The re-signing of Vernon Wells, if it goes through, will be a big boost to the team - but not an upgrade, and the loss of Ted Lilly is a blow.

So, it's been an interesting offseason for the A.L. East thus far, and there is reason for New England to be optimistic about their Red Sox - with several notes of caution. The team still needs to fill the hole in the closer position as Jonathan Papelbon departs for the starting rotation. Moreover, there's the potential for any or all of the new signees - Daisuke Matsuzaka, J.D. Drew, and Julio Lugo - to perform well below expectations. After all, one of them hasn't played in the major leagues yet, another has been plagued by injuries throughout his career, and the last is a clear downgrade in the area that was the team's saving grace last season.

So we'll see how things work out as the unpredictability of another MLB season unfolds, but on paper there's reason for Red Sox Nation to be cautiously optimistic.

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The sharkDraft Pick
1082 days ago
Score 6+-
Great article, X. The AL East is going to be a very interesting race this year. Needless to say, the Sox have definitley improved their fortunes from last year's injury-riddled debacle. But the Matsuzaka signing was huge! I wish Spring Training started tomorrow!
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Bball3345Draft Pick
1081 days ago
Score 3+-
AMEN to Spring Training starting tomorrow.
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EnyboDiv-I Stud
1082 days ago
Score 0+-
Any truth to the rumors that the Red Sox made an offer to Clemens?
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The sharkDraft Pick
1082 days ago
Score 2+-
The only thing that I can confirm is that Sox brass has had ongoing discussions with Rocket's agent. Don't know about an actual offer...
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XinophDraft Pick
1082 days ago
Score 2+-
That particular rumor was floating around from spring training through the trade deadline last year, so until he puts on the uni I wouldn't put much stock in it..... :-)
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The sharkDraft Pick
1082 days ago
Score 2+-
I agree. Honestly, as long as he doesn't end up in NY I hope he doesn't end up in Boston. But obviously Boston would be preferable if NY is the only other option.
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Bball3345Draft Pick
1081 days ago
Score 0+-
Clemens already had his goodbye in New York. Let him walk away with the Red Sox.
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J CunninghamVarsity Captain
1081 days ago
Score 2+-
The only way I saw Clemens giving the Red Sox a serious thought was if Matsuzaka didn't sign. Since he did, I don't see the Rocket going back to Beantown. If anything, New York'll go after him harder, trying to make a splash to answer the one Boston made by signing Dice-K.
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The BeastAAA-er
1081 days ago
Score -1+-
Being impartial of course. I have watched and followed the Dodgers often since I live in Los Angeles. J.D. Drew is a pretty darn good player if he is healthy. Of course if I was seven feet and black I'd be in the pros.
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Terry FooteSoccer Kid
1081 days ago
Score 0+-
The fans at Fenway who sit in the first base box seats had all better bring their gloves, because with Lugo at short, they're going to get plenty of chances to get a baseball. Lugo was dead last in fielding for shortstops in the Majors. It looks to me like Epstein is throwing money away to quell the rumblings about a 3rd place finish. And 70 million for a guy who hasn't batted .300 since 2004? I think JD Drew will be the Red Sox's Adrian Beltre. This is a well written article, but I'm obviously not so rosey about the Sox's off season moves.
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Bball3345Draft Pick
1081 days ago
Score 1+-
His Range Factor was in the top half of the league, and his Zone Rating was around average last year. Lugo's defense is not tremendous, but it is closer to average than "dead last."
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Davis21wylieMVP
1081 days ago
Score 0+-
Lugo's career Fielding Runs Above Average:
AGE YEAR TEAM   FRAA
24 2000 HOU-N   -6
25 2001 HOU-N    0
26 2002 HOU-N  -12
27 2003 HOU-N   -1
27 2003 TB_-A    9
28 2004 TB_-A    3
29 2005 TB_-A   18
30 2006 TB_-A   -1
30 2006 LA_-N    1
Career          12
You could do worse. In fact, Derek Jeter's done a hell of a lot worse over his career (he's -118 FRAA lifetime).
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Terry FooteSoccer Kid
1081 days ago
Score 0+-
Lugo played (I think) 81 games with a FPCT of .953. According to this list, he'd be dead last. Admitedly this is a list of players with more play time, but then again, they had more opportunity to make erros. I'll give you this much, Lugo's been a very good hitter in the past. He can at times make spectacular plays at short. However as we all know baseball is ultimately a game ruled by day in day out consistency, and Lugo doesn't have it at short. http://sport...=fieldingPct
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Bball3345Draft Pick
1081 days ago
Score 1+-
I realize he came in last in fielding percentage, which isn't a good thing; however, I rely on other stats much more than FPCT. As I mentioned, his Range Factor and Zone Rating at short were average, at worst. As Davis21Wylie mentioned, his FRAA have been above average as well. Those take into account all the positions he has played. I don't think Lugo deserves a Gold Glove anytime soon, but he is not a terrible fielder by any means. Outside of his slump after being traded last season, Lugo has been a very good hitter for the past few years. His hitting makes up for any of his shortcomings in the field, which there aren't too many to make up for.
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Anonymous Fanatic #1
1081 days ago
Score -1+-
Funny how fast the Sox identity has changed. Last yr all we head was how awesome the D was supposed to be with Alex Gonzalez. Now they bring in Lugo, who most clubs wouldn't take a risk on to be their SS (how many teams were comtemplating moving him to 2nd).
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Davis21wylieMVP
1081 days ago
Score -1+-
The D wasn't really that great last year. By Defensive Efficiency (which is a much better metric than FPct because it takes into account range), they were one of the worst fielding teams in baseball, and Gonzalez was no great shakes, either (he was -5 FRAA). Contrary to conventional wisdom, Lugo may actually end up helping this defense...
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Terry FooteSoccer Kid
1081 days ago
Score 0+-
I have to say, as a Tampa Bay resident and supporter of the Rays, I was sorry to see Lugo go to the Dodgers. His trouble with the adjustment to National League pitching can be forgiven. My issue is that he's getting $9 million from the Sox, which is a two fold increase in his salary. I just don't see how he warrants that salary considering that David Eckstein gets about 1/3 of that. That leads me to believe that Theo has high hopes for what Lugo can do, and his fielding is enough of a liability to be a cause for concern. On that point of course we can agree to disagree. What things are taken into accound for the Range Factor and Zone Rating?
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Davis21wylieMVP
1081 days ago
Score 0+-
I'm actually really glad you asked. Range factor is simply plays made per 9 innings; it equals 9 * (A + PO)/ Inn. It's better than FPct because it accounts for opportunity -- a guy with no range could post a gaudy FPct simply by never missing a play that was hit right at him, but he could be costing the team runs with his fielding, because he's not even getting close to balls that other players would make plays on. Zone rating is even cooler (but harder to calculate); it divides the field into "zones" that are under the responsibility of each position. The zone rating, then, is simply the number of successful plays made by a player within his zone divided by the total number of fieldable balls hit to his zone.
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Terry FooteSoccer Kid
1081 days ago
Score 1+-
Interesting stats Davis21wylie, thank you! How does A Rod rank in Range factor? I have often thought to myself that I don't often see A Rod dive for hard to reach hits. I've speculated that perhaps he's afraid of making errors and averse to risks. Now this may be my opinion, but I think most anyone would believe he's no Scott Rolen or Brooks Robinson. So my question is would Range Factor measure this theory I have about A Rod, and do the numbers support it. Thanks!
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Bball3345Draft Pick
1081 days ago
Score 1+-
Last season, ARod was terrible in FPCT and Range Factor. Ranking in the bottom three for both. In 2005, his FPCT was very high, but his Range Factor was still near the bottom. More or less the same for 2004.
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Bball3345Draft Pick
1081 days ago
Score 0+-
ARod's defense has really declined since moving to New York.
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Davis21wylieMVP
1081 days ago
Score 0+-
And Jeter's has looked better (at least statistically). Coincidence? Could A-Rod consciously be deferring to Jeter, which would lower his range while inflating Jeter's? I have no idea.
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Bball3345Draft Pick
1081 days ago
Score 1+-
I kind of thought something along those lines too. Maybe the Yankees' strategy is to let the SS field balls hit between short and third. They discussed the flip-flop in their fielding numbers in Baseball Between the Numbers, right? I can't exactly remember what the conclusion was and I don't have the book with me to check.
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Davis21wylieMVP
1081 days ago
Score 1+-
Luckily, I always keep this book at arm's length! They say that Jeter's jump from horribleness to average in 2004 was pretty unprecedented -- only 11 shortstops with at least 8 years of experience had ever made a >10 jump in FRAA, and all of the other 10 started out at average, while Jeter started at -23. Davenport couldn't explain it, because all of his numbers went up across the board that year. Their best explanation was that A-Rod chose to let Jeter handle the balls that either could have fielded, which would artificially decrease Rodriguez's range factor and FRAA. Zone rating might filter out this overlap a bit, since it's not strictly based on range factor with GB-FG and lefty-righty adjustments, but rather it only holds players accountable for their own zones. Here are their numbers, side-by-side:
Season          A-Rod               Jeter
2002       .919 (1st of 12)   .803 (12th of 12)
2003       .859 (6th of 10)   .791 (10th of 10)
2004       .786 (3rd of 9)*   .847 (6th of 11)
2005       .735 (9th of 10)*  .830 (5th of 10)
2006       .741 (8th of 9)*   .810 (7th of 9)
Same story. Now, it could be that A-Rod is just a better SS than a 3B. Or he could have gotten really old, really fast, in terms of range. But I think deferring to Jeter is as good an answer as any.
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Davis21wylieMVP
1081 days ago
Score 0+-
Oh, * = Third base
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Bball3345Draft Pick
1081 days ago
Score 1+-
i usually have that book nearby, but I forgot to bring it to school with me. I'll have to remember to bring it along after Christmas Break. I can't wait for BP's next book.
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Bball3345Draft Pick
1081 days ago
Score 2+-
As for comparing him to Brooks Robinson and Scott Rolen, Robinson has a career FRAA(Fielding Runs Above Average) of 216, Rolen is at 151, and ARod is at 44.
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Terry FooteSoccer Kid
1081 days ago
Score 1+-
Wow - to quote "This is Spinal Tap" , "that's a little too much f*&^ing perspective"!
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