Goals Created
Goals Created (GC) is an NHL stat, created by Daryl Shilling of The Hockey Project, that is designed to estimate the number of goals that a hockey player contributes to his team. It is a takeoff on Bill James' Runs Created baseball statistic.
The basic principle of GC is that the current Points system that the NHL uses to rank scorers is flawed. Under Points, assists and goals are weighted equally, despite the fact that assists are unquestionably easier to tally (up to two assists can be recorded for each goal, and two assists do indeed occur approximately ¾ of the time). In order to accurately assess a player's offensive contribution, this must be accounted for. The orginal Shilling formula for Goals Created was:
- Goals Created (GC) = (G * 0.5) + (A * (2 – (LgA/LgG)))
Where
- LgA = League-Wide Assists
- LgG = League-Wide Goals
ArmchairGM user Davis21wylie has since updated Shilling's formula because of a flaw that caused goals not to be conserved across the league. Under his metric, the value of a goal scored changes based on the league percentage of unassisted goals, and assist credit is then parceled out to conserve total goals. The new, improved formula for Goals Created is:
- Goal Scored Value (GSV) = ((0.5*(LgG-LgUnG))+LgUnG)/LgG
- Assist Value (ASV) = (LgG-(GSV*LgG))/LgA
- Goals Created (GC) = (G * GSV) + (A * ASV)
Where
- LgA = League-Wide Assists
- LgG = League-Wide Goals
- LgUnG = League-Wide Unassisted Goals
(In 2006-07, GSV = .525 and ASV = .271.)
The idea is for each team's GC total to match their Goals Scored total, with league goals being conserved. In practice, the old formula is very accurate, predicting team Goals Scored totals by within 1% on average, and the new formula is even more accurate.
Leaderboards
(Note: Historical Goals and Assists are normalized before being entered into the formula)
Rank Player Year GC 1 Lemieux, Mario 1988-89 64.9 2 Morenz, Howie 1927-28 64.6 3 Gretzky, Wayne 1983-84 64.1 4 Gretzky, Wayne 1984-85 62.6 5 Gretzky, Wayne 1981-82 60.7
Career Leaders
Rank Player GC 1 Gretzky, Wayne 887 2 Howe, Gordie 850 3 Messier, Mark 631 4 Esposito, Phil 599 5 Yzerman, Steve 596
2006-07 Leaders
(Davis21wylie formula)
Player Pos Team GP GC GC/G V. Lecavalier F TAM 82 42.5 0.518 Sidney Crosby F PIT 79 41.7 0.528 Dany Heatley F OTT 82 41.2 0.502 M. St. Louis F TAM 82 38.6 0.471 Marian Hossa F ATL 82 38.1 0.464 Teemu Selanne F ANA 82 37.7 0.460 A. Ovechkin F WAS 82 36.6 0.447 Joe Thornton F SAN 82 36.5 0.445 Joe Sakic F COL 82 36.3 0.442 Jarome Iginla F CGY 70 35.4 0.506
External links
