Giving The Odds On The NCAA Tournament (Round 2 Edition)
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by user Davis21wylie
Well, that was some interesting Thursday-Friday NCAA action, wasn't it? Interesting, as in, there really weren't as many upsets as we've become accustomed to seeing -- we were surprised by the lack of surprises! As Round 2 begins this afternoon, though, I'm sure we'll see more than our share of those wacky, unpredictable college hoops skirmishes we love so dear. It's time to put the madness back in March!
Ken Pomeroy, on the other hand, is trying to predict the unpredictable, using the groudbreaking statistical techniques found at his website. And, as promised, I'm bringing you the fruits of his labors, updated to include Thursday/Friday's results. While there are no guarantees in College Basketball, Ken's work gets you as close as you can to predicting future results...
Locks: There aren't any true locks (pW>90%), but if I were a betting man I'd take Pitt over VCU (despite their early foibles against Wright St.), Memphis over Nevada, and Georgetown over BC. For 4-vs.-5 matchups, Texas over USC and Maryland over Butler look like surprisingly solid bets. But I'm not a betting man. And neither should you be. It's evil.
Upset Specials: Vanderbilt could easily topple Washington State in the East, and Tennessee & Va. Tech are actually better teams than UVa & Sou. Illinois, respectively, under Pomeroy's scheme. Facing Kentucky, Kansas is the No. 1 seed with the best chance of being eliminated this weekend. North Carolina also drew a tough matchup against a Michigan State team that dominated Marquette in a game that was "supposed" to be close. Ohio State has the easiest R2 matchup, as Xavier barely squeaked past BYU and is clearly an inferior team to the Fighting Odens.
As usual, tune in before Round 3 for the latest odds on the NCAA Tournament, and visit Ken's blog for his predictions and analysis. Peace out!
