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Fudging with Numbers III (July 19, 2007)

22
Vote

by Manny Stiles

Stats stats stats;

In true "Fudgie" fashion, I present Fudging With Numbers III - another installment in one of the endlessly running series of running series' by Manny Stiles.

A "Fudgie" is a term 'endearingly' reserved by locals for vacationers to Northern Michigan, specifically to Mackinac Island (sounds like 'mack-in-awe'). "If it's "tourist season", why can't we shoot them?" Visitors flock from around the globe to taste the famous fudge and visit Old Fort Mackinac on the motorless horse and bicycle-only island.

Murdick's claims the "Original Fudge" Makers on Mackinac Island, but no one knows the answer to the question - 'Why Fudge'? (photo by M. Erik Kombol)
Murdick's claims the "Original Fudge" Makers on Mackinac Island, but no one knows the answer to the question - 'Why Fudge'? (photo by M. Erik Kombol)

After asking anyone why it was fudge that became famous on the island and not some other treat/confection (which originally was more famous for Indian candies and jewelry) the closest answer I got was - "I don't know". So of course, this keeps me up at night...

And while motorized vehicles aren't allowed on the island, you can still find Harley-Davidson shirts that infer they are... where were the T-Shirts that say "I got Fudged Up on Mackinac Island"? - I would have bought one of those! Is there no creativity left in the world??

So while it remains an utter mystery how "Fudgies" came into being, no one can doubt my passion for Fudging with Numbers!

(see:Fudging with Numbers 1) (see:Fudging with Numbers 2)

Fudging With Numbers

The Tampa Bay Rays (despite Manny Stiles as 'Good Luck Charm') currently have the worst record in baseball and are playing under .400 ball (overall) on the season... BUT -

In games with less than 10,000 paid attendance, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays are playing .643 baseball (9-5 record) - this includes a 3-0 record in Orlando 'home' games...

In games with more than 37,100 in attendance, they are playing .800 ball (4-1 record)

So clearly, the key to their success is very small and very large crowds - or just play ALL of their games in Orlando! - they are 24-51 (.320 Winning PCT) with crowds between 10,001 and 37,099 paid attendance!


Maybe if they jack up the prices and lose the cheap beer and free parking, they'd win ALL of their games at home!

Little Fudging here, just Pondering some things

Baseball

  • Managers
    • Jim Leyland was the last full-season manager (Jack McKeon was interim in 2003) to win a World Series (1997) and never have a MLB playing career since Earl Weaver in 1969.
    • Two seasons ago, EVERY MLB manager had compiled an official MLB career before managing. The number of managers coming into this season (4) without MLB playing careers have increased by 50% during this season (there's now 6!) - at this pace ZERO managers will have had MLB playing careers by 2011!
  • Barry Bonds
    • Where was the outcry/Bud Selig when he became the All-Time Natonal League HR leader (#734?) - or All-Time Lefty HRs with #715?
    • Take away his Home Runs (coming into today) and Bonds' SLG% is a mere .376! (Ruth's SLG - HRs is .418! Hank Aaron's SLG-Hrs is .371)
    • Barry Bonds has around 400 more career SBs than Babe Ruth, but almost 60 fewer career triples!
    • Barry only needs to play a little over 6 more seasons of an average of 565 plate appearances to tie Pete Rose for All-Time leader in plate appearances...
  • Alex Rodriguez
    • A-Rod is the only player in MLB to debut at age 18 since 1979. Every other player was at least 19.
    • If A-Rod continues at his current pace and only plays until his 40th birthday, he will finish with 815 Home Runs. If he plays until his 44th birthday at the same pace, he would have 955 Home Runs...
    • If A-Rod continues at his current pace and plays until his 44th birthday, he would finish with exactly 4,192 hits!
    • Also, at his current pace he will finish his career with ZERO World Series titles.
  • Roger Clemens
    • He is the only living MLB pitcher to have more shutouts (46) than years on the planet (44) - but not for long =)
    • Clemens is only 64 shutouts away from tying Walter Johnson for most all-time.
    • If Clemens doubled his career Complete Games mark (118 to 236) he would qualify for 95th place on the all-time Complete Games list.
    • If Clemens multiplied his career Complete Games number times four (to 472), he would be 10th on the All-time Complete Games list... (and still 277 behind Cy Young)

Basketball

  • Are Yi Lost?
    • Coincidence? The guy who founded the Fort at Mackinac Island was also the first Non-North American guy to cross Lake Michigan - Jacques Marquette landed just north of Milwaukee and thought he found China...
    • Maybe Yi should play baseball like Bo Jackson did and then he won't get vilified for not wanting to play with the team that drafted him.
    • Fran Vasquez could give Yi some pointers...
  • No one complains about this... but A-Rod.
    • Shaquille O'Neal has amassed over $231 million in SALARY in his career (not including endorsements or film grossings - snicker, snicker)
  • Stats like 'Player Losses' mean little until you see the names on the list...
    • Antoine Walker is the Greatest at something - and Isiah Thomas is the only HoF'er in the top 15!
  • Omen for Oden?
  • In NBA-ABA history, there have been 29 players/coaches with "Greg" in their name and 29 players/coaches with "Kevin" in their name. Oden and Durant will raise those tallies to 30.
    • There has never been a player named Greg named as an All-Star, there are no Gregs in the HoF (until Gregg Popovich squeaks in) and Greg Kite is the only player named 'Greg' (any spelling, first or last name) to win an NBA championship...
    • There have been 5 Kevin All-Stars, A Kevin MVP and even a Kevin in the HoF (Guess who?) Kevins have amassed too many rings for me to bother counting...

NFL

  • What If???
    • Jim Brown - He played his 9 years when NFL seasons were just 12 and 14 games long. If we prorate his shortened career over today's standard 16 game seasons, he would have had 2,713 more yards and 23 more touchdowns!
    • If Jim Brown had as many rushing attempts as Emmitt Smith (at his career pace), he would have amassed 34,308 yards (or almost 16,000 yards more than #22)
    • Coming into this season, the Arizona Cardinals are the only NFL team that is undefeated outside of the United States borders in the regular season.
    • If Johnny Unitas had as many pass attempts as Brett Favre he would have thrown for 63,804 yards (3.5 more miles than Favre) and 460 TDs (44 more than Favre) but with... get this - 125 more Int's!!! Johnny U was a GunSLINGER!

HDBs

  • The Record Curve
    • In the past 10 years, the record for HDBs eaten at Nathan's annual 4th of July Hot Dog Gluttonyfest has increased 270% - at that rate, the record in 2017 should be around 178 HDBs!

Just recklessly chucking numbers out there and seeing what sticks!

Until next time, peace and good tidings to each of you!

Enable Comment Auto-Refresher
KelsdadAll-Star
881 days ago
Score 3+-
If you took all the syringes used by Barry Bonds and laid them end to end, the line would be longer than the two bombs he hit today. And fudge wasn't invented in Michigan.
Permalink | Reply
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
881 days ago
Score 2+-
I know fudge wasn't invented there, (it wasn't even popular there until after 1900) but that's what Mackinac Island is primarily known for (14 fudge shacks on an island with almost ZERO year-round population...) - Again... WHY?
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
881 days ago
Score 3+-
I also found that if you take Barry's Hat size and multiply it by his ego, it would equal the circumfrence of the three nearest stars (including our beloved "Sun") COMBINED!!!
Permalink
Tyrone BriggsHall of Famer
880 days ago
Score 1+-
I can testify to the fact that Macinac Island is the WHITEST community in the USA.
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
880 days ago
Score 0+-
Honestly, I really have seen MUCH whiter communities - for whatever reason, there were a BUNCH of Jamaican people on Mackinac - workers AND visitors! Obviously, you've never been to Arizona... I would be the blackest person in many of those towns!
Permalink
Tyrone BriggsHall of Famer
880 days ago
Score 1+-
Huh, maybe it changed over time. Its been a long while.
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
880 days ago
Score 0+-
Don't get me wrong... It's not exactly a beacon of diversity up there... You aren't going to find soul food ANYWHERE in Northern Michigan.

There are towns that are so white trash where even I felt a tad unsafe for wearing clean clothes, ennuciating my words and driving an intact vehicle...

Believe me, no one likes to hear those eight dreaded words "You ain't from around here, are you boy?"
Permalink
KelsdadAll-Star
881 days ago
Score 3+-
Oh, duh, sorry. I thought that was the "why" part. Hmmmm. 14 stores on a small island? sounds like an investment opportunity, where is this place?
Permalink | Reply
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
881 days ago
Score 2+-
between the Upper and Lower peninsulas of Michigan a.k.a. "The Straits of Mackinac"

I saw MANY business opportunities there (Diet Fudge anyone? NO ONE makes it!) but the weather (8 months of Curling!) doesn't favor us thin-blooded Arizona types...

The World's Longest Porch is also on the island at the Grand Hotel...
Permalink
CoreyisarealboyMajor Leaguer
881 days ago
Score 2+-
Mackinac Island is a fantastic island for about two months out of the year, then it's winter.
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
881 days ago
Score 2+-
The 4 seasons of Northern Michigan - It's Early Winter, Winter, Late Winter and Construction!
Permalink
ChristofMVP
881 days ago
Score 3+-
This is a excellent article.
Permalink | Reply
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
881 days ago
Score 1+-
Thanks! ...you aren't missing much if you never see it. Unless you're into old military forts and horsecrap all over the place. There is a summer house for Michigan's Governor there that hasn't been visited by the last three governors... what's THAT tell you? I didn't even try any fudge.
Permalink
Kwitt11Varsity Captain
881 days ago
Score 2+-
I've been there once. I don't remember much, but the fudge was good...
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
881 days ago
Score 2+-
It's the Nantucket of the Midwest! Why do you think I went in July?
Permalink
KelsdadAll-Star
881 days ago
Score 2+-
Who said I would live there? As long as there is a post office so they can mail me my residual checks, I stay right here in sunny AZ!
Permalink | Reply
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
881 days ago
Score 3+-
My wife and I have friends that run a family restaurant in Mackinaw City (the port on the mainland to the island) and they make a $$killing$$ in the summer months so they can live in Arizona from September to April and do nothing!
Permalink
KelsdadAll-Star
881 days ago
Score 2+-
That's what I'm talking about!!!
Permalink | Reply
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
881 days ago
Score 0+-
My entrepeneurial brother-in-law liked my T-shirt ideas (including some I didn't divulge here) and might be printing them up for next season!
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
881 days ago
Score 0+-
I also thought of getting some fudge blessed by a religeous figure (other than my reverend self) and calling it "Holy Fudge!" - even if it tastes like crap, it will sell!
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
881 days ago
Score 1+-
Who wouldn't want a "Mackinac Island Fudgepackers Union" T-shirt? Eh? Eh?
Permalink
KelsdadAll-Star
881 days ago
Score 1+-
Like you did with your salsa?
Permalink | Reply
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
881 days ago
Score 1+-
Naaah, I give my salsa recipe away freely as so ALL can ENJOY the wonders of fire-roasted, beer-drenched goodness! ...And to undermine the evilness of "Big Salsa". Some things are more important than money - Getting people to recognize the difference between 'really good salsa' and what amounts to 'crappy ketchup' is one of those things!
Permalink
KelsdadAll-Star
881 days ago
Score 1+-
Jamel could be your Chicago sales rep.
Permalink | Reply
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
881 days ago
Score 0+-
We'll get the Hershey's people and the highway department to sponsor him!
Permalink
CoreyisarealboyMajor Leaguer
881 days ago
Score 1+-
There are a hundred economists waiting to crucify you for your Devil Ray attendance analysis.
Permalink | Reply
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
881 days ago
Score 0+-
yeah.... (sighs with a beaming smile)
Permalink
DwalbertVarsity Captain
881 days ago
Score 1+-
Fantastic article (I especially love the Antwaan Walker numbers) and I am beyond a shadow of a doubt going to be making this salsa before the week is over.
Permalink | Reply
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
881 days ago
Score 0+-
I made some tonight (it's ok right away, but so much better in a couple days!)
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
881 days ago
Score 0+-
and you better have LOTS of chips!
Permalink
Anonymous Fanatic #1
881 days ago
Score 1+-
Manny,

Believe it or not, I wrote a book about the Mackinac Island Fudge story entitled "Fudge: Mackinac's Sweet Souvenir" (Mackinac Island State Park Commission, 2001). The Murdick family opened the first candy shop on Mackinac Island c. 1889. They made a wide variety of canides and sweets but it was the process of making fudge (large liquid batches of molton candy poured on marble slabs and slowly and dramatically worked into the final fudge loaf) that attracted people into the store who stayed and watched the process. Of course, they then wanted to buy the stuff that they just watched being made. Over time the fudge making process became more and more of a show (moving the marble slabbed tables to the front windows and blowing the sweet smell onto the streets) and, in the hands of some very able candy promoters, the fudge thing just exploded. Now Mackinac are inextricably linked.

By the way, every Michigan governor (including the last three) have spent considerable time in the governor's summer residence on Mackinac Island - a testimony to what a nice place this is!

Phil Porter, Director

Mackinac State Historic Parks
Permalink | Reply
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
880 days ago
Score 0+-
You better starighten out the Shepler's people - they were my source on the Governors comment... I was very distraught looking for answers

As for Murdick (who was originally from Kansas?), the research I did hinted that another fudge maker from Detroit came to capitalize on the Indian candy business around 1905 (I forget his name) had a bit of showmanship and drew crowds with a carnival-like atmosphere and Murdick's and the others repsonding in kind (the window shows you refer to) which turned into an all-out fudge off...

It's just funny that the island is just there - pristine and natural - and it's famous for Fudge?!?!? It's just very weird (Coming from a guy that spent a good deal of his childhood at Hersheypark!)

Thanks for reading! Tell all the Fudgies I said "Go Home, Fudgie!" =)
Permalink
Niteowl049AAA-er
880 days ago
Score 2+-
One of the most interesting articles I have read at this site. Very interesting about Bonds being so far behind Babe Ruth in triples and Clemens being so far behind Walter Johnson in shutouts. Guess if A-Rod is only 18 year old to play since 1979 it means we will never see another Joe Nuxhall pitching at 15 years old. Nuxhall in his one game in 1944 pitched 2/3 of an inning giving up 2 hits and walking 5 and finished his only game that year with a 67.50 and didn't surface again with Reds till 1952 when he had a 3.22 ERA. He pitched all but two years with Reds and twice came back to Reds after playing for Kansas City Athletics and Los Angeles Angels and finished his career with Reds in 1966. Last I knew he was broadcasting Reds games so he has had a connection with Reds for most of the last 63 years.
Permalink | Reply
Willf123JV Squad
880 days ago
Score 2+-
He was brought up at a time when rosters were barren due to World War 2. He may not have been brought up otherwise. He didnt pitch again till he was 23 and wasnt effective till he was 25.
Permalink
Anonymous Fanatic #2
880 days ago
Score 0+-
Ballparks were different (larger) in the Babe's day, hence the triple disparity http://www.n.../000783.html
Permalink
Willf123JV Squad
880 days ago
Score 2+-
Age is a huge factor in assessing a player's chances for the hall of fame. For example Mel Ott was 17 when he debuted and Robin Yount was 18 when he debuted. I think it may have something to do with compiling a lot of numbers before that 30th birthday so you have some leeway if you have some subpar years or get injured in your 30's. Anyways the 30's seems to be when a lot of stuff creeps up on us.
Permalink | Reply
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
880 days ago
Score 1+-
Mel Ott was the only player in history to be the youngest player in his league for three consecutive years!
Permalink
Niteowl049AAA-er
880 days ago
Score 1+-
Roberto Alomar was 20 when he debuted in majors and looked like he was on his way to 3000 hits till he was traded from Indians to Mets in an eight player trade in 2001 and six years later all eight players are not in majors. He never was the player he was when with the Indians and fell 276 hits short of 3000 hits at the age of 36. Ruben Sierra was another player that started off well then fizzled out. Both of them looked headed to the Hall of Fame but end of their career came way too soon even if Sierra was in majors till recently.
Permalink | Reply
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
880 days ago
Score 1+-
Doc Gooden! Obviously you have to be prett good to play big league ball at age 18, 19, 20 or even 21 [http://www.b...eagues.shtml There's some pretty decent players on the list)
Permalink
Anonymous Fanatic #2
880 days ago
Score 1+-
Shutouts are a stat of the past, If you are winning 5-0 why keep your starter in. I remember one game in the 1980s when Doc Gooden and Fernando Valenzuela pitched into the 11th(!) inning. Nuts! Not surprisingly they had arm troubles later in their careers...
Permalink | Reply
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
880 days ago
Score 1+-
I think that the Fastball is the cause of arm troubles, not pitch counts. Guys try to throw as hard as they possibly can EVERY time... Cy Young didn't try to blow everyone away, he just kept them off balance, made them put the ball in play and the fielders did their job. You don't need to throw 99 MPH to throw a strike. A strikeout is an inefficient out for a pitcher to try to get every time... Give me a three pitch inning over a 6 pitch strikeout any day.
Permalink
Niteowl049AAA-er
880 days ago
Score 1+-
When Harvey Haddix pitched 12 innings of perfect baseball he and his opponent Lew Burdette were the only pitchers in the 13 inning game.
Permalink | Reply
RomiezzoLegend
880 days ago
Score 1+-
Pretty interesting stats you got there. Nicely done...
Permalink | Reply
Anonymous Fanatic #1
879 days ago
Score 1+-
Manny,

Your story on a Detroit fudge maker is partially correct (but its 1960 and his name was Harry Ryba). If you will share your address I will be happy to send a copy of my fudge book if you would like the "rest of the story."

Phil
Permalink | Reply
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
876 days ago
Score 0+-
mannystiles@aol.com
Permalink
Anonymous Fanatic #3
877 days ago
Score 0+-
If they raised beer prices and charged for parking, it would be the same as last year.
Permalink | Reply
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
876 days ago
Score 0+-
touche... but not with their stellar 2007 record with minute crowds!
Permalink
Anonymous Fanatic #4
771 days ago
Score 1+-
Please read "Fudge: Mackinac's Sweet Souvenir." It has the answers.
Permalink | Reply
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
771 days ago
Score 1+-
Yeah, it really DOES have all the answers! After I read it, I threw my shelves of religious books away. Now I worship Fudge!
Permalink
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