Fudging With Numbers (Nov 6, 2006)
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by user Manny Stiles
Here it is, yet another exciting Uncle Manny post that strives to mess with your head. I'll try to make this a semi-regular (every so often) column.
After all,
| π | This user is a Math fan. |
I used to have an Algebra Professor that would say "Math is a piece of cake" all the time until one day I spouted out that "Math is a piece of Pi"... Mmmmm... Pi
Essentially what I'm doing here is throwing stats at you and letting you compare them, letting you choose which of the two "players" fits better into the answer of the predetermined question. It's simple!!! You just pick one or the other!!!
But in order to take the full advantage of A) messing with you and B) making the data impossible to translate and C) rendering the names unable to decipher until I feel like telling you, there will be NO predetermined outcome! You have to analyze the data without preconceptions!!! Wow!
Huh?
To dumb it down: I take 2 players and present a question (like "Who would you vote for MVP?"), skew their stats in similar ratios so you have NO idea who they are and YOU tell me the outcome based on skewed data interpretation. Then we'll (meaning I will) analyze what the hell happened.
Trust me; it's math so it's geeky, but it's sports so it's cool. OK, it's not really 'cool'; it won't make you more money, get you laid or make you more friends, but you read this far so you're already sucked in. Tell your old non-geeky friends goodbye and welcome to:
Fudging with Numbers!!!
let's start out easy....
Pick the MVP
Today we present to you two "fictional" MVP candidates from the same league, same year and each of the player's statistics are skewed equally, but each particular statistic may be skewed at different ratios from other statistics.
Since I changed all of the data, it will be impossible to tell who the players are so don't bother guessing (I might tell you later). Just tell me who you'd rather vote for as MVP (assume these two guys are the top two candidates) - we'll call them Paul and Sam for the hell of it.
| category | "Paul" | "Sam" |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 149 | 153 |
| AVG | .268 | .305 |
| OBP | .330 | .415 |
| Hits | 183 | 175 |
| 2Bs | 33 | 23 |
| 3Bs | 6 | 2 |
| HRs | 20 | 27 |
| RBI | 94 | 90 |
| SBs | 4 | 2 |
| BBs | 38 | 74 |
| Ks | 52 | 108 |
| OPS | .812 | .967 |
Remember, there's no right or wrong answer here, just pick the MVP. So is your vote for?
See wasn't that fun??
Ok, one more - Pick the MVP
Submitted for your approval, two more "fictional" MVP candidates from the same league, same year and each of the player's statistics are skewed equally, but each particular statistic may be/IS skewed at different ratios.
Once again, assume these guys were the only real candidates to choose from (mostly because I'm only good with a two column chart at this time and it's easier to argue/debate with two variables than three or four)
| category | "Eric" | "Andy" |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 141 | 144 |
| AVG | .257 | .309 |
| OBP | ..371 | .375 |
| Hits | 144 | 193 |
| 2Bs | 19 | 29 |
| 3Bs | 2 | 3 |
| HRs | 41 | 11 |
| RBI | 123 | 87 |
| SBs | 1 | 34 |
| BBs | 107 | 62 |
| Ks | 88 | 77 |
| OPS | .944 | .810 |
Once again, NO right or wrong answers. Just pick YOUR MVP based on the provided data. So is your vote for?
So, what the hell does this all mean?
I really have no idea. I'm not trying to "prove a point" or fulfill some sick fantasy of randomly deteriorating the very nature of ratios, statistics and facts (OK, maybe a little bit).
I'm just curious to see how statistics change/don't change people's opinions without there being any name recognition involved. You do know who these players were, but after scrambling the data (just a little bit this time) it makes people see things differently. Keep in mind, this doesn't include defensive numbers (which, in the first case was basically a wash anyway).
Later, I will add links to the players "names" so you can come back and see who they were (you know, if it bothers you enough, you'll check)
