Feast or Famine?
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by user ChiSoxMO30
This season has gone by quickly, and one-third of the season is now in the books. Believe it or not, there are other things going on besides Roger Clemens and the race (if you even want to call it that) in the AL East.
It's always fun to see what players will break-out, and what players underachieve. Let's look at my All-Overachieving team (brought to you by Tom Gorzelanny) for the first 1/3 of the 2007 season.
Note : This article was written a week or so ago, so the stats are not completely up to date.
- The All-Overachieving Team: aka the "playing over their heads" team
--Catcher: Jorge Posada (NYY) .362 AVG, 7 HR, 36 RBI, .582 SLG %, .997 OPS
Posada has been one of the best-hitting catchers in baseball for much of his career. But the guy is 35-years-old now, and has slowly lost some of his offensive skills. It's not a surprise that he's doing well, but it's almost a shock that he's doing this well.
He's on pace to break his career-high in a number of categories, and he's hitting at a blistering .362 -- tops in the majors. His .997 OPS ranks him eighth in the Majors. He can't keep this up, for sure. Who knows where the Yanks would be without his bat thus far, but it has to be a surprise that he's been their best hitter this year.
--First Base: Dmitri Young (WAS) .331 AVG, 5 HR, 28 RBI, .503 SLG%, .911 OPS
Options aplenty at first base; including Kevin Youkilis and Carlos Pena -- but I went with Young. Youkilis is having a monster season for the Red Sox. But Youkilis' pace of 90+ RBI is less surprsing than Young's.
Young is on a terrible team, and was essentially left for dead last year by the Tigers. Because of this, no one could have expected this type of season from Dmitri. In a smaller amount of playing time this season, Young has hit eight more doubles, has driven in five more runs, and has added over .70 points and .100+ points to his batting average and on base percentage, respectively. His .911 OPS would be a career-high.
It was tough not to pick Pena (.290 AVG, 10 HR, 28 RBI) or Youkilis (.350 AVG, 8 HR, 30 RBI, but I forgot Young existed just a few months ago.
--Second Base: Kelly Johnson (ATL) .300 AVG, 7 HR, 30 RBI, .401 OBP %, .908 OPS
Johnson showed flashes of his skills last season with Atlanta, but I don't think anyone saw this type of production coming. In 2006, Johnson hit just .241 and had an OPS of .731 -- both markedly lower than this current year.
He has been terrific in the leadoff spot for Bobby Cox, and has been a huge reason why Atlanta is just a half-game back of a Wild Card spot. I feel like he will continue to contribute in a number of ways, but I think his numbers will come down a bit as the season wears on.
I almost took B.J. Upton (.318 AVG, 8 HR, 29 RBI, .404 OBP %, .949 OPS) but he has a whopping 62 strikeouts in just 178 at-bats. In additon, Upton was fully expected to be a star with his bat, and the only reason it took him so long to establish himself is because he was a man without a position. Until now, that is.
His output has been incredible. In almost the same amount of AB's as 2006, Upton has increased his totals monumentally (2006: .246 AVG, 1 HR, 10 RBI, .302 OBP %, .593 OPS).
--Third Base: Mike Lowell (BOS) .337 AVG, 11 HR, 45 RBI, .595 SLG %, .992 OPS
Most third baseman so far have been vastly underachieving (see Garrett Atkins and Eric Chavez, just to name a few). But not Lowell. In fact, Lowell was the only third baseman in the entire league that seemed to be overachieiving even a little bit (Ty Wigginton has 10 HR's, but is hitting just .246).
Lowell has always been a good hitter, but the same amount of RBIs as A-Rod? I didn't see that coming -- especially after A-Rod went off during the month of April. He's on pace for 34 HR, 140 RBI, and 50 doubles; all of which would be career-highs. He's also only struck out 15 times -- a number that is extremely low for a guy with his power numbers. His strikeout-rate is by far the best of all third baseman in the majors (among qualifiers).
No player manning the hot corner on this planet has more doubles (16) or RBIs (45) than Lowell. He's also second in hits (64) and leads all qualifiers in on base percentage (.397).
--Shortstop: J.J. Hardy (MIL) .297 AVG, 16 HR, 47 RBI, .559 SLG %, .903 OPS
No-brainer.
His 47 RBIs are 10-more than the second-place shortstop (Carlos Guillen) and his 16 HRs are five-more than both Johnny Peralta and Alex Gonzalez, who are tied for second on that list. He is tops in slugging percentage and is third behind Guillen and Edgar Renteria in OPS.
Further evidence...
- 2005+2006: 159 G, 500 AB, 59 R, 123 H, 14 HR, 64 RBI, .246 AVG, .388 SLG %, .703 OPS
- 2007: 55 G, 229 AB, 35 R, 68 H, 16 HR, 47 RBI, .297 AVG, .559 SLG %, .903 OPS
I rest my case.
--Outfielder: Magglio Ordonez (DET) .362 AVG, 13 HR, 52 RBI, 28 2B, .681 SLG %, 1.117 OPS
Let's get a few things clear first. Firstly, Ordonez is a terrific player -- always has and always will be. I am not arguing that he's not great, but rather that he is playing over his head. ANYONE hitting this well is playing over their head to some degree. I'm not the least-bit surprised he's having a great season, but who could've expected this? And at age 33, after a few injury-riddled years.
Here's what he's on pace for:.359 AVG, 38 HR, 152 RBI, 146 R, 220 H, 82 2B, .679 SLG%, 1.117 OPS
What a season. Clearly none of those numbers are really attainable for Maggs, but being on pace for that type of year at this point of the season is incredible.
People forget how good Magglio was earlier in his career when he was with the White Sox. Check this...
- 1999: .301 AVG, 30 HR, 117 RBI (100 R, 34 doubles and 13 SB)
- 2000: .315 AVG, 32 HR, 126 RBI (102 R, 34 doubles and 18 SB)
- 2001: .305 AVG, 31 HR, 113 RBI (97 R, 40 doubles and 25 SB)
- 2002: .320 AVG, 38 HR, 135 RBI (116 R, 47 doubles)
- 2003: .317 AVG, 29 HR, 99 RBI (95 R and 46 doubles)
If he didn't get hurt in 2004 and 2005, Magglio could have had a chance to be a hall-of-famer. I don't see that happening now. He would have to have five monster seasons in a row, and he's not getting any younger.
Mag-pipes better enjoy this while he can, because his production has to come back down to Earth eventually. Right?
I was going to do three outfielders, but looking through the outfielders in all of baseball -- I found that seemingly all of them were UNDERachieving (Jermaine Dye, Bobby Abreu, [[Alfonso Soriano to name a few). I couldn't find anyone else that was really playing over their head.
But if I say Magglio is playing a bit over his head...that means he must be having a MONSTER season (and he is) because he's a fabolous player.
--Starting Pitcher (LHP): Tom Gorzelanny (PIT) 6-3, 2.53 ERA, 78.1 IP, 3 HR, 23 BB, 45 K
This guy was perhaps the absolute WORST pitcher in all of Spring Training. That guy could NOT get an out. Now? He's been amazingly good.
He's allowed two or fewer runs in nine of his 12 games, including six of his last seven.
I really don't think he's that good. I mean, Tom Gorzelanny?
--Starting Pitcher (RHP): Jason Marquis (CHC): 5-2, 2.93 ERA, 70.2 IP, 55 H, 1.10 WHIP, .211 BAA
Could have went with Chad Gaudin (5-1, 2.41 ERA), Matt Morris (6-2, 2.66 ERA) or who I initially had...Jeremy Guthrie (3-1, 2.76 ERA, 55 baserunners in 58 IP). But eventually I had to go with Marquis.
Think about how BAD the Cubs would be without this guy? And who in the world would have thought that before the season. Also, consider this...his ERA is almost HALF of what teammate Carlos Zambrano's.
This guy lost 16 games last season. His ERA was OVER 6.00 (6.02). He allowed 221 hits and 75 walks in 194.1 innings pitched.
And how about those 35 long balls he allowed? This year? Just five.
What in the world happened?
--Relief Pitcher: Francisco Cordero (MIL): 21 SV, 0.39 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, .081 BAA, 23.1 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 0 HR, 8 BB, 33 K
I wanted to pick Al Reyes (13 SV, 2.19 ERA, 30 K and 14 H in 24.2 IP, 37-years-old), but DID YOU SEE those numbers for Cordero???
We knew Cordero was good. But this good? He's having the best season in the history of a closer at this current pace. It would top both Eckersley and Gagne's epic season. To see an analysis of the best season in closer-history (written by me, on this blog) check here and here.
And this guy struggled last year, especially for Texas when he had more blown saves (9) than saves (6). He finished the year strong after a trade to Milwaukee and his 2006 season finished with a 10-5 record and a 3.70 ERA. On a side note, how rare is it to see a closer have 15 decisions?
But this guy wasn't exactly a WHIP machine in 2006. He allowed 69 hits and 32 walks in 75.1 innings pitched. So the thing that he's doing right now is almost unwordly.
Any other season, Reyes would be the clear runaway winner. But this is not an ordinary season in terms of closers.
