FatMan's Picks - Week 4
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by FatMan
OK. Let me just say it now. I DID IT!!!!!
I bought the Giants a victory last week! Of course, in the process, I've nearly ruined my reputation as a forecaster as bad as a drunken weatherman, and I'm so far behind in cash that my heat might get turned off when Winter comes. At least I'll have worthless predictions to burn and keep warm with. To make it clear - I fucking suck.
There. It's said. It is out there. Now there's two things I could do. Pack it in and quit like a retired gay porn star, or keep at it and improve, which is what the Law of Averages and past performance say will happen. I'm no Max Cannon, so we are staying on this ship and righting it!! No icebergs ahead. If you choose not to bet and reclaim losses, that's your choice. I put you here - let me dig you out! Let's go to the sheet, I'm grabbing my shovel.....
WEEK 4:
Baltimore at Cleveland (+4 1/2) - The Ravens are having problems closing out games. The Jets and Cards both nearly came back to win. Part of that is a lack of mental toughness. The other part is having Kyle Boller under center. The only thing you want Boller under is the 3rd guy on the depth chart. Take the Browns and hope for the best. RAVENS 20-17 (Browns cover)
Tampa Bay at Carolina (+2) - The Panthers are most likely without Jake Delhomme, which means TB defenders are upset at the lack of interception opportunities they will see. But if David Carr is in there, they will lick their chops at the prospect of getting more sacks than an obese man at White Castle. Look for the Bucs to run, run, run, all the way home - with a win. BUCS 21-16.
Chicago at Detroit (+3) - I have no clue how to pick this one. Any pop-gun defense could put a leash on Rex, but the Bears will only wait so long before Griese gets a chance to trip over the dog. However, I think Jon Kitna will get hit so hard, he's going to remember being in Seattle and only in Seattle for the next 7 days. BEARS 20-13.
St. Louis at Dallas (-11) - The Rams will be without Steven Jackson. They've lost their 3rd OL guy for the year in 3 weeks. This is not going to be good for them. They will get more battered than a.......well, Ram. Meanwhile, some guy in Canton is already chiseling a bust of Romo. God save us all. COWBOYS 35-10.
Green Bay at Minnesota (+1) - I'll say this - the Vikings are not a good team. they have no D and their QB's are a mix of terrible throwers and horrid journeymen. But they do have a good D, and Farve sucks as loud as a Nordic horn in that dome. It makes predicting this game very difficult. I think the Vikes win simply because they don't want the Pack to go to 4-0, and that's all I'm hanging my hat on. VIKES 20-13.
Houston at Atlanta (+3) - I was going to pick against Atlanta, but then DeAngelo Hall said he'd bitch-slap me and treat me like a Bad Newz Kennel animal. As shocking as that sounds, I won't put anything past a Falcon. Them kids are CRAAAAZZZYYYYY!!! I don't want to get gatted down over something this insignificant. FALCONS 24-20.
Denver at Indianapolis (-9) - The Colts are on a roll, and the Broncs barely squeaked by the first two weeks before getting clawed by the Jags. Jay Cutler is banged up and just not that good. Meanwhile Manning is healthy and spectacular. Like Teri Hatcher's pups. But really, the only Desperate Housewife in this one will be Shanahan, the rat bastard. COLTS 38-20.
Oakland at Miami (-4) - Ronnie Brown, step on up!! You're the next contestant on "The Dolphin Flava of the Week". Spin the wheel and see if you land on "Sacked for Breaking and Entering" or "Cheebed Out - Pass Go and get to the desert" or "Lead a drug-smuggling ring" or "Blown up knee - see trainer". round and round it goes, where it stops can't be good.... DOLPHINS 28-17.
Jets at Buffalo (+3.5) - The Bills are in a sorry state. Lee Evans has less catches than a blind cat. Their Polish Hammer has a broken arm. Their surfer QB just wiped out. And they are getting pasted more than a roll of wallpaper. you think they might rebound but then you look and say - - - HOW?? JETS 24-13.
Philly at Giants (+3) - Unless the Eagles are donning the ugliest uniforms known to man once again, I don't think they will have the same offensive mojo. Who came up with that design, Andy Reid's son?? i'm not buying anymore wins for the Giants, they can do it on their own. Upset Special! GIANTS 31-24.
Pittsburgh at Arizona (+5.5) - Kurt Warner success last week means two disturbing things for the Cards. 1) They will realize it was temporary and the Steelers will treat him like a grocery stockboy. 2) Cloris Leachman's twin, Brenda Warner is going to be featured. Let's face it, neither scenario is appealing. STEELERS 27-13.
Kansas City at San Diego (-12) - The Chargers are pissed. Norv Turner is red faced. We aren't sure if it is irritation from the pus-filled pock marks, or if it is embarrassment, though. Still, LT and Merriman being upset might be good enough. Do you really want a steroid freak getting enraged?? CHARGERS 31-9.
Seattle at San Francisco (+1.5) - The Seahawks do not play well in SF. I don't know if it is because they miss the coffee and the driving rainstorms, or if they have an irrational fear of gay people. All I know is that the look bad there. Bad enough that I can't bet on them. NINERS 24-21.
New England at Cincinnati (+7) - The Pats are giving too many points to go with them on the spread here. Ocho Cinco lives for the spotlight, and Monday Night is the perfect time for him to shine. The Pats win to stay undefeated and Larry Czonka gets a little more worried, but it will be close. PATS 38-35 (Bengals cover)
BEST BETS:
COWBOYS
CHARGERS
STEELERS
Last Week: Straight Up: 9-7
Spread: 3-11-2
Best Bets: 0-3
YTD: Straight Up: 29-19 (.604)
Spread: 17-27-4 (.386)
Best Bets: 2-7 (.222) (-$550)
I can't excuse the poor performance. To right the ship, I'm taking a couple high spread teams who I think will blow out their opponents. I'm embarrassed to be in the same area code as Rob Deer's batting average with my best bets. Rich Belanger is hosting a roast in my honor. Key speakers will be Mario Mendoza, Bill Bergen, and Denny Doyle. at least 1 out of the three will show up, which still beats my average by more than 100 points!! Sad, and leaves me without an appetite. and that's just not right. Remember:
"When You Want the Skinny on Picking, Turn to The FatMan"
