FatMan's Picks - Week 14

by FatMan

What a turnaround is under foot! The FatMan went above .500 vs. the spread for the 9th straight week racking up an impressive 11 wins. At one point, the percentage against the spread was .410 and now it is .533!! And the Best Bets are now $160 above water. It has been a roller coaster year, and you know what my Uncle Stan used to do after riding roller coasters?

I don't want to puke, I want to pump my chest and give everyone who jumped off the bandwagon a nice present in the form of a bird.

Why can't managers be irreverent like that anymore?? I'd have loved to beat the shit out of players who act too good to listen. Anyway, enough of me being a tough guy, bragging, and looking to shiv Reggie Jackson - - Let's go to the Sheet!!

WEEK 14:

Chicago at Washington (-3) - Looks like "The Shocker" got a makeover from the boys in Washington last week. It's now the "21" sign. I heard the 21 Gun Salute was scrapped due to it being insensitive. Maybe a more effective tribute this week will be to play the first down of the game with 21 players on defense. REDSKINS 24-17.

Indianapolis at Baltimore (+5) - The Ravens have to be devastated. They came out, played their hearts out and lost in the waning seconds to a team that appears to be destined and allowed to win by all means necessary. This could be a repeat. COLTS 27-17.

Miami at Buffalo (-7) - Cam Cameron is losing control. I'm not sure what is more interesting - breaking down the Dolphins enough to appear to give a crap or wondering if the head coach was born Cameron Cameron. Did his parents really do that to him?? BILLS 28-17.

St. Louis at Cincinnati (-3) - The Rams are an awful road team and the might have Gus Frerotten at the helm again. Meanwhile Chad Johnson is still mugging it up for a team that is 4-8. And he really doesn't appear to give a shit. He is par for the course among Bengals right now. BENGALS 27-20.

Cleveland at Jets (+3.5) - The Browns are coming off a tough loss where it looked like the push-out rule was again selectively not enforced. Got to love ambiguous rules that allow the refs to make judgements. I'd rather everything was black and white than have people who already look confused have to take undefined things into their hands. Remember, this is a group where Tony Corrente and Pete Morelli decide things. EEK! BROWNS 27-24 (Jets cover)

Dallas at Detroit (+11) - I have a suspicious feeling that the Lions are going to keep it close, but I have to decide if that is due to blind hatred towards Dallas or because I think it will really happen. I really hate Dallas, especially the owner with a cat-like face. COWBOYS 35-20.

Kansas City at Denver (-6.5) - I have no clue what to do here. The Broncos just lost to the Raiders and their playoff hopes are precarious at best. Meanwhile, the Chiefs don't even know who will be leading them out of the huddle and when they find out, it isn't going to exactly be Chief Jay Strongbow or some other tough guy. I'll go with the home team. BRONCOS 31-13.

Oakland at Green Bay (-10) - This has the makings of a rout. A warm-weather team of nancy boys going up to the Frozen Tundra to face hardened men. Holy crap does that sound gay. Maybe if I do it in my John Facenda voice. Nope - still gay. PACKERS 28-7.

Tampa Bay at Houston (+1) - This is an interesting one to call. Both teams are most likely going to have backup QB's playing. The Texans will also have Ron Dayne starting. But we are feeding date into our stats machine to see if it is a good thing or not. Shit! The machine just ate the data. Maybe it is trying to get into character... TEXANS 20-17.

Carolina at Jacksonville (-10.5) - The Panthers finally got into the win column at home!! It only took over a year. Put it this way, when they last won, Jake Delhomme was playing good football and Julius Peppers was actually trying.  And Byron Leftwich was a Jaguar. JAGS 20-14 (Panthers cover)

Minnesota at San Francisco (+8) - The Niners are a brutally poor team right now. In almost all aspects. Meanwhile Minnesota is rolling. Watch out here. I won't call an upset, but the Vikes play terrible ball on the West Coast. Terrible enough to lose to a horrid team is the biggest question. I'd say No. VIKES 21-16 (Niners cover)

Pittsburgh at New England (-13) - If you find a horseshoe on the way from Baltimore to Foxboro, don't pick it up, it is probably smeared with a pungent, brown substance. Let it go. Can the Steelers end the undefeated season and give us all the joy of watching Jim Kiick, Larry Czonka and Nick Buonocotti hobble in celebration? I'd once again say no. PATS 28-20 (Steelers cover)

Giants at Eagles (-3) - Is McNabb coming back to roost? For the Eagles sake they better hope so. Feeley blew like a Northern Wind. Eli is getting hammered these days, but still had enough moxie to get a big W last week. No, it doesn't make  him his brother, but it sure the hell proves he isn't Ed Whitson. Upset Special! GIANTS 27-24.

Arizona at Seattle (-7) - The Cards are coming on, but now they have to go the the home of the 12th man, where there are more false starts than at a jackrabbit track meet. If the slightest bit of pressure can tumble a house of cards, what the heck is a driving rainstorm going to do?? SEAHAWKS 31-20.

San Diego at Tennessee (Pick 'Em) - Whenever there is a coin flip, I'll take the Chargers and their O over the Titans D anytime. Tomlinson can negate a good D, but nothing the Titans do can spruce up their O. Well, except for use a different QB, but then it would be far less amusing to watch people fall over Vince Young by saying things like" Really QB rating doesn't tell that good a story. This guy just makes plays." Remember - they used to say that about Shawn King, too. CHARGERS 24-17.

New Orleans at Atlanta (+4.5) - What a crappy Monday Night game!! Maybe I'll flip it over to The Ocho and watch the 2004 Sumo Wrestling Finals. Does anyone televise Jarts? SAINTS 24-13.

BEST BETS:

STEELERS

CHARGERS

COLTS

Last Week:

Straight Up:    11-5

With Spread:    11-5

Best Bets:    2-1

Year to Date:

Straight Up:    121-71 (.630)

With Spread:   96-84-12 (.533)

Best Bets:    20-17-2 (.541) (+$160)

I really don't like to always pat myself on the back, but to come back from such a horrendous start has probably been my greatest achievement in the 15 years of the Sheet. I've had 4 years where the Best Bets finished over 65%, but to be at 54% after being 2-7 at one point is quite a good job. I'd tell people to suck on it, but after the Green Bay recap up top, I could really get into a sticky situation if I sound gay saying that. so I'm just going to gloat and say EAT ME! After all, I am a FatMan. And remember:

When You Want the Skinny on Picking, Turn to The FatMan