FatMan's Picks - Week 11

by FatMan

The FatMan has now had 7 winning weeks in a row! To show just how shitty his first 4 weeks were, he is only just now back to .500 against the spread and is a positive $90 on Best Bets. But profit is profit! Don't you think Home Depot would take it?? This week, things actually start to come into better focus and I expect the winning to continue. Injuries start to take tolls. Losing teams start fighting amongst themselves. Teams who have underachieved start to break for the top and will have a good run begin. And the Panthers will continue to suck donkey balls.

Hopefully, we can recognize those trends and make some profit off of it. Nothing worse than going AWOL like Stephon Marbury at a critical juncture like this. Need some extra Xmas cash?? Better run to the window. Or meet a burly Italian in a back alley. Or log onto your computer and give the UIGEA a big fuck you. For those non-degenerates, the UIGEA is the most God-awful bill ever passed. One year ago, it severely restricted online gambling.

Well this is enough hand-wringing over something that Congress failed to notice. Let's just buck up and go to the Sheet!

Week 11: Arizona at Cincinnati (-3) - Two teams who are definitely not who I thought they were. I thought the Cards had a promising year in front of them, and then Old Man Warner has been forced to play a statue for the remainder of the year. Meanwhile, there are few things that can explain the Bungles. Surely, the 17 or so arrests show a lack of discipline, but they still have a ton of talent. Makes me wonder how much longer Marvin Lewis has? You can crown their asses! Kings of Mediocrity! BENGALS 28-17.

Cleveland at Baltimore (+3) - Look at this line!! I call it the Kyle Boller Effect. He's starting, so bettors run the other way faster than a bunch of Gay Spaniards in Pamplona. Unfortunately for the Ravens, bettors won't be the only people running. Jamal Lewis and Braylon Edwards will also be streaking by. BROWNS 24-13.

Washington at Dallas (-10.5) - Let's say it straight off the bat - the Redskins will lose this game. But, I think they will keep it close. Dallas traditionally rebounds from the Thanksgiving game well, but they stumble a bit in this one, going 3-7 against the spread in the past 10 years. Man, now I just sound like a stat geek! COWBOYS 24-21 (Redskins cover)

Carolina at Green Bay (-10) - It wouldn't shock me if the Panthers made this one interesting. They play well away from home, when there are actually fans present at the start and end of games. But I can't in good conscious recommend people plunk down their hard earned money on a bunch of whining quitters. Mike Rucker celebrated a sack in the loss against the Falcons. I wonder if he watched film of Fred Lane doing The Worm in a 30-7 loss years ago? PACKERS 28-14.

New Orleans at Houston (-1) - This is the hardest game of the week for me to call. I can't seem to get either of these teams pegged correctly. Houston is up and down more than Ron Dayne's weight, and the Saints seem to put forth as much effort as a non-evacuee of Katrina.  Usually, I'd go with the Saints thinking that Reggie Bush will be difficult to stop, but  maybe if I don't think like I usually do I'll get a W here. TEXANS 21-17.

Kansas City at Indianapolis (-14.5) - Who wants to play Indy the week after Manning threw 6 INT's? A show of hands? Anyone? Bueller? COLTS 38-17.

San Diego at Jacksonville (-3) - Which Chargers team will show up? The efficient offense with LdT pounding the ball and Antonio Gates working the seam, or the mistake-filled group who has seen Phillip Rivers toss more picks than an 80's hair band guitarist? Maybe I'll use different rationale - Jacksonville won last week so they are due to lose this week. Think I'm still a stat geek?? Upset Special! CHARGERS 27-13.

Oakland at Minnesota (-5.5) - The rookie phenom is out with an injury. But this is the Raiders we are talking about. The Raiders who are bad at Oakland, and downright putrid on the road. Dante Culpepper is hobbling back to his old stomping grounds, but look for it to be as welcoming as it was right before he left. VIKINGS 24-12.

New England at Buffalo (+16) - I can't in good faith bet against a home dog getting almost 3 TD's. Even against Brady and the smarmy Pats. Somebody needs to thrash these jackoffs back to Earth, especially after all of the unsavory antics from this year. However, J.P. Losman isn't going to be the cat to crap in their Wheaties. PATS 31-20 (Bills cover)

Giants at Detroit (+3) - I'm going to take a very non-homeristic approach to this one. The Giants lead the league in sacks. The Lions lead the league in giving up sacks. They were held to -16 yards rushing last week and Kevin Jones may not play. Sure, the game is in Detroit where it is as hard on a visiting team as the rough streets outside, but I just don't see Kitna evading pressure. He'll throw a pick and fumble a couple more. GIANTS 30-20.

Miami at Philadelphia (-10) - Well, the monkey is squarely on the Dolphins back now that the Rams have won. Will this team ever win? Will they even come close to winning? Which will Larry Czonka stumble out in a drunken stupor to celebrate first: a Dolphins win or a Pats loss? EAGLES 27-13.

Pittsburgh at Jets (+9) - The Steelers are a bit of an enigma. They sleepwalk through a half in Cleveland, then arise to storm back and win. They will probably do the same this week. Hmm - the spread is the same. I'll learn from history instead of being doomed to repeat it. STEELERS 20-13 (Jets cover)

Chicago at Seattle (-5.5) - The Seattle crowd is tough as nails when they bring the noise. I should know, the Giants once had more illegal motion there than the nightly back and forth rocking in a jail cell. If Rex Grossman plays, the only over/under will be in the number of shorts the Mighty Mite will have to change in 4 quarters. SEAHAWKS 27-10

St. Louis at San Francisco (+3) - My oh my, how much difference a week makes. Last week, the Dolphins were thinking they'd surely get a win before the hapless Rams, and then the Rams went out and demolished the Saints in that crap-trap they call the SuperDome. Now, the Rams are actually favored. Then again, they are playing the Niners who have bent over 7 straight games. Anywhere else but SF that would be considered odd. NINERS 13-10.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (+3) - What a barn-burner for Sunday Night!! I might have to spend the time sharpening my hatchet and then take a chunk out of my scalp each quarter. Just anything to spare the misery. I can live through it. BUCS 24-7.

Tennessee at Denver (-2) - I'm always leery of Denver at home, especially in Prime Time games. Of course, ESPN treats these things as vessels to promote everything from "Dancing to the Stars", to their latest miniseries, to the most recent Disney movie. Pretty much anything but football. That's always such a great thing for us fans. where's that fucking hatchet?? BRONCOS 23-13.

BEST BETS:

BENGALS

CHARGERS

GIANTS

Last Week:

Straight Up:    8-6

Against spread:    7-6-1

Best Bets :    2-1

Year to Date:

Straight Up:    89-55 (.618)

Against Spread:    67-67-10 (.500)

Best Bets:    15-13-2 (.536) (+$90)

Well, there you have it. A return to break even. Is it something to crow about?? When you are $500 in the hole a couple weeks into the season, I sure the hell think it is. But then again, you could shove a gold nugget up somebody's ass and they'd complain about the fact you punctured some membranes. If I've learned one thing in life, it is that you can't make everyone happy. Your favorite team could rip off 6 wins in a row, and then when that streak ends, more than a couple "astute" fellows will be nearly giddy at pointing out why the streak ended and why more woe is in store. I guess some people like to get rammed in the nuts repeatedly with a boot.

Now where's my hatchet??? Remember:

When You Want the Skinny on Picking, Turn to The FatMan