Fantasy RB Rankings
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by Andygates23
Two a days are happening all over the country and that can only mean one thing, football is back! The first week of preseason is in the books, which means fantasy drafts are starting and any football fan gets goose bumps at those words. Even the veteran fantasy players make mistakes in their drafts which is why I’m here to help. Rule number one always draft a running back first. I don’t care if you have the last pick in a twelve team league, take back to back RBs with the 12th and 13th picks. Yes Peyton Manning is a stud and will score 300+ points but the difference between Manning and Marc Bulger (who would most likely fall to the 24th spot) is light years different than the difference between Willis McGahee or Reggie Bush compared to Jamal Lewis or Carnell Williams. Running backs are the gold of fantasy and there’s little chance of you winning your league without a lethal duo so to insure your fantasy prowess, here are my 2007 RB rankings:
1. LaDainian Tomlinson: If RBs are the gold of fantasy, LT is the platinum. This durable runner can and will do it all for his team. As I’m sure you know, he scored an NFL record 31 TDs (he also had 2 passing TDs but for some reason they don’t count towards the record, but they’re plenty good in fantasy) and rushed for over 1,800 yards. LT won’t have those numbers again this year. There is talk of letting Michael Turner get more carries this season in order to get his value up for a possible midseason trade, but don’t let that deter you from taking LT with confidence. He’s still the best in the game and with Philip Rivers going in to his second year as a starter the Chargers offense will be fierce and LT will once again have huge numbers.
2. Steven Jackson: If anyone has a chance of challenging LT as the fantasy king it’s Jackson. This guy was nothing less than amazing last year and this year he says he’ll be even better. His goal is to get 2,500 total yards this season and it is a very realistic goal considering he had 2,300 last year and head coach Scott Linhan saying he wants to increase his star back’s carries this year. Throw in the 18 TDs that he’s bound to get and you’ve got a guy that will lead your team into the playoffs.
3. Shaun Alexander: After the big two there’s a little bit of a drop off at the third spot. There are about four guys that are arguably the third best, but I like Alexander here. Last year his numbers dropped considerably due to a broken foot, but he has assured his team and fans that his injury is no longer a problem. Maybe just as important is Matt Hasselbeck’s health. He, like his RB, is back to his old self and is confident his team can make another Super Bowl run. Can Alexander have another season as he did two years ago when he had 1,800+ yards and 28 rushing TDs? If he stays healthy it’s possible with All-World Walter Jones blocking for him. I expect big things from Alexander this year.
4. Larry Johnson: Right now there is much concern about LJ holding out, but I’m here to say there other things to worry about with this beast of a RB. There’s little doubt LJ will get signed sooner than later. There are reports saying he could be in camp as early as Friday and with the Chiefs’ offensive woes they need the heart of the team. There are all kind of problems in KC. Who will be there starting QB? Will it be the young, strong armed but mistake prone Brodie Croyle or the guy who had 11 TDs and only 1 INT filling in for the injured Trent Green last season Damon Huard? With those numbers it seems like an easy decision for most people but not head coach Herman Edwards. In fact he’s leaning towards the youngster even though he continues to make high risk with little reward throws. But the main concern is the offensive line. The retirement of Will Shields is bound to make somewhat of a difference in both the passing and running game, but more so the running. Now with all that said LJ is still the #4 back, yes he’s that good. This team will once again turn to the run more often than not and Johnson will be there to carry the load. LJ is extremely durable (he carried the ball an NFL record 416 times last year) and he’ll have to carry this team for them to have a prayer in the AFC West. Johnson will once again take his annual spot as a top five back when the season is done.
5. Joseph Addai: Addai is one of my favorites this year. The last time the Colts had a feature back it was Edgerrin James and he averaged 1,389 yards and 10 TDs on the ground a season (when he started at least 7 games). This year Addai takes the role of featured back now that Dominic Rhodes is gone to Oakland. There is talk that Addai will only get 15-20 touches a game and his backup DeDe Dorsey will get the ball when he doesn’t, but Dorsey is very inexperienced and played his college ball at Lindenwood. Where is that you ask? Nobody knows. I fully expect Addai to get 90% of the carries and to have an Edge in Indy like season.
6. Frank Gore: Gore was the breakout back of ’06 as he surprised everybody with over 2,000 total yards with 9 TDs. Gore has unprecedented skills and his offense should be better this season. His goal is to have 2,000 yards rushing this season and while that’s a very high achievement if he stays healthy it is possible, but that’s a big if. Gore has had both of his knees surgically reconstructed and has already broken his hand in camp. While the hand injury shouldn’t have any impact on his season, his fragile legs may.
7. Rudi Johnson: Rudi has averaged 1,400 yards and 12 TDs on the ground the past three seasons. There were plans to reduce Rudi’s workload this season, but that all changed when rookie Kenny Irons went on the IR last week. Johnson will once again get his average and probably more with this unstoppable offense.
8. Laurence Maroney: With Corey Dillon gone Maroney will get basically all the carries and with the receivers the Patriots acquired in free agency the safeties will be way out of the box for Maroney to run wild.
9. Willie Parker: Fast Willie was another breakout back last year with 1,700 yards and 16 total TDs, but with Ken Whisenhunt gone to Arizona the Steeler offense is expected to do a 180. Head coach Mike Tomlin wants to throw the ball a lot more going four wide as their primary offense which doesn’t boast well for Parker. He won’t have the production he had last year, but he will have his share of great games.
10. Travis Henry: The star RB producing Denver has a new (and experienced) future 1,500 yard rusher. Henry looked fantastic in his Bronco debut against the Niners bowling over would be tacklers and scoring a TD. Henry’s value may go up as the preseason continues because with his power and Denver’s blocking, we might be seeing a new Terrell Davis in Mile High Stadium.
11. Brian Westbrook: I put Westbrook here only for leagues with points per reception. If your league doesn’t have that stat I’d drop him about five spots on my draft board. But because he catches so many quick out passes he is a big threat to break one for a long TD. His production also depends a lot on Donovan McNabb’s health. With their star QB the Eagles have a very dangerous offense, but without him they become mediocre and so does Westbrook.
12. Edgerrin James: James finished the ’06 season on a high note averaging 4.2 yards per carry in his last five games topping the 100 yard mark three times in that span. I expect to see a much better year for Edge as new head coach Ken Whisenhunt brings in his run heavy offense and has already drastically improved the offensive line with fifth overall pick Levi Brown and with the threat of Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald the run should be successful.
13. Willis McGahee: It wasn’t that long ago when the Ravens had a 2,000 yard back and McGahee hopes to come close to that number this year. Willis definitely has the moves and with that defense he’ll get a lot of carries. Can McNair keep the safeties back? If so, look for a big year for McGahee and the Ravens.
14. Ronnie Brown: If anyone saw Miami’s first preseason game they’ll know why Brown is so low on my board. The O-Line couldn’t block anyone Saturday night as they got booed off the field at their home stadium. Trent Green was hit on almost every play and Brown rarely made it back to the line of scrimmage without being rocked. Yes they were playing the Jaguars who have one of the best D-Lines in football and it was only the first preseason game, but they need mass improvement and I do expect them to. Brown has speed, power and illusiveness all he needs is a few blockers.
15. Reggie Bush: Much like Westbrook, Bush has much more value in leagues with points per receptions, but even in leagues without it Bush is a force. He is a legitimate threat to score every time he touches the ball. He has great hands and speed and is on possibly the best offense in the NFL. Head coach Sean Payton plans to use Bush as a slot receiver a lot this year. Could he improve on his outstanding 88 receptions last year? Well, I wouldn’t count on that but it will be close. I do expect his TD total to increase. Look for Bush to start becoming a premier fantasy back.
16. Cedric Benson: With Thomas Jones in New York Benson has the backfield all to himself and much like McGahee, his defense will get him a lot of carries. But Benson doesn’t have the speed of Willis or the moves. He has been working on catching the ball in the off-season which was a problem for him last year. He’ll finally get the chance to show why he was the #4 overall pick. I expect Benson to be a solid #2 back.
17. Thomas Jones: Jones is one of the most underrated RBs in fantasy, but Thomas has rushed for over 1,200 yards the past two seasons. Now Jones brings his dependable running to New York where success is demanded and the fans won’t be disappointed. Expect Jones to get 1,300+ yards with double digit TDs.
18. Clinton Portis: Portis has finally gotten plagued by injuries. Last year he suffered a separated shoulder and a broken hand and this year he’s already battling tendonitis in his knee. With how well Ladell Betts substituted for Portis there is a fear that Betts could steal a fair share of carries, but if Portis is healthy he’s the clear cut #1 back. Portis and coach Joe Gibbs said that if it was a regular season game that he’d play which is a good sign. If Portis stays healthy he could rocket up draft boards with his talent, but keep a close eye on him because he is a risk.
19. Deuce McAllister: I hate to put two backs from the same team on my board, but with this offense I have to. Deuce is the power behind this offense and should get most of the goal line carries. The great thing about this offense is that Deuce and Bush will be on the field at the same time for much of the game which has and will drive defenses insane. Deuce will get plenty of touches and TDs.
20. Maurice Jones-Drew: Although Fred Taylor just signed a contract extension and is listed as the #1 back in Jacksonville, there’s little doubt who will be the rushing star for the Jaguars. Drew had an explosive rookie season scoring 15 total TDs. With his low center of gravity Drew almost always makes the first man miss and is very hard to bring down. Drew should push Taylor out of the starting job this season solidifying his role as the franchise’s future.
21. Brandon Jacobs: With Tiki Barber sitting in a studio this season it leaves a huge hole in the Giants backfield. Jacobs is expected to fill that hole and with his 6’4” 264 lbs frame he’ll not only fill it, he’ll destroy it. He is an ideal goal line back, but the question is can he be an every down guy. The Giants also added Reuben Droughns to their roster just in case, but I see Jacobs doing well in his new spotlight role.
22. Carnell Williams: “Cadillac” had an awful season last year. He had a total of one TD and was on the 29th ranked offense in the NFL. This year coach Jon Gruden thinks that Caddy could become the every down back he envisioned when he drafted the Auburn standout. With the addition of Jeff Garcia I see the Bucs’ offense improving greatly and Williams will play a big role in that progression.
23. Jamal Lewis: The former 2,000 yard rusher says he’s in the best shape of his life, unfortunately he’s also on the Cleveland Browns. But he is their #1 back and should get a lot of carries.
24. Marion Barber III: I am a big advocate of Barber being the starter in Dallas. He may not have the speed of Julius Jones, but he runs with more heart and a lot more power. Barber often came in for Jones in the red zone because of this and the result was great. Barber scored 16 TDs last year and I don’t see that number drastically decreasing in’07.
25. Marshawn Lynch: Lynch will be the starter in Buffalo and although he’s a rookie, the starting RB for the Bills has rushed for over a thousand yards 4 out of the last 5 years (it would have been 5 for 5 but McGahee missed it by 10 yards last year). Lynch has a good chance to turn some heads this year and he’s worth a late round pick up.
Have fun at your drafts and remember to look at bye weeks when you do. That’s a very common mistake that is easily avoidable. Come back tomorrow for my quarterback rankings and thank God football is back.
