Fantasy Football Geekly: Week 8
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by user Demonboy
Week 7 proved very interesting. There were some things around the NFL that no one could ever predict. Let's take a moment and review a few of them.
- Houston 27 Jags 7 - For the first time in what seems to be forever, Houston finally had an RB that rushed for more than 70 yards. In fact, it was Wali Lundy that rushed for 93 with a TD. Byron Leftwich was held to a mere 125 yrds passing and NO TD's. Oh yeah, did you have the Texans Def on your roster for a bye week filler?? I didn't think so.
- Joey "Blue Skies" Harrington - was a fantasy God. For the first time in his career, he threw for 414 yards with 2 TD's. Yes folks you read that right - Harrington threw for 414 yards!! Go figure though. With a worse O line than he had with the Lions, he does this kind of a performance. Did you have him as a bye week filler? Didn't think so.
- Oakland Raiders are winless no more. They defeated the Cardinals 22 - 9. Hey, I'm happy for Oakland but could they have waited a bit until AFTER I, along with many people, used Matt Leinart and the Cardinal Def as a bye week filler. UGH!!
- My beloved Lions give up 221 rushing yards to the Jets. With the bulk coming from rookie RB Leon Washington who had 129 yrds & 2 TD's. If this is what it's going to be for the Lions rushing defense while Shaun Rogers serves his 4 week suspension, advice - pick up any/all RB's that are facing the Lions. Did you have Washington as a filler? Didn't think so on this one either.
- Congrats goes out to team Michalski81. I finally suffored my first loss in the ArmchairGM Fantasy Football League. Go figure though, it took a 2-4 team to take me down.
As for my leagues though, I went 10-6 in 16 leagues but my overall is still a combined 71-40-1 .628 PCT with 2 undefeated teams left. Now on to this weeks report.
Now that the season is a little more than half over, teams are starting to jockey for thier playoff position. Depending on the size of your league, the playoff sizes can be anywhere from 4-6 teams in a 10 - 12 team format. Or can be as large as 8 teams in the playoffs in a 14+ team league.
Side note: If you're in a league that's 14-20 teams, either you must be really good and don't need any of my advice (lol), or a masochist and play in those just for the abuse of trying to find a decent player for those god-awful bye weeks (lol)
Anyways, again depending on your league, playoffs start anywhere from week 12-14. If most or all of your main starters are off of thier bye weeks, now is the time to start looking for your final roster for your playoff run. You can drop those 2nd QB's that you only picked up for a bye, drop those inadequit 4th RB or WR's, 2nd Defenses, etc etc. Start picking up the players that will give you some extra depth.
Side Note #2: If your league's playoffs go all the way until week 17, not only go with your normal picks, but also start looking at some of the "stars of the team's" backups. As the NFL playoffs get closer and some teams are locked into either a playoff spot or divisional win, teams will be benching some of their primary players to conserve them for the playoffs. I.e. The Bears win the NFC North in week 13 or 14, do you honestly think that Coach Smith will continue to start/use Thomas Jones the whole game the rest of the season? I don't - he'll use Cedric Benson instead as the primary carrier. So that's something else you have to keep in mind.
Now you maybe asking yourself "why start taking about Fantasy playoffs now?" That's easy - if you have an honest shot at making the playoffs, it might take several weeks to get the roster looking the way you want. That way during those crucial playoff games, your not scrambling to look for someone. If your in first place by 2 or more games, that's a good enough lead to start making the needed changes to dominate during playoff time. If you're in the middle of the pack and within 3 games of the leader, you have to start thinking about the playoffs now. In most leagues, not all "middle of the packers" make the final cut into the playoffs - someone always gets left out. Do you want to be that team that misses the playoffs just because you tied a team that made it in wins/losses but lost out due to that team scored more points than you? I didn't think so. In essence, any and all advantages you can get now will help you in those positions.
To give you a small example: In my $150 league, it's a 10 team league with 2 divisions (5 teams each division). In my division the leader has only a 1 game advantage - however, the rest of us 4 are tied for 2nd place (very tight - seperated by only points). As for the other division, that leader has the same record as ours and 2 teams are tied for 2nd. That's 8 teams within 1 game of each other - only 6 make the playoffs and the divisional winners get $250. Am I thinking about a playoff spot now jockying for a better position? Absolutely!
As of right now - you have 5-7 weeks (depending on your league) to get into the playoffs and the clock is ticking. As an aquaintence of mine kid says "It's all about the money!". Oh how I wish I can get into his league 'hint' 'hint' Shawnie B. :)
Over the next few weeks, there will be an abundance of information to start making those playoff runs - almost an overload. So instead of throwing everything out at you at once, I'll be putting in my top picks a little at a time.
Injury Report
- Matt Hasselbeck - Strained knee ligament. Out 2-4 weeks.
- Ben Roethlisberger - Concussion. Out at least week 8.
UPDATE Roethlisberger had scans done on his brain and neck, and they came back normal. He practiced in the individual workouts on Wednesday and might start Sunday. EIther way, it's a bad matchup against the NFL's #1 passing defense. Joebook
- Shaun Alexander - Still out with his foot. It's quiet possible that week 8 will be his last week on the IR. Reserve him for week 8 but keep an eye out for him to possibly return in week 9. Unless Holmgren gives in to Shaun's plees to play in week 8 - if he does play, tough call - but I would still reserve him just as a precautionary measure.
- Larry Fitzgerald - Hamstring. Initial reports from Mon Oct. 9 stated he were that he would be out 2-4 weeks. Follow his progress - he "could" return this week against Green Bay. Early reports had him out until week 10 against Dallas.
- Matt Jones - Groin injury. Del Rio confirmed that he will be on the IR list for week 8. Even IF he does play, since Matt is not up to full speed yet, not a good play against Philly.
UPDATE Jones had a full day of practice on Wednesday and is listed as questionable to play. It isn't a great matchup, as Leftwich is still injured and Jones hasn't played since Week 4. Joebook
- Brandon Stokley - Still out with his ankle. Expect him to be out another week or 2.
- Donte Stallworth - Hamstring. There is a pretty good chance that he'll play against Jacksonville. For those Stallworth owners - monitor this one closely.
- LaMont Jordan - Back. Status is uncertain. Even if/when he does play, I would leave him on the bench or drop him completely.
- Clinton Portis - Mild high ankle sprain. This could keep him out of practice during Washington's bye week. If anything develops further, I'll let you know. For now though, Clinton's status is uncertain. However, if you have room on your bench and are a Portis owner, I would pick up his backup (Ladell Betts) just in case Clinton's situation gets worse.
Play Em
- Seneca Wallace - He's been in the Seahawks system for 3 years and is more mobile than Hasselbeck. With Seattle going against the Chiefs, he should be a decent pick up for those Hasselbeck owners.
- Philip Rivers - Rivers has had 3 straight games of 2 TD's. Now San Diego goes against the Rams defense. Translation - this could be a solid start.
- Chad Pennington - 3 words - Going against Cleveland! START START START!!!!
- Amani Toomer & Plaxico Burress - Both are strong long ball threats. Did you see how many times that either one was targeted for longer than 20yrds on Monday Night Football against the #2 rated defense of Dallas?? Now the Giants play against Tampa Bay. I can see big things for either or both.
- Deion Branch - Even though Seneca Wallace is starting, Branch still could be a decent start with a TD.
- Rex Grossman, Bernard Berrian & Thomas Jones - This trio should all have a great game against the 49ers.
- Travis Henry - Yes Tennessee is going against a Texans team that shut down Jacksonville, but do you honestly think that Hou's defense will be that good 2 weeks in a row? I don't.
- Charlie Batch & Hines Ward - With Big Ben out, this will be the QB-WR tandum facing a weak Oakland team.
- Wali Lundy - After Lundy's 93 yrd 1 TD breakout performance against Jacksonville, with Houston going against Tennessee, expect more of the same if not better.
Sit Em
- LaMont Jordan - He's becoming more & more like a dud as this season progresses. Advice - drop him completely if you have other options. I have him in a few of my leagues so I feel your pain here.
- Frank Gore - Hate to say this one. But, San Fran plays a very very tough run defense of the Bears.
- Reggie Bush - Unless your league allows for individual return yardage, this is not an advisable start with the Saints going against a tough run defense of Baltimore.
- Terrell Owens & Terry Glenn - With Tony Romo now at the helm, I would not trust this matchup against Carolina. While Romo may do good in the long run, during Monday Night's game he made too many rookie type mistakes which would be exploited with Carolina's defense. Romo doesn't look down field enough to see Owens or Glenn - there were a couple of opportunities for both to make a play and Romo could not get them the ball for whatever reason. Some 'experts' are saying to pick up Romo and T.O., Glenn & Witten are all must starts. However, personally, until Romo shows improvement, I would sit all of these guys for now.
Waiver Wire
- Amani Toomer & Plaxico Burress - Not only for reasons mentioned above. But in the long run, if your trying to build some depth at WR, these 2 aren't bad picks (Toomer is better but if he's unavailable, Plax isn't bad). Weeks 8-17 the Giants play Tampa Bay (week 8), Hou (week 9), at Tennessee (week 12), home against Dallas (week 13), New Orleans (week 16) and at Washington (week 17). As you can see, there are some very favorable matchups.
- Mike Furrey - The Lions are on a bye in week 8, but Furrey has become a very good receiver this year. Down the road, The Lions play San Fran (week 10), at Arizona (week 11), Miami (week 12) & Green Bay (week 15). With the Lions starting to 'click' on offense (it's thier defense that just blows), Furrey can help if your weak in WR depth in some matchups.
- Jerious Norwood - This Falcons backup RB has 290 rushing yards for the year. But in games were Dunn will probably be sitting a lot due to blow outs, Norwood isn't a bad low end 2RB or high 3RB in some leagues. The Falcons play Detroit (week 9), Cleveland (week 10), New Orleans (week 12), Washington (week 13) & Tampa Bay (week 14).
- Michael Jenkins - Another Atlanta player, this time at WR. Now that Vick has finally got a passing game, Jenkins would not be a bad 3rd WR or flex option coming down the stretch. I wouldn't bet my whole team on him - BUT he could help.
- Jon Kitna - In 7 weeks, he's averaging 24-38 265 yrds 1.28 TD per game. If you don't get penalized too much for sacks (3.28 per game), Jon is not a bad pick as a low end #1 QB or high end #2 depending on your league.
- Justin Fargas - With LaMont Jordan out, Fargas will be the primary ball carrier in Oakland. In week 7, he rushed 23 times for 66 yrds. Not a great pick up but not bad either. For you Jordan owners, if no other option is available, pick up Fargas.
- Leon Washington - It appears that Leon will be the primary ball carrier for the Jets. While he might not be the best, he's still a solid #3 RB or flex option pick. Up and coming games - Browns (week 8), Hou (week 12), Green Bay (week 13), Miami (week 16) & Oakland (week 17). 5 chances for some great production/points.
Bye Week Teams
Lions, Bills, Miami & Washington
Questions
Now onto the questions format for this week. I'll answer questions 3 ways. You can either type a question in the comments section, IM me through Yahoo IM - my ID is xdemonboy or through Meebo. simply follow the instuctions underneath the box below. I'll try and answer as any as I can. I'll make an edit to this page with the questions & answers that were asked to me in Yahoo & Meebo.
Feel free to use the above to chat with me in real-time. Please replace the automatically-produced nickname with your ArmchairGM user name, so I know who I'm talking to. Thanks! (You can click here for full-screen chat.)
Q: - I am looking to acquire C. Taylor due to his his easy schedule down the road and into the fantasy playoffs. I have been offered Taylor and Toomer for Ronnie Brown and L. Fitz. Fitz and Brown both have tough schedules down the road and Brown hasn't been that great. It seems Mularkey doesn't even want to use him. Should I make this trade or stand pat.
A: - With the debocle offense in Arz, and Brown underperforming, I would do this trade. Toomer is going to be a stud in at least 5 of the next up & coming weeks - he'll definately perform better than Fitzgerald during that span. I like the Vikes schedule. So this trade definately works in your favor.
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