Fantasy Football Geekly: Week 1
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by Doug Kaufman
Welcome to week 1 of the 2007 football season. Finally there's real ball to watch instead of this preseason crap. Now week 1 has a few very interesting games that may concern a few fantasy owners out there.
- Colts vs Saints. We all know that Drew Brees & Reggie Bush are typically tier 2 maybe low end tier 1 fantasy players. But, how will they fare against the Colts defense? In 2006 the Colts had a rush against average of 91.8 yards (11th) & 177.2 passing against (9th).
- Falcons vs Vikings. Wow, who let the dogs out? (sorry for the pun) Normally, this would be a no-brainer but, with Michael Vick out indefinately and Joey Blue Skies under center, there won't be much of an acurate passing game. Both Harrington and Tavaris Jackson will be throwing........ A LOT! This will be a high scoring game (low to mid 30's on both sides) due to no defense on either side. Expect a big numbers game from Jackson, Warrick Dunn, Alge Crumpler & Joe Horn.
- Bears vs Chargers. The number 1 pre-season ranked defense against LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates, Phillip Rivers & Vincent Jackson. With Da Bears loosing 2 key players on the defensive line & 2 safeties, this should be a good game for Tomlinson and company (Urlacher can't be everywhere).
- Ravens vs Bengals also looks interesting. While Baltimore has a very good defense, how much can they stop Rudi Johnson, Carson Palmer & Chad Johnson? Answer - a lot! This is shaping up to be a low scoring game.
- On the low end of the spectrum, there's the Raiders vs Lions. This year, the Lions are supposed to show off a "great" air game with Kitna, Williams, Johnson and even Tatum Bell getting into the mix. But, just like always, Detroit's defense (especially the secondary) is very suspect with 300.8 passing yards against in 2006 (31st). Can Daunte Culpepper Ooops excuse me Josh McCown muster up enough air game to exploit this?
Quick thought: No trades the 1st couple of weeks of the season. Reason being - you put all this time & effort in preparing for your draft and you're going to blow it all away on a moment of idiocity? Unless the trade absolutely blows me (and you too) away, no trades!
Must starts
We all know who the obvious starters should be Tomlinson, Gore, Larry Johnson, Manning, etc etc in other words; everyone you drafted in the first 5-7 rounds better be starting! But lets look a little deeper into the must starters for those leagues with 2 QB's or maybe those flex positions.
- Matt Schaub - Yes you read that right. Start Schaub! The Chiefs allowed an average of 211.5 passing yards against in 2006. Schaub has the talent so why not? He's also got a great reciever in Andre Johnson to run the deep patterns.
- Ben Roethlisberger - Going against the Browns, you have to like this matchup. However, if you have both Ben and Tom Brady, then the choice is obvious - go with Brady there.
- D.J. Hackett - With Darrell Jackson gone, D.J. will have an opportunity to become the Seahawks #2 WR.
- Donte Stallworth - 70 yards and a TD wouldn't suprise me here. For a flex position, that's not bad.
Low risk / high reward starts
- Tenn Defense & Vince Young - Two things here; first off this will be Young's 'warm up' game. He'll get you many yards (several hundred) in the air and a few more on the ground. The defense - well let's just say - David Garrard - he'll be getting sacked quiet a bit.
- All Pittsburgh Steelers you can including thier defense. The Browns, who have a coach that coin flipped for the starter - is done after this year. Same goes for the 2 starting QB's in Cleveland (Fyre & Anderson) - Brady Quinn will start next year under the tutalage of, get this, Jack Del Rio...yes, after the Jags miss the playoffs by 1 game, he will be available... you read that here first!
- Mike Bell - Gotta love this flex filler against a weak Bills defense. Low risk high reward if it works out.
High risk starts
- Jamal Lewis - I know that he's in Cleveland now but, reports are that he's injury free and has lost weight and in shape. Some reports (depending where you read) say that he's back in his 2003 shape and just as quick. If this is the case, expect 1,700 - 2,000 yards from him this year. HOWEVER, This week Pitts "Steel Curtain" defense is back so there won't be much of a ground game from Cleveland.
- Alex Smith - Against the Cardinals, expect about 175-200 yards with 2 TD's.
- Derrick Mason - Even though Baltimore won't score many points, Mason should still get you about 100 yards with 1 TD.
- Marion Barber - It appears that the Wade Phillips offense is NOT AS HIGH with Barber as it was with the Bill Parcells offense was. In essence, Barber may not get as many touches as you might think. Sorry to all of you who drafted Barber in the 4th & 5th rounds.
Good luck!
