Fantasy B.J.'s Hardcore NFL Picks -- Week 7

by Bjrudell

(REPRINTED FROM http://fantasybj.blogspot.com)

Despite Warner's inability to play past the 5th minute of the game, 3 players come through as hardcore performers last week:

• As anticipated, Larry Johnson rebounded from his worst performance in years with a stellar game against a sub-par defense.

• Meanwhile, Bobby Engram took advantage of Deion Branch's injury to dominate against the Saints' cornerbacks.

• And let's not forget about the Eagles Defense, which prevented the pitiful Jets from getting into the end zone.

If you had played these 3 players last week, you would have been well on your way to winning.

Speaking of Warner, we all get screwed by players who play when they shouldn't and who don't play when they should. Hardcore fantasy players operate on two tracks.  The first is a long-term track, holding onto--or trading for--great players who are severely underperforming. Now if they're underperforming because of injury, that should be a red flag. But if you have Drew Brees or Lee Evans, when fantasy playoffs hit, you might have two fantasy studs who can help you bring home the championship, as it's only a matter of time before such great players return to greatness.

The second approach is a short-term track. In any given week, you might have 1 or 2 players who need to be upgraded. Remember what I wrote in one of my first blogs, and which is one of the primary tenets of the hardcore approach:

Don't expect to win if you keep playing the same line-up.

Mediocre players rarely have two great games in a row. Examine their opponent for the upcoming week, as well as what people are saying about them in the local newspaper.  There are always going to be weeks when mediocre players dominate. Do your homework, and you'll make your week-to-week line-ups as good as they can be... without sacrificing your long-term goal of having the best overall team come playoff time.

Here are your Week 7 hardcore picks:

QB -- Drew Brees: As mentioned earlier, he is the proto-typical underperformer this season. In fact, now is a good time to trade for Brees; you can probably get him for cheap, as there are about 15-20 QBs playing better than him.  But you should remember that last year was no fluke; Brees has proven year after year that he is an upper-tier QB. Last week things finally started to gel for the Saints. Expect continued improvements this week at home against a relatively weak Falcons defense. 

RB -- Kenny Watson is as gutsy a pick as you'll read on this blog. As a side note, I strongly believe that Reggie Bush will continue to improve in his role as #1 RB on the Saints, displaying the playmaking abilities that made him legendary in his rookie year and in college. But Watson was available in my league as recently as yesterday, and I picked him up without hesitation after Rudi Johnson was downgraded to "doubtful." Watson has done a solid job filling in for Johnson in recent weeks.  After an embarrassing loss to the Chiefs last week, the Bengals now face the Jets, who own one of the worst rush defenses.  The Bengals will show no mercy, which means big points for Watson.

WR -- Patrick Crayton: Cowboys high-powered offense + avenging tough loss to Patriots + Vikings worst-rated pass defense + Crayton's important role in the Dallas offense = big numbers.

TE -- Vernon Davis: When he's hurt--which is often--he's useless. But don't forget that Davis was a 1st round pick who has a lot to prove. With Dilfer starting at QB, look for a lot of shorter and safer routes, which will benefit Davis. He's been dropped or benched in almost every league. Now is the time to restore your faith in this incredible physical specimen.

Defense -- The Saints: Desperate for a 1-week fill-in?  You could do a lot worse than the resurging Saints, who are facing the Byron Leftwich-led Falcons. Leftwich looked as lost as a high schooler when he came into the game two weeks ago. Surrounded by a low-end receiving corps, the Saints D should keep Atlanta on their heels all game.