Failed Expectations
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by user ChiSoxMO30
Every season there are a group of players who "play over their heads" for a period of 162 games. on the flip side, there is another group that doesn't come close to matching their expected numbers.
The following is a list of players that fall into the latter category. On the positive side, these guys can expect an increase in production for the rest of the year. These players have vastly underachieved, and -- according to track record and common sense -- will likely finish with numbers closer top what was expected. Either way, here are the players who have disappointed their teams, fans -- and especially fantasy owners.
Note: This article was written a few days ago, so the statistics are not completely up to date.
--Catcher: Ronny Paulino (PIT) .219 AVG, 5 HR, 21 RBI, .265 OBP %, .342 SLG %
As a rookie last year, Paulino was terrific -- finishing fifth among all starting catchers with a .310 batting average. The power wasn't there (5 HR in 442 AB's) but he did produce, driving in 55 runs. Because of his stellar rookie campain - for a catcher, at least -- a lot more was expcted of him this time around. And he appeared to be on that track when he tore it up in Spring Training -- launching home runs at a blistering pace.
But it hasn't quite worked out that way. Paulino is hitting almost .100 points lower, and just about every other number is way down. He has increased his power (5 HR already) but the massive dropoff across the board hardly comes close to making up for that.
Surprisingly, Paulino ranks second-to-last in batting average (.219) among the 17 catchers who qualify for the batting title. Can't say I saw that coming. I expected some dropoff in batting average from last year, but this is extreme.
--First Base: Paul Konerko (CHW) .244 AVG, 10 HR, 31 RBI, .337 OBP %, .429 SLG %
What happened to the guy who hits .290 with 35 HR and 110 RBI every year?? Apparently, he doesn't work in Chicago anymore. His power numbers -- and everything else, for that matter -- are way, way down. And his struggles, along with the rest of the offense, has put the White Sox in a deep hole in the AL Central.
He's starting to come around lately, but this guy struggled so mightily on the outset of the season, that he still ranks 18th in batting average and 15th in slugging percentage. When Dmitri Young is slugging almost .100 points higher than you -- well, you have a problem.
He'll turn it around, but it may just be too late for Chicago.
--Second Base: Josh Barfield (CLE) .250 AVG, 2 HR, 29 RBI, 8 BB, 48 K, .344 SLG %, .281 OBP %
Check out this stat: Barfield is slugging (.344) LESS than Luis Castillo -- who has 5 doubles and 1 triple in 208 AB's. Despite having no homers, and only 6 XBH all year -- Castillo is slugging .011 higher than Barfield.
His OPS is an impossibly-low .623 -- mainly due to his horrid power numbers and insanely-low 8 walks in 224 AB. Barfield enjoyed a pretty decent rookie season last year in San Diego (.280 AVG, 13 HR, 58 RBI, 21 SB) but his numbers are just horrid in his second year. Sophomore slump? Looks like it. But this kid is no future superstar by any means.
But Cleveland was hoping for a hell of a lot more than this. Especically because many pitchers are slugging higher than he is. Not good. He doesn't walk, strikes out too much, doesn't hit for power or for average. He doesn't do much of anything nowadays. I expect that to change some. It can't be this bad all season long.
--Third Base: Joe Crede (CHW) .216 AVG, 4 HR, 22 RBI, 5 2B, 13 R, .258 OBP %, .317 SLG %, .576 OPS...AND Garrett Atkins (COL) .236 AVG, 4 HR, 24 RBI, .362 SLG %
Quiz: Who won the AL Silver Slugger Award last season at third base? Guess A-Rod? Well, you're wrong. It was Crede. And he deserved it too (.283 AVG, 30 HR, 94 RBI, 31 doubles, .506 SLG %). Not a monster season, but it was better than A-Rod's in many respects.
But this year? I don't think A-Rod has much to worry about this time around. No chance for Crede to overtake A-Bomb for ANY award -- and especially because Crede is now expected to miss the rest of the season with a serious back injury.
Crede is just shy of qualifying for the batting title with 167 AB's, but if he did -- he would be second to last in the majors with a .216 clip. And believe it or not, his .576 OPS would rank DEAD LAST in all of baseball for third baseman. One has to think his back has been bothering him all season long.
Despite all of this, Crede has been nearly as disappointing as Garrett Atkins -- and I'm not just saying that because I predicted him to lead the ML in RBI's before the season started. Well, maybe I am.
Check out the following...
2007 pace: .236 AVG, 10 HR, 62 RBI, .321 OBP %, .362 SLG %, 62 R, 140 H, .683 OPS
2006: .329 AVG, 29 HR, 120 RBI, .409 OBP %, .556 SLG %, 117 R, 198 H, .965 OPS
His struggles really leave me bewildered. He had a HUGE 2006 season, and he's just 27 years old -- seemingly the perfect prime-season age. And last time I checked, he plays in a pretty good hitters ballpark. I thought he would hit .320 and hit 35 HR and drive in 130, but I was sadly mistaken.
There's still time to salvage the year and have a decent season, but maybe he's hurt. That's the only explanation I can come up with.
--Shortstop: Bobby Crosby (OAK) .241 AVG, 6 HR, 24 RBI, 40 K, .286 OBP %, .366 SLG %, .652 OPS
As you can tell from my blog name, Peter Gammons is my idol. But when he predicted that Bobby Crosby would win the AL MVP last season -- I was shocked. This guy hasn't proved ANYTHING in his career. I could care less about his Rookie of the Year Award in 2004 -- the guy just isn't that good.
And he continues to improve it year after year -- when he's actually healthy, that is. Look, I like the guy. But I'm NOT impressed with his overall game.
He was downright AWFUL last year: 9 HR and 12 2B in 358 AB's. Oh, and a .229 AVG. Oh, and 76 strikeouts. How about a .298 OBP %? I certainly haven't given up on him -- he's got talent for sure -- but I'm almost ready to pull the plug on this guy. He hasn't been any better this year, either, with a .286 AVG and horrendous ..652 OPS.
I mean, think about it. Even in his "great" 2004 season, he hit .239 and struck out 141 times! I don't care about 22 lousy home runs. What I see is that he only had a .745 OPS in that season. This guy isn't capable of winning an MVP in the International League. Sorry.
--Outfielder: Jermaine Dye (CHW) .226 AVG, 11 HR, 32 RBI, .283 OBP %, .430 SLG %
I'm thinking I should just put the whole White Sox team on here. What in the World happened to that offense? Konerko, Dye, Crede, etc. have been awful. Like Konerko, Dye has picked up the slack lately -- but it still doesn't erase how disappoining he's been thus far.
This is a guy who put up MVP-numbers last year: .315 AVG, 44 HR, 120 RBI, .622 SLG %
His OBP % is is down over .100 points and his OPS has taken a massive tumble -- down almost an unfathomable .300 points. He is getting older (33) but that doesn't explain a dropoff like THAT.
I just don't know. Maybe 2006 was a complete fluke, but I'm not inclined to think so. I guess every guy is entitled to a massive slump from time to time.
--Outfielder: Bill Hall (MIL) .259 AVG, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 27 R, 56 K, .318 OBP %, .402 SLG %
I don't know if this guy should really be on this list, but he did hit 35 HR's in 2006 -- and that power is nowhere to be found right now. He scored 101 runs last year, and is nowhere close to that right now -- and that's for a team markedly better this year. His doubles are down, and so are all numbers (OBP %, OPS, SLG %, RBI's)
With Milwaukee struggling lately, they NEED Bill Hall to heat up so they can win the NL Central.
--Outfielder: Vernon Wells (TOR) .250 AVG, 5 HR, 30 RBI, .305 OBP %, .394 SLG %
What does a massive 2006 season (.303 AVG, 32 HR, 106 RBI, 40 doubles, 17 SB, .542 SLG %) get you? Well, a 7-year, $126 million contract. And how does Toronto get rewarded?
With those pedestrian-looking numbers just above. He was slightly overpayed -- but the guy can hit (trust me) and he all know he's a Gold Glover in Center. But why isn't Toronto all that great? Because he can't pitch. Spend your money on pitching people!
--Left-Handed Starter: Jeremy Sowers (CLE) 1-6, 6.93 ERA, 79 H & 10 HR in 62.1 IP, 1.57 WHIP
Before the season started, ESPN.com did a feature on Sowers -- basically saying how good he was last year and how good he could be this year. Oops.
As a 23-year-old rookie in 2006, Sowers started 14 games and had a 3.57 ERA. He was 7-4 with 2 complete game shut-outs. BUT (and there's always a but) he only struck out 38 in 88.1 innings. And strikeouts are always the best marker in determining how good a young pitcher will be. Yes, the "K" is overrated, but so were his 2 shutouts.
This guy still has a lot of talent, but I don't think he'll ever be all that special. But regardless, he will have to be special in AAA -- because that's where he is right now. I guess 10 HR allowed and as many walks as strikeouts will do that to you.
--Right-Handed Starter: Bronson Arroyo (CIN) 2-7, 4.98 ERA, 53 R in 85 IP, 1.51 WHIP, .286 BAA
An NL All-star in 2006 (14-11, 3.29 ERA, 184 K). But far from it in '07. His strikeouts are still there, but his walks are up in a big way -- and that has cost him. He walked 64 in 240 IP last year, but has already issued 32 free passes in 85 IP thus far. His ERA is up over a run and a half too boot. They don't have the best pitching staff in the World. They need him to revert to the 2006 version.
--Closer: Todd Jones (DET) 1-3, 5.55 ERA, 16 SV, 4 BSV, 29 H & 11 BB in 24.1 IP, 1.64 WHIP, .293 BAA
This team has a real legitimiate shot at winning the World Series. But that will be tough to do with a closer pitching like this. I don't care that he has 16 saves. He hasn't pitched well in many of the games he's pitched -- save or not. And he's blown back-to-back saves twice already. 3 losses, 5.55 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, .293 BAA is UGLY.
Where's Joel Zumaya? Oh ya, DL. Too bad, because he may have finally gotten his shot to close.
