Evaluating the Renteria Trade
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Published by Steve Caimano on November 3, 2007 02:28 pm under Trades, Tigers
The Detroit Tigers threw out the first pitch on the hot stove league season by trading two prospects to the Braves for shortstop Edgar Renteria. It’s tough to argue that this was a bad deal for the Tigers considering Renteria is coming off a 332/390/470 season. Edgar debuted in the majors at age 20 so it only seems like he should be 40 years old by now; he actually turns 32 next May so he certainly has productive years left in him. The problem I have is that this quote from the USA Today coverage of the trade pretty much sums up the general consensus: > > The Detroit Tigers filled their biggest need Monday when they acquired shortstop Edgar Renteria from the Atlanta Braves for two prospects.
The Tigers clearly did NOT fill their biggest need by acquiring Renteria. The lack of another bat was not what kept them out of the playoffs this year, and the only reason they needed a shortstop was the way they decided to fill their need for a first baseman.
The 2007 Tigers outscored their 2006 version by nearly half a run per game (5.48 vs 5.07). The 07 team ranked second in runs scored in the AL, the 06 team ranked fifth. In spite of all of the hue and cry over the impact of the injury to Gary Sheffield, the Tigers somehow overcame it to post a more productive offensive year than they did when they went to the World Series. No, another bat is clearly not the Tigers’ biggest need. Pitching is.
In 2006 the Tigers finished first in runs allowed per game at 4.17. In 2007 they finished ninth at 4.92. In other words, their offensive improvement was overwhelmed by the drop in production from their pitching staff. Only Justin Verlander and Kenny Rogers posted ERA-plus numbers greater than 100, which means the Tigers gave 119 starts to below league average pitchers. Making matters worse was the fact that the bullpen was also worse in 2007. A comparison of WXRL (Expected Wins over Replacement Level) between 06 and 07 shows that this year’s bullpen was about three wins worse than last (2006: 10.457 WXRL/2007: 7.65). Losing Joel Zumaya for an extended period clearly had much to do with this, but Todd Jones isn’t getting any younger either.
The Tigers finished second in runs scored this year despite the fact that one of their key offensive positions, first base, was manned by Sean Casey. Casey managed to finish 11th in VORP among AL first baseman, posting slash stats of 296/353/393 with a paltry four home runs. Sixty-seven percent of his plate appearances resulted in outs. Finding a competent bat at first base was clearly a priority for the Tigers going into the off-season and they addressed it immediately by announcing they were moving Carlos Guillen to that position.
The reason given for the move was that it would provide relief for Guillen’s legs which tend to send him to the bench for rest throughout each season. Having said that, Guillen did manage to appear in 151 games this year, and 153 the year before. Of those 304 total appearances, 277 were at shortstop. Clearly the Tigers and Guillen understand much better than I his ability to continue playing 130 to 140 games per year at shortstop, but the numbers don’t suggest that there was a requirement to move him across the diamond immediately.
If Guillen had posted his 2007 numbers (296/357/502) at first base instead of shortstop he would have ranked just about equal to Ryan Garko (289/359/483, both with 21 HR), and that certainly is an upgrade over Sean Casey. The problem is the Tigers offense was great DESPITE the presence of Casey. The Tigers didn’t need to upgrade their first base production, although doing so wouldn’t be that difficult, what they needed to do was replace Casey’s level of production. If they could meet that low bar they were still sitting on a heck of an offensive line-up, and they would have plenty of prospects and money left to address their real needs.
Couldn’t the Tigers have found a “patch” for first base that didn’t involve moving Guillen and opening up a hole at shortstop? Marcus Thames isn’t a guy whose name you want to be putting in the line-up every day, but the man did hit 18 home runs in 269 at bats this year. Ivan Rodriguez is clearly on his last legs, literally and figuratively, but perhaps you can milk another year or two from his bat by giving him less time behind the plate. Brad Wilkerson isn’t an all-star, but he can be a useful piece as a combination outfield/first base/pinch hitter kind of player and it probably won’t take a lot of money to sign him this year. Was there really no way to cobble together a multiple player platoon involving Thames, I Rod and a “replacement level” free agent with occasional cameo appearances by Guillen to rest his legs?
As I said at the top, it’s difficult to look at the Renteria trade as anything but a “win” for the Tigers in terms of the trade itself. My concerns are simply that I believe it addresses the wrong problem, and I think the problem it addresses was self-created from a lack of imagination on the part of the Tigers management team.
