Ellsbury versus Cabrera, the Debate Begins?

Just what you want to read, another lame article about the Red Sox and the Yankees. Well, maybe it is, and maybe not, depending on who's paying Jacoby Ellsbury (and uberagent Scott Boras) next season.

Today I had an inflammatory discussion concerning the merits of Melky Cabrera and Jacoby Ellsbury. My colleague, whom I'll call Bruce the Yankee fan, insisted that he never judges players by April or September events, or in Ellsbury's case October, and that in his opinion, Melky Cabrera, with his extended track record was a superior, proven player to Jacoby Ellsbury.

Not always right, but never in doubt, I argued that Ellsbury's performance, sample size admittedly small, came during a pennant race and World Series. Relying on data all too often, I noted that in a mere 33 games, Ellsbury had 6 win shares while the redoubtable Melk-Man has had two fairly full seasons with 13 apiece. So is Ellsbury just a weak-hitting, Joe Charbonneau wannabe, another flash in the pan?

Obviously, we're both biased, although I see Ellsbury as a .300 plus hitter (a lot of infield hits), .375 OBP guy, with 15 homer potential and forty steals almost a lock, plus a solid glove in center. Lacking pinstriped rose colored glasses, I see Melky as the guy who played Trot Nixon's line drive into an inside the park home run. In two plus season, Cabrera is a .275/.340/.388/.728 guy who comps with Shane Vitorino and a lot of guys nobody ever heard of, or from. Yup, the pinstripes devalue him in my eyes, raise him to the apotheosis of centerfielderhood among Yankee fans, and haven't moved the Twins.

I'm not saying that Ellsbury is a proven major leaguer, Fred Lynn, Dominic DiMaggio, or likely winner of next year's Rookie of the Year Award. Certainly Cabrera is a whole 13 months younger, and slammed a whole 15 round trippers in the past two years, playing in The Universe's Greatest Lineup.

But we're both biased? So Armchair GMs, do you deal Ellsbury straight up for Cabrera? I don't.

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HappyskinnyAll-American

728 days ago

Score 2

People can say I'm biased as a Red Sox fan, but why would I be biased if I thought the other player was better. Therefore, no I would not give up Ellsbury for Cabrera straight up.

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Anonymous Fanatic #1

728 days ago

Score 2

No way that you would trade Ellsbury for Cabrera. The reason is that with Cabrera you already know what the likely career trajectory is. With Ellsbury there an unknown upside that based on that 33 games may be far higher. There is something ineffable - maybe it is baseball IQ, or something else, but whenever he has hit leadoff the Red Sox were a far more exciting team. Ellsbury served notice on the basepaths when he scored from second on a passed ball in his first full game. And he has a history of that sort of thing - he broke up a playoff game for Pawtucket this year by scoring from first on a single in extra innings. I don't think you will see that, ever, from Melky. It was actually shocking how big the impact having him hit first made to the team. Until it is proven that this was an anomaly there is no way you would trade him for Cabrera.

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