East Coast Bias' NFC South Preview
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East Coast Bias' 8 week segment Countdown to Kickoff continues this week as we take a look at the NFC South. Last year we saw the New Orleans Saints, led by 1st year coach Sean Payton, make an improbable run to the NFC Championship game. Will they make it two consecutive trips to the playoffs? The Carolina Panthers were marred by injuries on the defensive and offensive lines last year, thus finishing with an exceptionally mediocre record of 8-8. The Atlanta Falcons underwent sweeping changes after bringing in Bobby Petrino to coach the team after yet another disappointing season. There are bigger fish to fry now that Mike Vick is being investigated by the Feds, making Joey Harrington the start QB. And finally there is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who are coming off their first defensive draft in years. Will the aging veterans ( Ronde Barber / Derrick Brooks) help the new kid on the block ( Gaines Adams) get adjusted and again make this a defense to truly fear? And more importantly, will this team score any points? That and more in our NFC South preview.
1. 
Carolina Panthers - Last Season 8-8
In what is a running theme after an 11-5 season, the Panthers once again decreased their win total and missed the playoffs. You can't really blame them for their mediocrity as they were decimated on the O-line last season which made running the ball hell for DeShaun Foster (897 yds rushing) and DeAngelo Williams (501 yds rushing). Also, Panthers training camp isn't without its own distraction either as often injured DT Kris Jenkins (3 sacks) is barking for a new contract. Let's however get into the now.
You can't really blame the running backs for their mediocrity as the O-line was decimated by injuries last season which made running the ball hell for DeShaun Foster (897 yds rushing) and DeAngelo Williams (501 yds rushing). Look for both of them to rebound this season and become a formidable 1-2 punch in the backfield.
Delhomme will have the ultimate weapon to throw to at WR as Steve Smith (1,166 yds receiving) comes back healthy this year but with the departure of Keyshawn Johnson, Keary Colbert (only 5 receptions last year)and rookie wide out Dwayne Jarrett will have to step up big time. The running game should definitely improve this year. DeAngelo Williams will be fighting DeShaun Foster for the start position but regardless of the outcome, the Panthers will have a good problem in the backfield.
Injuries last year to the offensive line really ruined the chemistry of the running game but with left tackle Travelle Wharton (6'4" 312lbs) healthy once again and Jordan Gross (6'4" 300lbs.) able to go back to his natural position of RT the line could be this year's surprise.
On the other side of the ball the Panthers have a really athletic line backing corps that include an oft-injured but extremely talented Dan Morgan (59 solo tackles in 2006), rookie OLB Jon Beason, and former safety in college Thomas Davis (90 tackles). Should Morgan get injured again however the Panthers have little depth at linebacker so Panthers fans should cross their fingers.
Julius Peppers (5.5 TFL) recorded a career high in sacks last season with 13.0 and barring any injuries he could record a new career high in 2007. The rest of the starter on the defensive line include pro bowl DE Mike Rucker (5.0 sacks), DT Kris Jenkins (41 tackles), and DT Maake Kemoeatu (26 tackles). It can't be said enough, especially in the NFL, if this group can stay healthy no one is going to want to face these guys.
In the secondary, the Panthers have impressive 2nd year RCB Richard Marshall (5 TFL) who accumulated 83 tackles and 3 Int's last season. Look for him to have more than 3 this year and become a top 10 CB. Chris Gamble (3 Int's) returns as the starting LCB and between him and Marshall the Panthers plan to be set at the corner position for years to come. The weakness the Panthers have would be at the safety position. Mike Minter (83 tackles) is an excellent field general but the general isn't getting younger. The 33 year old has lost a step and his size doesn't provide a lot help when he lines up inside the box against the run. First year starter Nate Salley is a wild card for the Panthers. He has ideal size for the FS position and under the tutelage of Mike Minter he could become something special for them.
Bottom Line: The Panthers just need to stay healthy which goes without saying really. I expect Jake Delhomme to bounce back from his sub par season and the running game with Foster and Williams should be dangerous behind a solid O-line. The defense is going to be scary good and if history is any indication of the Panthers success after an off year, sorry Saints fans, the Panthers take the South. Prediction 11-5 (5-1 vs. division)
2. 
New Orleans Saints - Last Season 10-6
A rejuvenated Deuce McAllister (4.3 ypc) rushed for 1,057 yds and scored 10 rushing touchdowns while AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Reggie Bush did everything. He caught passes out of the backfield (742 receiving yds), rushed the ball (6 rushing TD's), and returned punts (1 return TD. First year WR Marques Colston (70 Rec) was the biggest surprise however on the team. The 7th round pick was called too big to play WR, too slow to play WR, and was said to have an attitude problem. Colston went on to collect 1038 yds receiving and scored 8 touchdowns in 2007. It's a good thing Colston broke out as veteran receiver Joe Horn jumped ship and went to NFC South rival Atlanta.
With a solid offensive line being anchored by Bloomsburg grad Jahri Evans (6'4" 318lbs.) and former 13th overall pick Jammal Brown (6'6" 313lbs.), "Deuceeeeee" and Bush should have no problem finding a hole to run through. The big question for the Saints this year will be the evolution of their defense.
Last year the Saints ranked 13th in rushing defense, giving up almost 5 ypc in the NFC but did place 1st in pass defense. In a move to bolster their line backing corps the Saints agreed to terms with free agent MLB Brian Simmons (61 tackles). Roaming around with Simmons will be breakout OLB Scott Fujita (3.5 sacks) and team leader in tackles Scott Shanle (98 tackles).
Charles Grant (6.0 sacks) and Will Smith (10.5 sacks) will again be rushing the QB this year and should again help the secondary. The defensive tackles include two veterans, Hollis Thomas (3.5 sacks) and Brian Young (5.5 sacks) . Young did however break his foot in a workout so it will be interesting to see what transpires with him at the team's training camp. The secondary, while playing excellent last year, probably more or less overachieved due in part to an excellent pass rush.
New starting RCB Jason David (2 Int's) is undersized at 5'8" but many see a wealth of potential in him, plus he's a big upgrade over 34 year old Fred Thomas. Thirty one year old Mike McKenzie (2 Int's) isn't getting any younger however so I expect to see teams throw at him. The Saints however do have two young safeties who should be productive this year. 2nd year starter Ron Harper (25 solo tackles) could have a breakout year if his ACL has fully healed after he tore it during a game with the Buccaneers in week 5. Similar in size and weight, Josh Bullocks (72 tackles) should again be a solid SS and provide solid run support when asked to do so.
Bottom Line: The Saints go marching into the playoffs as long as Drew Brees is marching the offense down the field. The defense again will be the question mark this year but was certainly upgraded through free agency. Their defensive depth chart isn't impressive so Saints fans need to start praying their defense stays healthy. Prediction 10-6 (4-2 vs. Division)
3. 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Last Season 4-12
One of the coaches on the hot seat includes Tampa Bay coach Jon Gruden. After winning the Super Bowl in 2003 Gruden has only managed 1 winning season and no playoff wins.
Tampa Bay's biggest offseason acquisition was arguably QB Jeff Garcia (10 passing TD's). Garcia is coming off a one season stint in Philadelphia in which he led the Eagles to the playoffs after Donovan McNabb went down with yet another injury. Jeff threw for 1,309 yds and registered a 95.8 QB rating. That type of buzz caused teams to take notice when he hit the free agent market and Jon Gruden, who loves veteran QB's, snatched him up. Gruden has already publicly stated that Garcia would indeed be the starting quarterback, not that Bruce Gradkowski (1,661 passing yds) or Tim Rattay (88.2 QB rating) were really going to challenge Garcia for the starting position. A more interesting question however is what happens with Chris Simms? He is now healthy and was labeled as the franchise QB. Before being injured Simms had 2 consecutive games of 3 Int's and didn't look anything like the developing QB we saw in 2005. With training camp starting in the next few days I guess we'll see what happens.
Continuing on, the Bucs have a talented RB in Carnell "Cadillac" Williams (798 yds rushing) who struggled last year because of a non-existent passing game and inconsistent offensive line play. Teams kept stacking the box and all Williams could do was take the beating.
More running lanes should open for Williams now that the Bucs acquired veteran Luke Petitgout (6'6" and 308 lbs.) to solidify the left side while Jeremy Trueblood (6'8" and 315 lbs.) continues to develop as their RT.
The passing attack should see improvement with Jeff Garcia. There's no question Garcia will provide more relief for "Cadillac", especially with Joey Galloway at WR. The 35 year old speedster with provide the Bucs with a reliable deep threat. If Michael Clayton (356 receiving yds) ever returns to his rookie year form (80 catches / 1,193 receiving yds / 7 TD's) the Buccaneers could have a solid 1-2 punch at WR, but I wouldn't count on it.
Defensively the Buccaneers are still a solid group. Their linebacking corps include perennial pro bowler Derrick Brooks (121 tackles), free agent signee Cato June (142 tackles), and 1st year starter Barrett Rudd (37 solo tackles). While Brooks may have lost a step in his old age, he still is a difference maker at his position. It will be interesting to see how much the departure of Shelton Quarles (3rd on team in tackles) hurts this team.
The defensive line is made up of aging veterans. Simeon Rice is coming off an injury and many people are waiting to see how much he has left in the tank come training camp. Thirty three year old veteran Kevin Carter will start opposite Rice and should be productive. They did get younger at the position however as they drafted highly regarded DE Gaines Adams from Clemson. The interior includes the solid Chris Hovan (6.5 TFL) and Ellis Wyms (5.0 sacks). The Bucs also picked up former Kansas City first round bust Ryan Sims. It will be hard to run on these guys but with the exception of Wyms, Sims and Hovan don't provide any interior pass rush.
Finally, the Bucs secondary is led by pro bowl caliber CB Ronde Barber. Along with fellow corner Brian Kelly, who is coming off toe surgery, the Bucs have two quality corners that will make life hard for opposing receivers. Will Allen (77 tackles) and Jermaine Phillips (109 tackles) are both physical safties who are strong against the run but just average in coverage.
Bottom Line: This team lives and dies with Jeff Garcia. If he is any bit as effective as he was last year with the Eagles, the Buccaneers offense will obviously be better. For once the Bucs defense is not really all that frightening. The defense will show it's age but with field generals like Brooks and Barber it will be consistent. However, Jon Gruden may have to walk the plank at the end of the year. Prediction 6-10 (2-4 Vs. division)
4. 
Atlanta Falcons - Last Season 7-9 (This preview based on Mike Vick not starting at QB)
And to make matters worse, it was revealed today that RB Warrick Dunn (1,140 yds rushing) will undergo back surgery and miss 3-4 weeks of training camp. There is good news to report though! Jerious Norwood (633 yds rushing), based on his performance last year, looks ready to take over at RB. For the season he averaged a staggering 6.4 ypc and looks to having blazing speed. You fantasy nuts look out, we could have a sleeper here.
If you thought that the Falcons QB situation was troubling, let me get into the WR. Brian Finneran who sat out the 2006 season, will also be sitting out the 2007 season after getting re-constructive knee surgery done for the 2nd time in his 8 year career. Roddy White (506 receiving yds) and Michael Jenkins (7 receiving TD's) both underachieved last year while catching for Vick but with the addition of veteran WR Joe Horn (679 yds receiving), it could be huge for both of these young receivers development. Of course Alge Crumpler (8 receiving TD's) will still be around catching balls and more than likely will be the offense's most consistent performer.
Rookie OG Justin Blalock could see immediate playing time for an offensive line that gave up 47 sacks last year, with Vick at QB. With two aging tackles in Wayne Gandy and Todd Weiner, Joey Harrington could be seeing the ground a lot come this season.
The story of the Falcons gets better however when looking at their defense. John Abraham (4.0 sacks) was injured for half of the 2006 season thus crippling the Falcons pass rushing ability but it is a new season. If Abraham stays healthy and rookie DE Jamaal Anderson (6'6" 279 lbs.) lives up to his billing, the opposing teams QB's could be in for a world of hurt. The DT's for the Falcons include interior pas rusher Rod Coleman (6.0 sacks) and veteran big man Grady Jackson (13 TFL). Both balance each other out by making up for each one's weakness and should provide the Falcons with good run defense.
The Falcons, who seem to be marred by injuries at this point, will be without LB Demorrio Williams (92 tackles) probably for the beginning of the season. Starting at his position will be rookie and former USF standout Stephen Nicholas. Keith Brooking (95 solo tackles), the spark plug for this defense is returning for his 10th season with the Falcons and looks to continue his 6 season streak with 100+ tackles. Rounding out the Falcons linebackers will be solid 3rd year starter Michael Boley (87 tackles).
DeAngelo Hall (4 Int's) will lead the secondary into the 2007 season, but he doesn't have much help. Everything hinges on how 2006 second round draft pick FS Jimmy Williams (24 tackles) improves and how 2007 second round pick CB Chris Houston performs. Williams at 6'2" 210lbs is a man at FS and could have a breakout year. Twelve year veteran Lawyer Milloy (98 tackles) may be able to still help in run defense but at 33 he has lost a couple steps and could prove to a huge liability in deep coverage.
Bottom Line: With current QB Joey Harrington at the helm I can't see too much improvement for the offense. Defensively the front 7 is a solid group full of veterans who can play consistently week in and week out, however, the secondary is a HUGE question mark. It will certainly be interesting to see what Bobby Petrino does and whether he can inject some life into this team. Vick carried this team on his shoulders last year though and without him the Falcons end up in the cellar. Prediction 5-11 (1-5 vs. division)
Thanks for reading and keep a look out next week when East Coast Bias previews the NFC West!
