Early Look at the Hot Stove
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by Audino237
This is a post I made yesterday that got a handful of comments, but for some reason did not show up on the homepage after 25-30 minutes.
Yes, the playoffs are just beginning (go Yanks!), but for many teams, they are already looking into the offseason. This includes the Giants telling Barry Bonds they are through, the Braves letting go of Andruw Jones, and many teams with free agents that they cannot afford or just do not fit into the team's plans. Keep in mind that many free agents who play the same position may show up as fits for the same teams (see Andruw Jones and Torii Hunter) but obviously depend on what other moves the team makes. I will also speculate as to what the contract will be and how they fit into teams' plans. First off, let's look at some contracts that agents will look at as guides for their clients that have taken place in the last few years:
Pitchers:
Roy Oswalt: 5 years, $73 million, $14.6 million/year
Barry Zito: 7 years, $126 million, $18 million/year
Carlos Zambrano: 5 years, $91.5 million (player option for 6th year, so we'll call it 6 years, $111 million, $18.5M/year)
Gil Meche: 5 years, $55 million, $11 million/year
Jason Schmidt: 3 years, $47 million, $15.67 million/year
B.J. Ryan: 5 years, $47 million, $9.4 million/year
Eric Gagne: 1 year, $6 million
Position Players:
Alfonso Soriano: 8 years, $136 million, $17 million/year
Carlos Lee: 6 years, $100 million, $16.67 million/year
Ichiro Suzuki: 5 years, $90 million, $18 million/year
Aramis Ramirez: 5 years, $75 million, $15 million/year
Michael Young: 5 years, $80 million, $16 million/year
Travis Hafner: 4 years, $57 million, $14.25 million/year
Okay, after seeing some of those numbers for the bigger contracts (I left out smaller ones that are below market value like Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes and David Wright. I particularly find those interesting because all 3 are recognized as bright, young stars in big-money cities that love their teams. Especially in the National League, players like J-Roll and Reyes are valued even higher because they can steal bases and switch-hit (thus making it harder to strategize against them). But that's for another post. Here are some thoughts as to what will happen this offseason.
Jorge Posada: A free agent to be who is enjoying his greatest year as a pro. The way he kept the young pitchers in games early in the year should also not go unnoticed. If Joe Torre stays, then I believe he will. However, he will have no shortage of suitors on the open market. He could command a 3 year contract worth $45 million.
Potential suitors: New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, Houston Astros, Detroit Tigers, Chicago Cubs
Ivan Rodriguez: Pudge has a $13 million option for 2008 and the Tigers, who still have a very good collection of players, will most likely re-sign him. They may go for a younger, cheaper catcher like Yorvit Torrealba or Michael Barrett, but my money is Pudge back in Detroit. If his option were to be declined, he may command Posada-like money, possibly 3 years at $13-14 million a year.
Potential Suitors: Detroit Tigers, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants
Adam Dunn: The Reds hold a $13 million option for 2008 with their premiere slugger, and it will probably be exercised. The big lefty has one of, if not the greatest, power stroke in the game, but also has one of the highest K-totals year in, year out. However, some power-hungry team would overspend for his services. In a perfect world, an AL team would put him at DH, as he is a sub-par fielder. Dunn, still only 28, could command a hefty sum to the tune of 5 years and $85 million ($17M a year). The Padres, in desparate need of a power bat, would love to add him to a lineup that includes Adrian Gonzalez and Brian Giles (they'd need a righty bat to complement them however). Dunn would play left field. The Halos would love to bat him behind Vlad Guerrero.
Potential Suitors: Cincinnati Reds, San Diego Padres, LA Angels of Anaheim, Los Angeles Dodgers
Luis Castillo: The speedy, switch-hitting 2B is a free agent after being traded from the Twins to the Mets midseason. He performed well, and will probably merit a return trip to Queens and fit nicely behind Jose Reyes. The White Sox, though they like Danny Richar, might take a chance, as would the Cardinals, who with a new GM will want to get some new, signature players. The Brew Crew is looking for some veteran stability and some speed on the bases to run in front of Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, and J.J. Hardy. If the Padres don't bring back Marcus Giles, they could be a player, but probably will opt for a player with more pop. Someone will get a bargain in Castillo, possibly a 2 year deal worth $16M.
Potential Suitors: New York Mets, Chicago White Sox, Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals
Mike Lowell: The Red Sox 3B was probably the MVP of the team when sluggers J.D. Drew, David Ortiz, and Manny Ramirez weren't at their best. He batted .324, belted 21 homers and drove in 120 runs. He also is probably in line for a Gold Glove. It's hard to imagine the Sox bringing Lowell back, but stranger things have happened. He is already 34 years old and, despite stellar defense, probably won't be able to play out the length of his next contract at 3rd, so he will probably be a first basemen or DH in 3 or 4 years. If A-Rod opts out (below), the Yankees will certainly come a-knockin' at their former farm-hand's front door. Like I said before, the Angels are always looking for a big-bopper. In an effort to make the offense even stronger, the Phillies may make an offer, and if the price is right, Lowell could have a spot in the middle of San Diego's order (though that would require them to move Kevin Kouzmanoff to another team or be willing to leave him on the bench; fat chance). He could be a good piece to a young, emerging team like Kansas City, where he would shift to 1B and Billy Butler would be a full-time DH with Mike Sweeney gone. Lowell might make a surprising amount of money, possibly a 4 year deal worth $12 million annually.
Potential Suitors: Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Kansas City Royals, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres
Alex Rodriguez: I don't even feel like talking about this, as there has been so much discussion and arguing about what he will do. If he opts out, obviously, the bidding will be insane. Personally, I don't see the Yankees being outbid for his services (although they say that they won't involve themselves in a bidding war, but I'm confident that Cash will back off that stance). He has the ability to play 3B or short with Gold Glove results. It's no secret the year he has had, and that Scott Boras is his agent. His contract will be even more staggering then what people think, I believe. If i had to make a predicition, I think he'll get 10 years and $325-330 million. That's absurd.
Potential Suitors: New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants
Barry Bonds: Another larger-then-life name. Hard to gauge what the interest will be with him. Last year, there was virtually none. However, the Giants HAVE TO move on, and they have said they will do so. He will have to be a DH, there's no question about that. He still can produce, as evidenced by his .480 OBP. What team couldn't use that from their DH spot? The Angels seem like a match made in heaven, but they have a model franchise with a young, growing fan base and are hesitant to spoil that with a bad signing. Bonds is what the Angels crave. The Orioles, always outdone by the Yanks, Sox, and most recently the Jays, are going to do something splashy. I keep telling everyone that they will make a blockbuster move or two, and this could be it. If he lowers his contract expectations, the A's might make a move. The Rangers had lukewarm interest last year, but opted for Sammy Sosa. They seem to be going very young and building towards 2009. I also see a fit in Seattle, where he could DH and bat between Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson (if he can straighten out), among other solid offensive players. if I had to guess, he will recieve a one-year deal worth $10 million.
Potential Suitors: Los Angeles Angels, Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, Oakland Athletics
Torii Hunter: The Twins' centerfielder heads the strongest class of position players. He is 32 years old and coming off of a spectacular year. He has gained power and also hit for average. The Giants may look to him for some star power, and the Padres may look to replace Mike Cameron with Hunter's righty bat, though he might be a little pricey for Kevin Towers and the Pads. Much has been said about the ChiSox bringing in their nemesis, which is extremely possible. He could opt for his hometown Rangers, and don't forget about those O's sneaking in and offering a big deal. Ichiro's deal this season and Vernon Wells' deal last year are good guidelines, so I predict that Hunter will reach a deal in the neighbordhood of 5 years and $80 million.
Potential Suitors: Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants
Andruw Jones: The career-long Braves run in the ATL is over after all these years. He hit .222 with 26 homers and 94 RBIs this year, which are good power numbers. However, in 2005 and 2006 he put up near MVP numbers and was expected to get a $20 million/annually deal, which he won't approach. He is one of the best defenders of the last 50 years, patrolling Turner Field like very few could. He is only 31, so he will still get a good, long deal and because of his distinguished career, get somewhat of a pass for this down year. I think that the Orioles are a natural fit. The Rangers may also come into play. He will probably be too expensive for the Padres who are in desparate need of a CF. The Giants may target him for his marquee name to replace Bonds. A dark horse is the Rockies, who have some money to spend (before they re-sign Holliday, Corpas, and Francis), and, depending on how far they get in the playoffs this year, may splurge for Jones or Rowand. If they have a good showing in the NLCS (if they can make it) I believe they will make a big move like this in an attempt to get them to the next level. Jones' contract is another good topic of debate, but I would predict he gets a 6 year pact for about $100M ($16.67M a year). That may seem pricy, but if you look at the body of work he has put together, it really isn't.
Potential Suitors: Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies, Texas Rangers
I easily could talk about Jose Guillen, Juan Uribe, Bobby Abreu, Omar Vizquel, and Aaron Rowand, but I didn't realize how long this would be! On to pitchers...
Bartolo Colon: It will be interesting to see how teams treat Bartolo Colon, the 2005 Cy Young Winner. He still has nasty stuff, that is clear, but has had terrible injury trouble. He's coming off a big contract, so he won't be worried about money. I think that he will sign a one-year deal in hopes of re-gaining his old form, and then sign a big, long term deal (3 years). It's hard to believe that he is already 35 years old, so he may go for the team that offers him the most money. I doubt the Angels, with more prospects then they know what to do with, and a wallet, will re-up with him. Many teams that he would seem to be a good fit with (Blue Jays, Indians) have deep, young rotations and probably would not seriously offer him. Omar Minaya, always the gambling man, might take the chance, but i think a team willing to take a short-term risk will offer him and hope he is motivated for one last hoorah in coming years with a contender, and then let him walk or possibly trad ehim at the deadline. He will probably take a one year deal with a player option for 2009, with this year's guaranteed money set at about $7 million with the chance to earn $1.5-2.5M more in incentives).
Possible Suitors: Seattle Mariners, St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals, Cincinnati Reds
Freddy Garcia: He was injured most of the year, but has been a workhorse the last few years and has always been like that. The Phillies, who have zero rotational depth, will probably make every effort to get him back. he's only 32, so he has a few years ahead of him. He will probably go to a contender looking for a number 4 starter in hopes he gets back to top of the line #2 form. I wouldn't be surprised if the Sox let Curt Schilling leave and go after Garcia. If the price isn't ridiculous, the Rockies might take a number, as will the Mariners who always liked him. Who knows what the Cardinals want these days, but they need pitching in the worst way. The Orioles will up the bidding, but won't break the bank. Don't discount the Tigers, who are oh-so-close to championship level. Expect Garcia to get a 2 year deal with a 3rd year player option for about $11.5-13M a year.
Potential Suitors: Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers
Tom Glavine: He has a player option, but last week's performance against the Marlins left a bad taste in his mouth and he probably wants to return home. Unfortunately, the Mets probably won't want him back, but he had a solid year. He will probably sign a one year deal with his hometown Braves, or maybe start retirement early and sign with the Padres. For some reason, I see him in a Nats jersey, but there's absolutely no argument for it. Hell, I'll put it anyway. He'll probably sign a one year deal for $8M, though he's worth more then that.
Potential Suitors: Atlanta Braves, Washington Nationals, New York Mets
Andy Pettite: Pettite was the one constant on the pitching side of the team that kept the Yankees in contention all year. He came up big when he had to. He has a $16M option for 2008, and has repeatedly said he will either pitch for the Yankees in 2008 or retire. He is a soldier who is loyal to the Yankees (he was not wanted back in 2004) and I believe he speaks the truth. He'd be the best starter on the market and could get insane money, but he will exercise his option. He's coming back to the Bronx.
Curt Schilling- He is 41 years old, but everyone knows about his fire and work ethic. He desparately wants to return, but it is unclear if Boston wants him back. He mentioned that he either wants to play one more year in Boston or play in Tampa Bay to tutor young pitchers. I think San Francisco would be a good fit, where he would still be a good NL pitcher, and he good tutor young guns Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, and Noah Lowry, and maybe teach Barry Zito a thing or two. I believe a Phillies-redux isn't out of the realm of possibility, either. A one year deal for about $12M seems about right.
Potential suitors: San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Mariano Rivera: The best closer in baseball history and the key to the Yankees run of dominance the last 12 years. He wants to pitch in the new stadium in 2009, that's no secret. Mo means the world to the organization and the fans, and I think he will stay. It's nearly impossible for me to think about him even discussing contract money with another team, it's just not right. The Yankees will offer him a 2 year, $24 million deal before he even has the chance to talk to anyone. However, if for some reason he wants a 3 year deal with no home-town discount, a team like the Indians or Orioles would jump at the chance to get a lockdown closer.
Potential suitors: New York Yankees, Cleveland Indians, Baltimore Orioles, Philadelphia Phillies
Francisco Cordero: The Brewers' closer, all of 33 years old, still touches the mid-90's on the gun, is excitable as ever, and posted a franchise-best 44 saves in 2007. He will be the most sought-after pitcher on the market, start or reliever. There will be no shortage of teams offering huge money at him, as he does not come with much injury risk. Some teams that will heavily pursue him (the Brewers probably can't afford him due to shortage of relievers on the market) include the Indians, Phillies, Cubs, and Giants. Cordero might get the biggest contract ever for a reliever. Someone will overpay and give him a 5 year deal worth roughly $52 million.
Potential suitors: Cleveland Indians, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies
Eric Gagne: Yet another hard one to gauge. This begoggled reliever was having a stellar if not spectacular year in Texas. When the Red Sox acquired him at the deadline, he was believed to be the one to punch the team's ticket to a title. Instead of strengthening the league's best pen, he has weakened it, blowing numerous games and giving up many runs. The team that signs him will put him at closer, as they will be scared to put him in a set-up position like Boston did. He seems to be over his injuries, and is only 32. Gagne might want a one year deal to redeem himself or go for security. I believe he will take the latter, and agree to a 3 year deal worth $20 million.
Potential Suitors: Cleveland Indians, Texas Rangers, Milwaukee Brewers
Wow, that took so long. There was about 10 guys I wanted to cover but i just don't have it in me. Please reward me for writing all of this by commenting me or sending me e-mails at audinoa2@union.edu. Give me ideas for more posts.
