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Early-Season MVP by WPA

13
Vote

by user Tylersalt

Finally, I've found a good way to quantitatively define "valuable" in Most Valuable Player in a way that should end arguments on the matter... just in time to start another firestorm. Here are the top five hitters in each league by Win Probability Added.

American League:

  1. Alex Rodriguez (2.05)
  2. Magglio Ordonez (1.91)
  3. Grady Sizemore (1.87)
  4. Vladimir Guerrero (1.70)
  5. Placido Polanco (1.65)

National League:

  1. Barry Bonds (2.18)
  2. Todd Helton (1.77)
  3. Kelly Johnson (1.58)
  4. Lance Berkman (1.44)
  5. Adrian Gonzalez (1.39)

So there you have it. By definition, Bonds and A-Rod have been more valuable to their teams than any other hitters (that qualify for the batting title) in baseball. If you want to extend it to pitchers as well, Rafael Soriano (1.79), Jason Marquis (1.72), Tim Hudson (1.59), and Jake Peavy/Francisco Cordero (1.51) would be 2-5 in the NL behind Bonds, but the AL wouldn't change (the highest WPA for a pitcher in the AL is James Shields at 1.59 -- in fact, the two highest WPAs for pitchers are both Tampa Bay Devil Rays).


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Davis21wylieMVP
934 days ago
Score 1+-
Long live WPA!!
Permalink | Reply
JuTMSY4Legend
934 days ago
Score 1+-
But, like you said, It's not a predictor.

More importantly, In order to provide "Clutch" hits your team needs to put you in said situation. In order to get a save, you need a save situation...in order to get a clutch hit with men on, men need to get on...in order to win any type of game, pitching needs to be good, or hitting needs to be better.

I'm just ranting about how much a hate sabermetrics really...for the love of the game...ha

Good article

Any idea why Bonds is so high (besides the obivous)...his lineup sucks and you can really attribute a lot of his "WPA" to solid pitching...IMO
Permalink | Reply
Davis21wylieMVP
934 days ago
Score 0+-
WPA is kind of an "anti-sabermetric" sabermetric stat. For years, they went on and on about how there was no such thing as clutch, that RBI/Runs are too dependent on situations and your teammates, etc... And now they debut WPA, the ultimate situation-dependent, "clutchy" stat! So all I can say, really, is to remember the fundamental difference between value and ability. WPA measures real, tangible value to a team in wins, but has no predictive power b/c it's so dependent on external factors. Runs Created, OPS, etc. measure hitting ability, which is predictive, but say nothing of how many real wins a player added.
Permalink
TylersaltAll-Star
934 days ago
Score 0+-
Well, Bonds has been a big reason that the Giants have been any good at all. Without him, I bet they would be pathetically bad.
Permalink
TylersaltAll-Star
934 days ago
Score 0+-
that's the thing, you can't attribute Bonds' WPA to the Giants' pitching -- it's all him. WPA really averages out situations in the end, I feel.
Permalink
KelsdadAll-Star
934 days ago
Score 0+-
I second that
Permalink
JuTMSY4Legend
934 days ago
Score 0+-
My point was..and maybe i'm misinterpreting WPA, that bonds would never been in a "clutch" situation had the staff not been pitching well...Baseball is a team game...just like people being on base...
Permalink
TylersaltAll-Star
934 days ago
Score 0+-
Sure, WPA is not predictive, but that's why Placido Polanco isn't going to be in the MVP discussion at the end of the season. In MVP discussions, we're always looking backwards to try to determine who has been the most valuable over the course of the season.
Permalink | Reply
JuTMSY4Legend
934 days ago
Score 0+-
BTW, Ugueth Urbina is still in Jail...and I still loathe Ed Wade...
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
934 days ago
Score 0+-
Now that we've got this MVP thing figured out, screw baseball and get to football season, I guess...??
Permalink | Reply
False ProphetAll-Star
934 days ago
Score 0+-
nah, you see ManRays, the NFL has the longest season of any league in the World. There is no down time, ever. Every day could be the day that makes you team a Super Bowl champ, or makes you a lock for a top 5 draft pick
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