Eagles Preview
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by Silencer76
Now, I have been working on season previews for most of the last couple weeks, with a lot of detail, statistical information, and reasoning why I feel teams will perform the way I project them. Whether they do or not, time will tell. I have cross posted a couple of my previews here, 15 have been done and posted on my blog Juuust a bit Outside, and I plan to have a couple more done today, with the goal still being finishing all 32 teams by kickoff next Thursday. So, if you are interested to see what I think of your team, if you want to offer input from a fan perspective, or if you want to argue, feel free to stop by, see what I have to say, and let me know.
I skipped Jacksonville and Indianapolis this morning in the AFC to get to the NFC East, because the Eagles and Cowboys are always a hot topic of conversation. The Eagles preview is here today, and I will try to get Dallas done this afternoon or evening for tomorrow. So here we go...enjoy it.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (10-6 in 2006, lost 27-24 to New Orleans in NFC Divisional Round): The Philadelphia Eagles were a roller coaster team in 2006, winning 4 of their first five games, only to lose 5 of their next six to fall to 5-6, and rebound with five consecutive wins to end the season. The late surge allowed them to gain home field advantage for the first round by winning the NFC East. The club survived the loss of Donovan McNabb last year, but will need him close to, if not, 100 percent to return to their ultimate destination.
KEY ADDITIONS: QB Kelly Holcomb (trade, Buffalo), LB Takeo Spikes (trade, Buffalo), WR Kevin Curtis (FA, St. Louis), DT Ian Scott (FA, Chicago), DT Monte Reagor (FA, Indianapolis), QB Kevin Kolb (2nd round of draft, Houston), DE Victor Abiamiri (2nd round, Notre Dame), RB Tony Hunt (3rd round, Penn State), LB Stewart Bradley (3rd round, Nebraska), CB C.J. Gaddis (5th round pick, Clemson), TE Brent Celek (5th round pick, Cincinnati), CB Rashad Barksdale (6th round pick, Albany), FB Nate Ilaoa (7th round, Hawaii)
KEY DEFECTIONS: QB Jeff Garcia (FA, Tampa Bay), WR Donte' Stallworth (FA, New England), DT Darwin Walker (trade, Buffalo, later dealt to Chicago), DT Sam Rayburn (FA, San Francisco), LB Dhani Jones (FA, New Orleans), LB Shawn Barber (FA, Houston), S Michael Lewis (FA, San Francisco), CB Roderick Hood (FA, Arizona), LB Jeremiah Trotter (released), RB Reno Mahe (released), WR Bethel Johnson (released)
KEY GAMES: September 9 at Green Bay, September 30 at New York Giants, October 21 vs Chicago, December 16 at Dallas, December 23 at New Orleans
OFFENSE: Even with McNabb out after November 19th, the Eagles offense was high flying. They were second in the league in total yards with 6293, 4th in passing yards with 4309, 3rd in yards per pass attempt at 7.92 ypa, had the most TD passes (31), and the second fewest INT (9) in 2006. The running game was effective too, amassing 1984 yards, good for 11th in the league, with the fifth best yard per carry average of 4.77 yards a crack. The team was the sixth best scoring club in the league, averaging 24.9 points a contest, as they were held under 20 points just twice in 2006.
The quarterback duties fall back to Donovan McNabb. McNabb, who tore his ACL last November, rehabbed, came back ahead of schedule, and is poised to lead the Eagles offense to a stellar 2007 campaign. Before going down, McNabb had connected on 57 percent of his throws for 2647 yards, 18 TD passes and only 6 INT. He had also been effective scrambling, picking up 212 yards on 35 runs, and scoring three times. When McNabb went down, the now departed Jeff Garcia (61.7 % completion rate, 1309 yards, 10 TD, 2 INT) stepped in and the club ripped off the five wins to end the season. A.J. Feeley started the season finale for Philly, and promptly went 22 of 33 for 321 yards and 3 TDs. With McNabb healthy and Garcia gone, Feeley steps into the backup role, and Kelly Holcomb will battle with 2nd round pick Kevin Kolb for the #3 job.
The Eagles running game mainly goes through one man, #36 Brian Westbrook. Westbrook was not selected for the Pro Bowl in 2006, though he easily could have been. He totaled 1217 on 240 carries, for a 5.1 yard average, and found the end zone seven times. He was also a dangerous outlet valve from the backfield, grabbing a team leading 77 receptions for another 699 yards and four more scores. He needs to stay healthy, as the backups are oft-injured Correll Buckhalter (83, 345, 2 and 24 rec, 256, 1), who missed all of 2004 and 2005, and 3rd round pick Tony Hunt. Ryan Moats (22, 69, 0) is a long shot option at best.
The wide receiver corps will be led by third year man Reggie Brown, who has basically been handed the keys to the number one job with the decision to let Stallworth go via free agency. Brown led all returning Eagle receivers with 46 receptions for 816 yards and 8 TDs. He should end up with close to 1100 or 1200 yards if he continues to progress. Former Ram Kevin Curtis (40 grabs, 479 yards, 4 TD as the #3 option for Marc Bulger) will be a welcome addition on the other side and should see a good number of balls. Curtis has speed and a great set of hands, and is also not afraid to go over the middle to make the tough grab. Hank Baskett (22, 464, 2) has a ton of size (6'4, 220) and wheels (his two TDs were from 89 and 85 yards, making him just the second rookie to have two receptions for TDs from 85+ yards in his rookie season, Billy Howton for Green Bay in 1952 the other.) Baskett will see a lot of time as the third WR in the Eagles formations. Greg Lewis (24, 348, 2), Bill Sampy (practice squad in 06), and Jason Avant (7, 68, 1) will all look to be the #4 man in four WR sets. L.J. Smith (50, 611, 5) and Matt Schobel (14, 214, 2) gives McNabb a pair of big targets over the middle, while Brent Celek will be the #3 TE.
DEFENSE: The Eagles admittedly had their struggles on this side of the ball, finishing 20th in total yards allowed (5549), yet only 15th in points allowed (20.5 ppg). The pass defense was solid, finishing 9th in pass yards allowed (3367), 4th in yards per attempt (6.41), 8th in TD passes allowed (17), and 8th in INT (19.) They were sliced via the run game, finishing 25th in rushing attempts faced (489, average of 30.5 a game), 26th in rushing yards allowed (2182, 136.4 yards per), and 24th in yard per carry average (4.46 ypc.)
Philadelphia needs to generate more of a pass rush than they did in 2006, when they registered just 40 sacks. A big key to that will be the health of Jevon Kearse. Kearse played in just two games in 2006, before being sidelined with yet another injury. Kearse racked up 3.5 sacks, 4 tackles, 1 pass defense and a forced fumble in those two contests before going down. More importantly, when he played in those two games, the Eagles had 13 sacks. In the 14 games without him, they recorded just 27. If Kearse returns to his previous form, Eagles fans will see a lot more of opposing QBs on their back. Trent Cole had a stellar season in 2006, and was a pleasant surprise for Philadelphia fans. He logged 62 tackles, a team leading 8 sacks, 3 pass knockdowns, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery and a pick in his second year. With Cole and Kearse, you could easily see double digit sacks from both ends. Darren Howard (35 tackles, 5 sacks, 2 FF, 1 FR), Juqua Thomas (26 tackles, 6 sacks, FF) and 2nd round pick Victor Abiamiri add quality depth at the end spots. Mike Patterson (52 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 3 FR) and Broderick Bunkley (9 tackles), both former first round picks, will start at defensive tackle. Veterans Ian Scott (31 tackles for CHI in 2006), LaJuan Ramsey (5 tackles, INT) and Montae Reagor (11 tackles, 1 sack in an injury shortened campaign in IND) add depth.
The linebacking corps is in a state of flux. Gone are Jeremiah Trotter, Shawn Barber and Dhani Jones have all departed from the Eagles. It will be a complete overhaul in this part of the Jim Johnson defense. Chris Gocong, who missed all of 2006 with a neck injury, is expected to start at strong side linebacker for the defense. Second year man Omar Gaither (64 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT, 3 PD) will take Trotter's spot in the middle. The veteran of the trio will be weak side backer Takeo Spikes. Spikes put up 76 tackles and 1 sack in 12 games for the Bills last season. He has been banged up a bit the past two seasons, tearing an Achilles in 2005 and missing four games last season with a hamstring strain. He will be the key to the Eagles linebackers, as there is not much experience in the group. Third round pick Stewart Bradley will be in the mix as a backup, as will displaced starter Matt McCoy (66 tackles, 2 sacks) who, from what sources have said, was a disappointment last season. Dedrick Roper is the backup to Gaither. He had 11 tackles on special teams last season, but seemed to get hurt every other week down the stretch.
The secondary is where the Eagles are at their strongest. They return two Pro Bowlers in corner Lito Sheppard and safety Brian Dawkins. Sheppard was pretty much a shutdown corner in 2006, making 30 tackles, intercepting 6 passes, breaking up 19 others, and recovering a fumble. Expect another solid season from him in 2007. Sheldon Brown, best known for his bone jarring hit on Reggie Bush last season, will start at right corner. He tallied 52 tackles, 1 INT and 11 breakups as teams tended to throw his way more than Sheppard's. Joselio Hanson (35 tackles, 13 pass breakups) is a quality nickel back who can step into a starting role should an injury occur. William James (7 tackles, 2 PD in 3 games), Nick Graham, Dustin Fox, along with Rashad Barksdale, are battling for the last spots. All Pro Brian Dawkins is back for another year at free safety, ready to hit anything that moves. The concern with Dawkins is if he has lost a step. He rung up 98 tackles, 1 sack, 4 interceptions, 14 pass breakups and a team leading five forced fumbles. At 34, anything he loses in speed he makes up for in grit, determination, and savvy. Rookie C.J. Gaddis backs him up. Sean Considine is the current starter at strong safety after putting up 86 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT, 5 pass breakups, 1 forced fumble and two fumble recoveries, but, if he is shaky, look for special teams headhunter Quentin Mikell (42 tackles, FF) to step in and take the job.
SPECIAL TEAMS: The Eagles have a solid, if unspectacular group. David Akers does the kicking, as he is back for his ninth year kicking for Philadelphia. Akers's accuracy has been down the last two seasons, though on limited attempts (18 of 23, 78.3 percent in 2006, 16 of 22, 72.7 percent in 2005) after hitting at least 82.8 percent of his kicks each of his first six seasons. He was fairly solid (6 of 8) from the 40 to 49 yard range, but converted just three of five from 30 to 39 yards and also missed one from 20 to 29. Eagles fans will expect a return to par for Akers in 2007.
Dirk Johnson is the punter again, after averaging 42.6 yards per punt on 78 efforts last season, dropping 21 inside the opposing 20 yard line. He was fairly consistent in his length, as his longest boot was just 60 yards. His net average was mediocre, however, at just 34.9 yards per kick.
The kick return game has a new face this year in former Colorado Buffalo, and Olympic skier, Jeremy Bloom. Bloom has not played in a meaningful football game since 2003, and one has to wonder how effective he will be. Buckhalter and Moats are the other options on kickoffs, while J.J. Outlaw would be the secondary option on punt returns, lest Andy Reid lose his mind and put Westbrook back there.
The kick coverage teams are a bit shaky. They allowed 23.2 yards per kickoff return a season ago, and 9.3 yards per punt return, including one for a 90 yard score. A little fine tuning here and they will be just fine.
OUTLOOK: The Eagles start the season with four very winnable games (@ GB, vs. Washington, vs. Detroit, @ NYG) before the bye week. If they win at least three of those first four, they will be in sound shape, with two weeks to prepare for the Bears. McNabb being healthy, Brown developing into a true #1 WR, Kearse returning to form and the youth in the linebacking unit are the key things to watch for. If they all come to fruition, Philadelphia wins 11 games and the NFC East.
1) Dhani Jones wasn't a key defection (You're listing all of them...but he was down right awful last year) & did Bethel Johnson land in Houston ( I have no idea)
2) Ryan Moats will spend another year in a eagles uniform...but really only by luck (or lack there of). He broke his leg (pretty bad too) in the 1st pre-season game and will most likely go on IR this year.
3) Jason Avant is making a serious push on both Baskett and Lewis for the #3 receiver...he looked terrific last night
4) I'm glad someone mentioned Jevon Kearse and that odd sack statistic. Honestly, the eagles D-ends include Kearse, Howard, Trent Cole, a quietly good Juqua Thomas and late 2nd rounder Abiamiri...that's reaaaaaaeeeaaaeeeaaaallllyyyy (Like John C McGinley) good...
5) The pass rush looked great last night...and the run defense looked more effective.
6) Sav Rocca is making a push for the punting job (I don't blame you for missing it)..and he looked outstanding last night...he can clearly kick it further than Johnson, but he struggles in corner kicks and isn;t has consistant in avoiding shanks
The Eagles toughest games are @ NE and @ NO...the fortunately get Chicago and seattle at home...they will most likely go 1-3 in those games...but 2-2 or 3-1 is not outlandish.
Overall, this is a good preview...very unbiased and intelligent