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ESPN's "Experts'" Final Four Predictions

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by user Roblefko

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I was just looking at ESPN.com and i came across this article, (which is still on the NCAA tournament main page, by the way). In summary, ESPN's experts (Andy Katz, Pat Forde, Jay Bilas, Fran Fraschilla, Doug Gottlieb, and Dick Vitale) made their predictions for the the Final Four along with two possible upsets in the first round. In summary, out of the 6 experts' (im not counting the ESPN editor's picks) 24 final four teams (4 for each expert), they got a total of 2 correct picks (Dick Vitale picked UCLA and Doug Gottlieb picked Florida). Heck, 5 of the 6 picked Kansas, a team that got knocked out in the first round, to make the Final Four. Out of their 12 upset picks, they got 3 right (2 experts picked UWM over Oklahoma and one picked Montana over Nevada. In fact, they predicted West Virginia, Washington, and Wichita State to be upset in the first round, and yet all 3 made the Sweet 16. Why do we listen to them, watch their shows, or read their articles. Do they really have any idea what they are talking about at all?


Date

Mon 03/27/06, 11:00 am EST <pageTools></pageTools>

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PeanMajor Leaguer
1343 days ago
Score 2+-
In a few years, people will be making fun of ArmchairGM's expert picks
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RoblefkoLegend
1343 days ago
Score 0+-
yeah, but on what website/media outlet will they be making fun of those picks on??? hmmm..
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Anonymous Fanatic #1
1343 days ago
Score 0+-
we are smarter than sports experts
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MetsJetsDevilsDraft Pick
1343 days ago
Score 0+-
because of those jerks I picked Kansas to lose in the finals. At the same time you have admit that this year's final 4 is like no other. Indeed, the last time there were ZERO #1 seeds was 1980. In my own pool only 3 people have a chance to actually win the final game. I think it is just that kind of year.
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EnyboDiv-I Stud
1343 days ago
Score 0+-
W elsiten to them becasue they are on ESPN. You would listen to George Bush's final 4 picks if he was a regualr analyst for ESPN.
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Awrigh01All-Star
1343 days ago
Score 0+-
"Experts" . . . I think that captures it all.
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Anonymous Fanatic #2
1343 days ago
Score 0+-
I do think the ESPN guys are experts. They have an enormous amount of knowledge and experience in the field. How many of you Armchair GM's have led a team to the NCAA tournament, or played in one?
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Anonymous Fanatic #1
1343 days ago
Score 0+-
Experts are basically bobble head dolls, spouting out stuff they read from the main-stream-sports media with little-to-no-thought.
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SadlyAJetsFanLittle Leaguer
1343 days ago
Score 2+-
Nah they are definitley experts who absolutely know what they're talking about. The tournament is the most unpredictable thing in the sporting world. How are they supposed to know if a team isn't going to show up for a night or if a team like GM is gonna be on fire this tournament. They're not fortune tellers.
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Jgov05All-American
1343 days ago
Score 1+-
They're just giving their opinion. I'm sure a lot of us picked the same teams they did to make the Final Four and would have if we were in their position. Do you really think anyone could have beleived George Mason would make the Final Four before the tournament started?
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PeanMajor Leaguer
1343 days ago
Score 0+-
yeah they are experts, but its fun to goof on them
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RoblefkoLegend
1343 days ago
Score 1+-
Yes, Jgov, I think an "expert" would have. Presumably, ESPN can hire the very best; the geniuses in the field...The very best financial advisers will make you tons of money even when the stock market is down; the very best doctors will save your life when you have a 1% chance of survival, so too the very best experts should be able to pick George Mason, or at least UCLA, Florida, and LSU. Reading that article, it seemed like they knew nothing--picking UCONN, DUKE, and VILLANOVA is as obvious a pick as picking the 4 #16s to lose in the first round-- anyone can be an "expert" then. UCLA, Florida and LSU didnt come out of nowhere, they were the 2, 3, and 4 seeds respectively. You would think with some "expertise", ESPN should have figured out that those 3 teams were the ones that were going to have a huge tournament.
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PeanMajor Leaguer
1343 days ago
Score 1+-
to think someone should be able to pick George Mason is crazy talk
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Awrigh01All-Star
1343 days ago
Score 0+-
George Mason is a freak occurrence; however, I agree with Rob. If ESPN can and presumably does hires the best? Shouldn't they be a little more accurate? I'll give you NCAA b/c their are 64 variables. That doesn't excuse the "experts" horrible showing in every other sport.
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PeanMajor Leaguer
1343 days ago
Score 0+-
if it was that easy, then they wouldn't have a job with ESPN because they can make a fortune ala Biff Tannen via sports betting
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Davis21wylieMVP
1343 days ago
Score 1+-
My Final Four was Texas, UConn, Villanova, and UCLA; going into last weekend, I could have gotten all four... not really my point, but I'm just sayin'. Anyway, Roblefko, comparing stock analysts and doctors to Dick Vitale and Co. is a bit of a stretch... okay, more than just "a bit". Don't kid yourself: medicine and the stock market are both far more predictable than the NCAA Tournament! The nature of the tournament is, to use financial-market lingo, "volatility". Teams play around 30 games in the regular season, which comes out to about 1200 minutes of action. Over the course of that large a sample size, the cream rises, if you will: the best teams win the most games, the worst teams lose the most, etc. Forgive me if this is elementary, but the point is that those 1200-minutes samples, come tournament time, are reduced to 40 minutes at the minimum, 240 at the very maximum. Over the course of 40 minutes, any team in the field of 64 could, within the realm of probability, beat any other team... hell, Albany led UConn for a while! The bottom line is that the tourney is a crapshoot. We knew that going in, of course, and that's what we love about it, but don't hold it against the so-called experts for getting their picks wrong. In an alternate universe, they could have easily panned out... as could mine, instead of lying in smoldering ruins on the floor.
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Anonymous Fanatic #3
622 days ago
Score 0+-
is any one out there? i am doing a project in school and i want to know who is going to win the final four in 2008
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SSreportersLegend
622 days ago
Score 0+-
Watching the games would help.
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Anonymous Fanatic #3
622 days ago
Score 0+-
please respond soon!!!!!
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This page was last modified 15:53, 17 March 2008. Content is available under the GFDL.

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