Does Ryan Howard Have a Shot at the All Time Homeruns Record?
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by user Jgov05
What Ryan Howard is doing this half of the season is truly incredible. He has been undeniable, an impossible force at the plate. He has 7 homeruns in 8 games in September, and after jacking two today, he has 13 homers in his past 16 games. This has put him on pace for 65, which would be the first non-steroid induced, 61-beating season. (let's just hope Howard's all natural)
This success in just his sophmore year got me thinking...does Howard have a shot at Hank Aaron's record 755 homers?
In fact, he does. Howard is only 26 years old. Let's assume that he'll continue to be effective until he's 40, which is always a question with how often baseball players get hurt. Now, bringing out the calculator, we see that Howard would need to average 48.35 homeruns his next 14 seasons to get to 756 (factoring out the 78 career homers he has now).
That, of course, would be a run unlike anything we've ever seen.
But then again, Howard is a player unlike we've ever seen. He's already set the Phillies and second-year player homerun record in addition to winning Rookie of the Year last year. Obviously it's way too early to make a call like this, but with what he has been doing it seems nearly justifiable. Many have argued that Pujols or Adam Dunn will break the records even though they're both in their 20's. Howard's just played 2, but he looks better than even Pujols did in his second year.
The Phillies' finest has a chance at another great homerun record. That would be the single season record, held by Bonds with 73 in 2001. While that is way out of reach this season, if he keeps this up Howard will have a chance at that next year. Here's why: in 53 games since the All Star break this season, Howard has jacked 28 longballs. Project that to a whole season, and he would have 86. We've only seen the tip of the iceberg, folks.
Date
Fri 09/08/06, 6:48 pm EST
