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Does Ryan Howard Have a Shot at the All Time Homeruns Record?

11
Vote

by user Jgov05

What Ryan Howard is doing this half of the season is truly incredible. He has been undeniable, an impossible force at the plate. He has 7 homeruns in 8 games in September, and after jacking two today, he has 13 homers in his past 16 games. This has put him on pace for 65, which would be the first non-steroid induced, 61-beating season. (let's just hope Howard's all natural)

This success in just his sophmore year got me thinking...does Howard have a shot at Hank Aaron's record 755 homers?

In fact, he does. Howard is only 26 years old. Let's assume that he'll continue to be effective until he's 40, which is always a question with how often baseball players get hurt. Now, bringing out the calculator, we see that Howard would need to average 48.35 homeruns his next 14 seasons to get to 756 (factoring out the 78 career homers he has now).

That, of course, would be a run unlike anything we've ever seen.

But then again, Howard is a player unlike we've ever seen. He's already set the Phillies and second-year player homerun record in addition to winning Rookie of the Year last year. Obviously it's way too early to make a call like this, but with what he has been doing it seems nearly justifiable. Many have argued that Pujols or Adam Dunn will break the records even though they're both in their 20's. Howard's just played 2, but he looks better than even Pujols did in his second year.

The Phillies' finest has a chance at another great homerun record. That would be the single season record, held by Bonds with 73 in 2001. While that is way out of reach this season, if he keeps this up Howard will have a chance at that next year. Here's why: in 53 games since the All Star break this season, Howard has jacked 28 longballs. Project that to a whole season, and he would have 86. We've only seen the tip of the iceberg, folks.


Date

Fri 09/08/06, 6:48 pm EST


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I am a cpcpMajor Leaguer
1160 days ago
Score 1+-
When I read your title I threw up in my mouth. Dude's a rookie. "Howard is a player unlike we've ever seen"? They said this about Griffey in his early years and look how his career has ended up. They said this about Jose Canseco and Mark McGwire and they got nowhere close. Even Barry Bonds the "greatest hitter ever" according to some, will likely fall short.


There are too many ifs, ands and buts (and needles and creams and clears) to talk about this now.


Save this article for when he hits number 700.
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Jgov05All-American
1160 days ago
Score -1+-
He's a second year player, not a rookie. The reason I said he wasn't like anyone we've ever seen is that he broke the Phillies and second-year player homerun records, not because I'm inferring he's the best player ever. He's no where close as of now. There's a front-page article on AGM that says Jose Reyes could be the best leadoff hitter ever. So why can't Howard be compared to some of the all-time power hitters.
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Jgov05All-American
1160 days ago
Score 1+-
"Look where Griffey's career has ended up." He's only the #11 homerun hitter of all time, with 562, and a certain Hall of Famer. I'd say that's a pretty good career.
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Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
1160 days ago
Score 1+-
saying his 'second year' in comparison to other second year players is like comparing Ichiro's rookie year to everyone else's... Ichiro would be on pace for 7,000 hits using your logic.
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Jgov05All-American
1160 days ago
Score 0+-
Do you really think that he's just going to go away? And the Ichiro comparison was a bad one considering that he has held up to his rookie year.
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Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
1160 days ago
Score 1+-
He was 27 as a rookie!!! He isn't going to sniff any all time records! The dudes with all-time records played for 20+ seasons!!!
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Jgov05All-American
1160 days ago
Score 0+-
I didn't say Ichiro was going to break the all-time hits record. I meant that his numbers of hits has stayed relatively the same since he was a rookie.
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Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
1160 days ago
Score 3+-
Umm, everybody calm down... Howard's having a great season, but PLEASE keep perspective. 26 years old is smack dab in the middle of the average player's prime. A-Rod has the record for most home runs through age 26; a mere 298...gee, 222 behind A-Rod is Howard with 78 (Aaaron had 219 at age 26). So I think Howard would have WORK to do to catch Ruth, Aaron or Bonds... but the record will well beyond those fellas by the time Howard gets within earshot. The record for Home Runs in a season for a 26 year old is Roger Maris... 61. followed by Babe Ruth with 59 and A-Rod with 57. So who cares that he is 'just' a second year player? He is in his prime right now. Ten straight years of prime-like seasons like this MIGHT get him to 600... IF that happens, remind me you said it first.
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Jgov05All-American
1160 days ago
Score -1+-
Alright, Howard did have a late start to his career. But I think that he'll eventually pass A-Rod because of his pace. A-Rod's career best season was 57 homers. Howard will caertainly pass that this year. I think Howard has a chance at recording multiple 60 and 70 homerun seasons and shattering every record there is. He also has a chance at being persistenly injured and winding up a bust. But aren't plenty of the articles on this site about speculation? Articles such as the ones about Jeter and Reyes in the "good stuff." Note that I never said that he will break the record. I just presented his chances of doing so.
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Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
1160 days ago
Score 2+-
His chances are ZERO!!! You need to go to the library and read some Bill James' historical Abstracts and see where he does career projections... Howard passing 700 home runs has to be something like less than 1/2%. Even WITH a bandbox home park. He won't get the at-bats and if he DOES keep up the pace, he won't get pitches to hit. Kerry Wood has a better chance of breaking the all-time strikeout record.
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Jgov05All-American
1160 days ago
Score -1+-
Did I ever say that I guaranteed Howard would break the record? I haven't. I'm just in complete awe of what I've seen the past month and I'm trying to find a way to apply it to a bigger picture. That's all.
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Jgov05All-American
1160 days ago
Score -1+-
Rafael Palmerio had 73 career homeruns by age 26. And he never even looked close to as good as Howard has this year, yet he ranks in the top 10 in homers all time. Don't say Howard has no chance.
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I am a cpcpMajor Leaguer
1159 days ago
Score 1+-
Palmerio tested positive for steriods. So you're saying if Howard gets a shot at roiding up he has a chance?
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Bball3345Draft Pick
1159 days ago
Score 0+-
Manny using Bill James to defend his point. Never thought I would see that... I applaud you and congrats on passing me for most promoted articles.
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Anonymous Fanatic #1
1160 days ago
Score 1+-
I agree, he has been awesome... Babe Ruth is the guy you could try to compare him with, since he spent his first 4 years pitching... Greatest Home Run hitter per AB, averaged over 40 HRs/season until he was 38. BUT he already had 162 by age 26. Babe is currently 3rd on the list and will be WELL in 4th by the time A-Rod gets done. There is no argument...
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Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
1160 days ago
Score 1+-
^^^that was me... to catch A-Rod's CURRENT pace Howard needs 350 MORE Home Runs before he turns 30. Good luck Ryan, I would LOVE to see it happen, truly I would. (we can nickname him "Paste" then)
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Jgov05All-American
1160 days ago
Score -1+-
OK, A-Rod does have a much better chance at the record. But we've seen his potential and what he can do. We haven't seen Howard's ceiling yet. You may argue that this will be his peak year, but I'd like you to find me one player whose best year has been their second year (barring injuries). I think that, regardless of how many homeruns he ends up with for his career, Howard will have a good chance at breaking many of the other HR records. Maybe I got a little too optimistic, but I'd like to find a player that is significantly better than all of the late-90's steroid users and can shatter their records. That is all.
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Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
1160 days ago
Score 2+-
Well, breaking Phillies All-time records aren't really all that impressive. Schmidt would have hit 60 at Citizens easy.

I like Howard, I think his ability to hit to all fields is uncanny and I root for him to do well.

The Reyes article opened up the debate by saying the numbers said he was All-Time while logic told a different story, the obvious truth. "All-Time" gets thrown around too easily... I applaud your effort and standing in the line of our fire, but as we pointed out it is crazytalk at this point when there are guys out there doing it consistently for years that we dismiss constantly (Griffey still has years left in him, A-Rod, Pujols, Manny Ramirez, Vladi...)
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I am a cpcpMajor Leaguer
1160 days ago
Score 2+-
Jgov, you should really try and learn to be a little more defensive. You need to stop sitting back and letting other people disagree with you. (end sarcasm)
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I am a cpcpMajor Leaguer
1160 days ago
Score 1+-
sorry about the rookie/2nd year messup, by the way. guess I should research a little more.


and don't take the above comment too seriously, I was just kidding around.
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Jgov05All-American
1160 days ago
Score -1+-
No, I enjoyed that comment. It cracked me up.
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Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
1160 days ago
Score 2+-
One last thing and I'm done... Pujols - you said "but he looks better than even Pujols did in his second year" yeah, Pujols (supposedly at least) is 2 months YOUNGER than Ryan Howard...
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Twins15Varsity Captain
1160 days ago
Score 1+-
Hmmm... I didn't see the positive steroid tests for Bonds, McGwire, or Sosa... you'd think those would have been bigger news.
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Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
1160 days ago
Score 2+-
but Assumption is 99% of Journalistic Law.

While you are 100% accurate in your statement, I don't think there's any doubt they all 'tried' some form of enhancements - How much? We'll never know. How much did it REALLY affect their performance? We'll never know.

BUT, With/without steroids, HGH, cream/clear, Bonds was going to be an all-time great and McGwire was going to bash many Home Runs... Sosa clearly benefitted from a 'sudden' career boost.
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Bball3345Draft Pick
1159 days ago
Score 1+-
So Bonds has passed every drug test MLB has used and is still guilty, but Howard has passed all MLB's tests and he must be clean. I'm not saying Howard has juiced, but why have drug tests if the public picks and chooses who the tests apply to.
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Anonymous Fanatic #2
949 days ago
Score 0+-
the steroid thing was in the news idiot
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CochiseWaterboy
1160 days ago
Score 0+-
Just my take, and I know this has been said before, this discussion is starting WAY, WAY too early. I know you are excited about Howard, but one very good season doesn't prove anything and he certainly is not a Hank Aaron calibar player yet just cause he will probably belt 60+ home runs in his second year.


Give this maybe 5-10 years and then you can start this discussion. Until then it is just ridiculous to do so.
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Jgov05All-American
1160 days ago
Score -1+-
I understand, that's why I wrote this: "Obviously it's way too early to make a call like this."
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CochiseWaterboy
1160 days ago
Score 0+-
But you follow that up by saying based on what he has done it is justifiable which I don't think is true. I don't think it would be justifiable to talk about PUJOLS in this manner yet...
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JCantRootWaterboy
1160 days ago
Score 2+-
I think he's got a shot at 754, but I don't think he'll get to 755
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Anonymous Fanatic #3
1151 days ago
Score 0+-
if howard could reach that then any body lese could don it
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Balls
1150 days ago
Score 0+-
For those of us who played baseball at a higher level, his swing is pure coming from the hips, and ashame to mention but it's not from the Gigantic forearms of some carnival act players of late. Moreso, you'll notice that he "flicks" his hips, and lets the bat do All the work, like dropping the bat right on the ball when it's in his wheel house and great eye. I see the potential as extraordinary, the Maris family didn't put their mouth on the line for Howard in faith, again. The Maris' agree Howard would be the all time leader if he hits 62 because they know the swing needed to drop the hammer and go to all fields. I'm convinced some here have never played the game AND have never watched him at bat, otherwise you would be talking about his posture, swing, plate command, & not whether he'll break a record. People express opinions for the sake of making themselves feel right, this guy deserves everyone's utmost respect. That is anyone who Loves the game and not a team.
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Anonymous Fanatic #2
949 days ago
Score 1+-
people who say howards on steroids r dumb.his belly is to big hes on the heavy side if u ask me.there just jealous the phillys have a awsome non steroid using hitter.which is rare in the leauge anymore.4/7/07 as i was typing this rollins had in side home run makin it 3-1 over marlins woot.as i watch howards up and hes swing at so pretty low piches.i think he to concerned on being the big star agian he forgot to be patiant and wait for his pitch.Chase utley for mvp woot
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MECUVarsity
949 days ago
Score -1+-
People who use r instead of are and u instead of you are dumb. This isn't a cell phone.
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Anonymous Fanatic #2
949 days ago
Score 1+-
dos it really matter r u hurt by it
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Anonymous Fanatic #4
868 days ago
Score 0+-
you guys dont no anything about RH
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This page was last modified 12:17, 9 September 2006. Content is available under the GFDL.

Categories: Opinions | MLB Opinions | Philadelphia Phillies Opinions | Ryan Howard Opinions | September 8, 2006 | Opinions by User Jgov05

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