Does Alex Rodriguez Help A Team Win?: A Statistical Analysis
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by user Tyduffy
Though disliked by many, even his naysayers will grudgingly admit that Alex Rodriguez may be the best player of his generation. Halfway through his 12th full season and prior to his 32nd birthday, A-Rod sits just 8 homeruns shy of 500. Barring a Griffey-esque collapse due to injury, he will most likely obliterate the steroid-stained record of the Balco Bomber and potentially break the 800 home run barrier. He will end up being the greatest player at his position of all time, whether one considers him a shortstop or a third baseman.
The palpable distaste for Rodriguez even emanates from his own fans. His massive $252 million 10-year contract, largest in the history of sport, surely constitutes part of the reason. The way that he weasled out of Texas to join the Yankees didn't win him many friends. Most importantly is the perception that he cracks like an egg under the slightest of pressure. Content to beat up on mediocre pitching and always eager to add the cherry on top of a 5 run lead, fans believe, with some justification, that he shrivels like a 2 week old kitten in the face of pressure, particularly in the postseason.
He currently may be enjoying his best statistical season (or anyone's) to date for that matter. Even with a putrid May, he is currently batting .322 with 28HR and 80RBI. He compliments that with a .422 OBP and 1.091 OPS (the highest of his career). A season in which he finishes with near 60HR and 160RBIs will set the mindless MVP voters swirling and he may be a unanimous choice for that honor. There is only one problem. The Yankees are 38-41, three games under .500 and lucky to be only 11 games behind the division leading Red Sox.
The greatest player of his generation is having arguably his greatest season, and his team is playing terribly. Is this a coincidence or does it follow a pattern over A-Rod's career. Does he flourish in losing situations? Here are his OPS numbers in his eleven full Major League seasons compared with his team's record. (Note: The editorial staff determined that OPS was the most succinct way to quantify and compare his performance over the course of a season.
Seattle Mariners
1996: 85-76 (2nd) - 1.045 OPS
1997: 90-72 (1st) - 0.846 OPS
1998: 76-85 (3rd) - 0.920 OPS
1999: 79-83 (3rd) - 0.943 OPS
2000: 91-71 (2nd) - 1.026 OPS
Texas Rangers
2001: 71-91 (4th) - 1.021 OPS
2002: 73-89 (4th) - 1.015 OPS
2003: 71-91 (4th) - 0.995 OPS
New York Yankees
2004: 101-61 (1st) - o.888 OPS
2005: 95-67 (1st) - 1.031 OPS
2006: 97-65 (1st) - 0.914 OPS
What do these numbers say definitively? Not a whole lot. There are a number of ways to manipulate them, as with all statistics, but here are some of the interesting breakdowns.
His three worst seasons were in 1997 (.846), 2004 (.888), and 2006 (.914). His team's records were 90-72, 101-61, and 97-65 respectively. In each year, his teams finished first in their division.
To counter that, however, his teams have also had winning records in his three best full seasons. The three seasons were 1996 (1.045) when the Mariners finished 85-76, 2005 (1.031) when the Yankees finished 95-67, and 2000 when the Mariners finished 91-71. Though, it should be noted, the Mariners finished second in their division in both 1996 and 2000, and the 95-67 showing by the Yankees was their worst during his tenure and they only tied for the AL East title (edging Boston out on head to head play).
In Rodriguez' top eight seasons, his team's won the division once, made the playoffs twice, and finished above .500 only three times.
Since he signed his $252 million dollar mega-deal (including the 2007 season thus far), when Rodriguez has an OPS over 1 his teams have a 276-286 record (.491 winning percentage). In seasons in which his OPS was under 1, his teams had a combined 269-217 record (.553 winning percentage).
There are many ways to slice the data, and, in these instances, there appears to be somewhat of an inverse correlation between how well Alex Rodriguez performs in a given seasons. When his .OPS goes up, the winning percentage of the team often drops.
Does this prove once and for all that A-Rod is the world's biggest choker who only performs well when his teams loses or through some mysterious affect actually hurts the team when he racks up his numbers? No. The sample size is much to small to support those conclusions, and some contradictory data (notably 2000 and 2005 appear to directly contradict that). There area also many other things that are involved with winning a baseball game that are beyond his control, like the performance of the eight other players in the lineup and the pitching staff.
However, what the numbers do show is that there does not appear to be any correlation between Rodriguez playing well and his team winning. The primary goal of any organization is to have the best record and win the World Series. Even when he is playing his best baseball, Alex Rodriguez alone cannot gurantee that. Teams like the Cubs, who appear willing to break the bank on another mega-deal if A-Rod decides to opt out of his current one should be wary about all of their eggs in one basket.
The knock on A-Rod is probably mostly perception, and the only way that he will break that view of him is to perform in October, and with the Yankees. Unfortunately, the way things are heading this season in the Bronx, he may not have that opportunity.
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Looks like A-Rod has consistently led his team's offense to a highly-ranked performance... it's actually been the pitching staffs that have let his teams down.
