Dead Soxy: World Series Pitching Matchups for the East Coast Biased
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by Tylersalt, AGM Boston Red Sox Beat Writer
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Well, whether it exists outside of the media or not, we're all familiar with the term "East Coast Bias." It's the same term that allows people to make inane statements like, "Of course the Red Sox are going to win the World Series... can you even name 5 Colorado Rockies?" Tell you what: any self-respecting baseball fan should be able to, and if they can't, it means they haven't been paying attention to one of the best postseason story lines in recent memory, and that the media hasn't been doing its job. Let me pick up the slack and give you a few notable names that apparently people can't remember:
- Matt Holliday, potential NL MVP
- Troy Tulowitzki, potential NL ROY
- Todd Helton, potential Hall of Famer, giving a serious veteran presence in the order and clubhouse
- Brad Hawpe, a very solid outfielder and consistent bat in the middle of the order
- Garrett Atkins, the third baseman who has really started to hit his stride after a slow start to the season
- Kazuo Matsui, left for dead by the Mets, he has had a career year in Denver and has been straight clutch in the playoffs
...and that's without even mentioning any pitchers! Jeff Francis, the WS Game 1 starter, was 17-9 on the year (with most of those losses coming early in the season), 8-5 at home and 9-4 on the road, and who outpitched Boston ace Josh Beckett in June, handing the ALCS MVP his first loss of the season. Josh Fogg, after an up-and-down season (or an up-and-down career, if you will), outdueled presumptive NL Cy Young winner Jake Peavy in the one-game playoff to get the NL Wild Card spot. Manny Corpas, who has appeared in all seven of the Rockies' postseason games, allowing only 1 run in 8 2/3 innings, amassing a 1-0 record with 5 saves. The list goes on. There might not be the level of name-brand talent out in Denver that there is in Boston, but these guys can play some serious ball.
We know what the Rockies can do at the plate with guys like Holliday, Helton, Hawpe (the alliteration bunch!) Atkins, and rookie captain (!) Tulowitski, but despite what I've laid out above the big question mark in this series is undoubtedly the starting pitching. How do they match up against the Red Sox? That's what I'm here for -- I'm going to go in-depth on each pitching matchup before each World Series game, identify key players, and give you the information you need to be an informed fan -- of the Red Sox or Rockies -- watching the Fall Classic.
GAME 1
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I'll start with Beckett, because people are obviously more familiar with him. Beckett, the ALCS MVP after winning games 1 and 5 and allowing only 3 runs in 14 innings of work, is being hailed as the new Mr. October, and the title is well deserved. All this guy does is dominate in the postseason -- from his MVP performance at Yankee Stadium in the clinching Game 6 of the 2003 World Series, to his complete game shutout of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in the Division Series, to his two huge wins in the Championship Series against Indians, Beckett has been nearly untouchable in the postseason. This year, it's been chiefly because of his breaking ball. He snaps off curves seemingly at will that hit at around 85 miles per hour on the corners. His fastball is up around 95 and has some screwball action breaking down and in to right handed hitters, and he changes speed effectively to keep hitters off balance.
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6 votes 
1 comment- Key to beating Beckett: Get to him early. Beckett's big weakness (if you can really call it that) has been in the first inning of his starts. Two of the three runs he has allowed in this postseason came in the first inning, one off of a monster home run by Travis Hafner. Beckett's emotions can sometimes get the best of him, and he probably comes out really hot in the first and tries to overthrow everything. That means that his two-seam fastball won't move nearly as much as it does normally, and his curve will be faster and flatter -- all in all, much more hittable. The top of the Rockies order (Willy Taveras, Matsui, and Holliday) have got to get on base against Beckett in the first and get some runs across before he gets into a rhythm for Colorado to have a shot against him.
Worth His Salt: Atkins, Matsui, and Holliday all hit Beckett very well back in June at Fenway Park, hitting a collective 7-9 with 2 HR, 3 2B, and 5 RBI. They're going to have to keep that up.
Francis's greatest strength is going to have to be his control. In the postseason, his K/BB ratio is an even 4. and he's going to have to keep that up against the Red Sox. He doesn't have Beckett's velocity, but he's a similar pitcher in many ways: he basically throws fastball/curve/change, has great command, and doesn't back down from hitters. He cuts and sinks his fastball and can throw the curve in any count. David Ortiz and the other Boston lefties are in for a tough battle, as southpaws bat 47 points lower against Francis than do righties. Odd for a Rockies starter is that his stats are almost even on the road and at home at Coors Field. Against Boston in June he struck out 6 (including Kevin Youkilis twice) and walked only two (Ortiz once and Coco Crisp once), while allowing 7 hits in 5.0 innings.
- Key to beating Francis: Be aggressive. Including the playoffs, Francis has thrown 1.6 strikes for every ball and does not walk a lot of hitters, so the Sox are not going to be able to rely on their excellent patience to get themselves on base as they did against Fausto Carmona and the rest of the Indians staff. Francis is also very slow to the plate, so the Red Sox might turn up the running game to make the most of the baserunners they do get.
Worth His Salt: Jacoby Ellsbury and Julio Lugo. Lugo has been just plain bad this season, tallying a -1.30 WPA in the regular season and a -0.36 WPA for the playoffs. His OPS for the playoffs is an anemic .495, he's grounded into 4 double plays, and the rookie Ellsbury was intentionally walked to load the bases to bring him up to the plate. He has got to get on base somehow so they can take advantage of his speed on the basepaths against Francis. Ellsbury and Coco Crisp also need to make it on base and run a bit.
Tomorrow, I will review Game 1 and preview the pitching matchup and players who need to be Worth Their Salt for Game 2. Enjoy the game, sports fans!
Other Articles
- Check out Rawbeezeitz's article called Colorado's Advantages. He's got the right idea -- the Red Sox cannot be complacent or they will be rolled, big time.
