Dead Soxy: Game 3 Preview
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by Tylersalt
I know you're all just clamoring for another World Series recap column (</sarcasm>), but I'm going to skip right to the preview of tonight's Game 3 at Coors Field between the Boston Red Sox and the Colorado Rockies. Game 2 was a much better game than Game 1, and the pitcher's duel was completely unexpected by the media. The most frequent comment I heard was that the loser would have 7 runs or more (most notably by the Boston Globe's Bob Ryan on PTI), but that certainly wasn't the case, as the Rockies didn't have much of an answer for Curt Schilling, Hideki Okajima, and Jonathan Papelbon. However, I think that prediction was just a game too early, as tonight's first game in Denver has the potential to turn into a slug-fest for a number of reasons which I'll go into here. First, some quick news and notes from around the internet:
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1 comment- ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick, among others, is reporting that Boston 1st baseman Kevin Youkilis will be the odd man out at first base tonight, as David Ortiz will take the field with his "brand new" first baseman's glove in the National League ballpark. Ortiz isn't a complete disaster at first base (it's very easy to play acceptable defense there), but his injured knees could present a problem. Youkilis will be the greatest hitting defensive replacement ever coming off the bench. This will also mean a change to the top of the Sox lineup, as rookies Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia will hit in the top two spots with Youkilis out.
- According to SI.com, Sox backup infielder Royce Clayton, when he isn't busy obviously shilling for the Taco Bell free taco promotion for Fox, apparently has become the resident Coors Field expert in the Sox clubhouse, after spending the 2004 season with the Rockies.
- An angle about the altitude in Denver that has not been talked about much has been the possibility of altitude sickness. Visitors to Coors have long complained of "chills, cramps, dehydration, dizziness, dry mouth, fatigue, headaches, insomnia, lethargy and nosebleeds. [1]" The Red Sox were in town yesterday to begin to acclimate, but it has yet to be seen what effect it will have on them.
Game 3: Boston Leads Series 2-0
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Daisuke Matsuzaka
Last Postseason Appearance: ALCS Game 7 -- W, 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 K, 0 BB
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Matsuzaka could be in a load of trouble pitching in the thin air of Coors Field. In the high altitude, breaking balls do not move nearly as much as they do at sea level, and part of what makes Dice-K an effective pitcher is his large array of breaking pitches. Those pitches will not be the weapons they are in Boston, and catcher Jason Varitek will be forced to call many more fastballs and cut fastballs. Unfortunately, when Matsuzaka has over-relied on his fastball, which is very straight, he tends to get hit and hit hard, especially if he leaves it up in the zone. Tonight should be no different, as the Rockies are as a team very good fastball hitters and are loathe to swing at breaking balls out of the strike zone. Another factor which works against Matsuzaka is his slight tendency as a fly-ball pitcher, with a GB/FB ratio of 0.88. Coors remains an exceptional hitters' park even with the effect of the humidor the balls are kept in, and the outfield is expansive to say the least. This shouldn't be much of a problem for Ellsbury and J.D. Drew, both above-average defenders, but it could be even more of an adventure than normal for Manny Ramirez in left.
Other Notes:
- Matsuzaka is quick to the plate out of the stretch, which should slow down the Colorado running game.
- Dice-K and Rockies second baseman Kazuo Matsui were teammates in Japan with the Seibu Lions from 1999-2003.
- He will have to be careful against the heart of the Colorado order, as they are much better breaking ball hitters than Cleveland and will pound any hanging off-speed pitches.
How To Beat Matsuzaka: Wait on the fastball. If Daisuke's breaking pitches are as ineffective as I think they might be tonight, the Rockies will be able to sit on the fastball high in the zone (where Matsuzaka's control of it is best), and hit him around. Patience will be the key for the Colorado lineup.
Josh Fogg
Last Postseason Appearance: NLCS Game 3, W, 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 3 K, 1 BB
Fogg is the Rockies' "Giant Killer," as he's faced and beaten some of the National League's best pitchers head-to-head, most notably the presumptive Cy Young winner Jake Peavy in the one-game playoff for the NL Wild Card. Fogg's strategy has been to throw a lot of pitches and get hitters to chase pitches out of the strike zone, something that the Boston hitters do not do very often. Fogg walked 3.21 batters per 9 innings in 2007, and he's going to have to throw more strikes against this very, very patient Red Sox lineup. He'll be effective against Ellsbury and Pedroia as younger hitters are generally more apt to take strikes and get behind in the count. Lefty sluggers like David Ortiz and J.D. Drew, both good low-ball hitters, will give him fits tonight. His number one priority tonight must be to stay ahead of the Red Sox batters. If he can throw first pitch strikes and stay out of 2- and 3-ball counts, he has a chance to be very effective. Fogg isn't going to completely shut down this lineup -- all he has to do is out-pitch Matsuzaka -- something that is eminently doable at Coors -- and the Rockies can win this game.
Other Notes:
- Fogg was a dead-neutral pitcher this season, with a GB/FB ratio of exactly 1.00. His career ratio of 1.19 tends him towards being a slight ground-ball pitcher, which plays into the hands of the Rockies with the best defense in the league.
- Fogg usually allows a lot of base runners (a WHIP of 1.53 this season), which can be an issue against this Boston team who have already drawn 6 bases-loaded walks this postseason.
- Fogg carries a .500 record for his career in the regular season, at 60-60.
How to beat Fogg: Be patient. Wait for him to beat himself and walk batters. Fogg isn't going to strike many batters out (he sports a 5.11 K/9 ratio on the year), and must get outs by inducing swings at pitches out of the strike zone. The Boston hitters must work their way into hitters counts and swing at strikes.
