Davis21wylie's Week 8 NFL Team Rankings
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by user Davis21wylie
Okay, I know I said that I wasn't going to do one of these this week, but I forgot that False Prophet uses my numbers for the NFL BCS rankings. So, I'll just post the results and let the numbers speak for themselves.
One new wrinkle, though -- while I'm still predicting net points with the formula PNP = (Net Yards / 12) + (4 * Net Turnovers), and net wins by pNW = (Games / 2) + (PNP / 40), this method will only comprise half of my rankings. Since net yards don't take into account punt/kickoff/return yardage, teams with good special teams were being undervalued, so I'm also using the good old pythagorean projection:
- pW% = (PF^2.37)/((PF^2.37)+(PA^2.37))
Predicted net wins and % are denoted by pW1 and pW%1, and pythagorean wins and % are denoted by pW2 and pW%2. "Rating" is simply the average of the two expected winning percentages.
Team Rankings (sorted by Rating):
Team G Off Def Give Take NetYds NetTO PNP pW1 pW%1 PF PA pW2 pW%2 Rating Chicago 7 2352 1721 11 22 631 11 96.6 5.9 0.845 221 69 6.6 0.940 0.893 San Diego 7 2592 1859 5 12 733 7 89.1 5.7 0.818 216 109 5.8 0.835 0.827 New England 7 2379 2079 8 14 300 6 49.0 4.7 0.675 167 87 5.8 0.824 0.750 Baltimore 7 1923 1915 11 22 8 11 44.7 4.6 0.660 145 91 5.3 0.751 0.705 Dallas 7 2553 1928 15 15 625 0 52.1 4.8 0.686 204 142 4.9 0.702 0.694 Indianapolis 7 2675 2348 4 11 327 7 55.3 4.9 0.697 205 153 4.7 0.667 0.682 Philadelphia 8 3147 2529 13 14 618 1 55.5 5.4 0.673 206 160 5.2 0.645 0.659 New York G 7 2588 2157 11 12 431 1 39.9 4.5 0.643 180 134 4.7 0.668 0.655 Atlanta 7 2549 2307 7 15 242 8 52.2 4.8 0.686 153 134 4.0 0.578 0.632 Jacksonville 7 2090 1982 9 11 108 2 17.0 3.9 0.561 138 107 4.5 0.646 0.604 Denver 7 2177 2069 12 10 108 -2 1.0 3.5 0.504 110 78 4.9 0.693 0.598 St. Louis 7 2483 2455 6 16 28 10 42.3 4.6 0.651 163 166 3.4 0.489 0.570 New Orleans 7 2529 2148 13 9 381 -4 15.8 3.9 0.556 167 145 4.1 0.583 0.570 Pittsburgh 7 2415 1937 18 13 478 -5 19.8 4.0 0.571 157 145 3.8 0.547 0.559 Cincinnati 7 2220 2376 9 14 -156 5 7.0 3.7 0.525 155 142 3.9 0.552 0.538 Minnesota 7 2242 2097 12 12 145 0 12.1 3.8 0.543 127 126 3.5 0.505 0.524 Kansas City 7 2266 2063 14 13 203 -1 12.9 3.8 0.546 152 152 3.5 0.500 0.523 Green Bay 7 2435 2556 13 11 -121 -2 -18.1 3.0 0.435 152 176 2.9 0.414 0.425 Miami 7 2264 1936 13 8 328 -5 7.3 3.7 0.526 102 145 2.1 0.303 0.415 Washington 7 2281 2451 6 5 -170 -1 -18.2 3.0 0.435 140 171 2.7 0.384 0.409 Carolina 8 2343 2662 13 11 -319 -2 -34.6 3.1 0.392 137 163 3.2 0.398 0.395 Seattle 7 2062 2405 14 12 -343 -2 -36.6 2.6 0.369 149 177 2.8 0.399 0.384 New York J 8 2348 2873 14 14 -525 0 -43.8 2.9 0.363 160 193 3.1 0.391 0.377 Detroit 7 2290 2450 15 11 -160 -4 -29.3 2.8 0.395 132 189 2.1 0.299 0.347 Arizona 8 2183 2750 17 20 -567 3 -35.3 3.1 0.390 134 196 2.3 0.289 0.339 Cleveland 7 1738 2215 18 10 -477 -8 -71.8 1.7 0.244 108 139 2.5 0.355 0.299 Tennessee 7 1909 2606 12 13 -697 1 -54.1 2.1 0.307 113 179 1.8 0.252 0.279 Buffalo 7 1826 2200 15 7 -374 -8 -63.2 1.9 0.274 100 153 1.9 0.267 0.271 Tampa Bay 7 1778 2379 11 9 -601 -2 -58.1 2.0 0.293 88 142 1.7 0.243 0.268 Houston 7 2085 2511 14 5 -426 -9 -71.5 1.7 0.245 121 182 1.9 0.275 0.260 Oakland 7 1638 1998 21 12 -360 -9 -66.0 1.9 0.264 92 148 1.7 0.245 0.255 San Francisco 7 2176 2574 17 8 -398 -9 -69.2 1.8 0.253 134 235 1.5 0.209 0.231
Hopefully I'll have time to rank players again next week...
See also:
- 2006 NFL Capsules: Introduction ("NFL at the Movies")
- Davis21wylie's Week 7 NFL Player -- And Team! -- Rankings
- Davis21wylie's Week 6 NFL Player -- And Team! -- Rankings
- Davis21wylie's Week 5 NFL Player Rankings
- Davis21wylie's Week 4 NFL Player Rankings
- Davis21wylie's Week 3 NFL Player Rankings
- Davis21wylie's Week 2 NFL Player Rankings
- Davis21wylie's Week 1 NFL Player Rankings
