Davis21wylie's Week 16 NFL Team Rankings

Greetings and salutations, football fanatics! I hope everybody had a very Merry Christmas (or a Happy Hanukkah, a Wonderful Winter Solstice, a Festive Festivus, a Content Kwanzaa, a... ah, screw it -- let's just say a Happy New Year!). With only one week left in the NFL's regular season (time sure flies, doesn't it?), the playoff races are closer than ever -- the Broncos, Jets, Titans, Chiefs, Bengals, and Jaguars are all vying for the last two Wild Card spots... and that's just the AFC! The NFC is a veritable disaster area, with the Rams, Falcons, Panthers, Packers, and Giants all sitting at 7-8 and hoping for a miracle Wild-Card berth. Meanwhile, Philly and Dallas are still duking it out for the NFC East title, and both play games in Week 17 that will factor heavily into the Wild Card scenarios as well. Yep, it's a great time to be a football fan -- unless you're a devotee of Arizona, Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, Houston, Miami, Minnesota, Oakland, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Tampa Bay, or Washington, in which case there's always next year!

Here's my typical boring explanation about how the rankings are calculated: while I'm still predicting net points with the formula PNP = (Net Yards / 12) + (4 * Net Turnovers), and net wins by pNW = (Games / 2) + (PNP / 40), this method will only comprise 37.5% of my rankings. Since net yards don't take into account punt/kickoff/return yardage, teams with good special teams were being undervalued, so I'm also using the good old pythagorean projection:

pW% = (PF^2.37)/((PF^2.37)+(PA^2.37))

Predicted net wins and % are denoted by pW1 and pW%1, and pythagorean wins and % are denoted by pW2 and pW%2. A new feature over the past couple weeks has been the addition of a strength of schedule component. What I used to call "rating" (the average of pW%1 and pW%2) is now referred to as the "raw" rating, while "SOS" is the cumulative winning % of the team's opponents. "New Rating" is now 75% the old "raw" rating, and 25% SOS. (Again, I'm using NFL.com's SOS data, meaning that it ought to be right.) So, here goes:

Team Rankings (sorted by New Rating):

Rk Prv	Team			G  	Off	Def	Give	Take	NetYds	NetTO	PNP	pW1	pW%1	PF	PA	pW2	pW%2	Raw	SOS	NewRtg
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1  1	San Diego Chargers 	15	5453	4381	14	27	1072	13	141.3	11.0	0.736	465	283	11.5	0.764	0.750	0.467	0.679
2  2	Baltimore Ravens 	15	4745	3972	22	37	773	15	124.4	10.6	0.707	334	194	11.8	0.784	0.746	0.471	0.677
3  3	Chicago Bears 		15	4883	4333	30	43	550	13	97.8	9.9	0.663	420	229	12.1	0.808	0.736	0.413	0.655
4  4	New England Patriots 	15	4955	4368	27	32	587	5	68.9	9.2	0.615	345	214	11.3	0.756	0.686	0.502	0.640
5  5	Jacksonville Jaguars 	15	5026	4143	22	21	883	-1	69.6	9.2	0.616	341	239	10.5	0.699	0.657	0.524	0.624
6  8	New Orleans Saints 	15	5967	4604	21	19	1363	-2	105.6	10.1	0.676	392	291	10.0	0.670	0.673	0.458	0.619
7  7	Indianapolis Colts 	15	5671	4962	18	25	709	7	87.1	9.7	0.645	400	338	9.0	0.598	0.622	0.516	0.595
8  10	Philadelphia Eagles 	15	5710	4871	23	28	839	5	89.9	9.7	0.650	374	311	9.1	0.608	0.629	0.480	0.592
9  6	Dallas Cowboys 		15	5407	4803	26	30	604	4	66.3	9.2	0.611	394	311	9.5	0.637	0.624	0.476	0.587
10 11	Cincinnati Bengals 	15	5167	5199	24	29	-32	5	17.3	7.9	0.529	356	308	8.8	0.585	0.557	0.538	0.552
11 9	Pittsburgh Steelers 	15	5243	4510	35	29	733	-6	37.1	8.4	0.562	330	298	8.4	0.560	0.561	0.507	0.547
12 16	Kansas City Chiefs 	15	4748	4865	23	29	-117	6	14.3	7.9	0.524	296	285	7.8	0.522	0.523	0.493	0.516
13 13	Miami Dolphins 		15	4606	4226	24	26	380	2	39.7	8.5	0.566	238	256	6.9	0.457	0.512	0.524	0.515
14 17	St. Louis Rams 		15	5351	5069	18	30	282	12	71.5	9.3	0.619	326	360	6.6	0.441	0.530	0.462	0.513
15 15	Denver Broncos 		15	4626	4863	27	29	-237	2	-11.8	7.2	0.480	296	279	8.0	0.535	0.508	0.529	0.513
16 14	Minnesota Vikings 	15	4650	4387	30	36	263	6	45.9	8.6	0.577	261	286	6.7	0.446	0.511	0.480	0.503
17 12	New York Giants 	15	4859	5086	28	26	-227	-2	-26.9	6.8	0.455	321	334	7.1	0.476	0.466	0.542	0.485
18 18	Atlanta Falcons 	15	4932	4932	19	25	0	6	24.0	8.1	0.540	275	304	6.6	0.441	0.490	0.449	0.480
19 19	New York Jets 		15	4625	5097	25	22	-472	-3	-51.3	6.2	0.414	293	292	7.5	0.502	0.458	0.498	0.468
20 20	Buffalo Bills 		15	4018	4946	26	23	-928	-3	-89.3	5.3	0.351	293	292	7.5	0.502	0.427	0.556	0.459
21 25	Tennessee Titans 	15	4468	5105	23	25	-637	2	-45.1	6.4	0.425	301	360	5.9	0.396	0.410	0.556	0.447
22 22	Carolina Panthers 	15	4610	4440	27	20	170	-7	-13.8	7.2	0.477	239	284	6.0	0.399	0.438	0.471	0.446
23 23	Green Bay Packers 	15	5085	4818	32	27	267	-5	2.3	7.6	0.504	275	359	5.2	0.347	0.425	0.476	0.438
24 24	Seattle Seahawks 	15	4633	4998	33	24	-365	-9	-66.4	5.8	0.389	312	334	6.9	0.460	0.425	0.458	0.433
25 21	Washington Redskins 	15	4850	5333	15	12	-483	-3	-52.3	6.2	0.413	279	342	5.7	0.382	0.397	0.516	0.427
26 26	Arizona Cardinals 	15	4556	5204	29	32	-648	3	-42.0	6.5	0.430	294	362	5.7	0.379	0.405	0.467	0.420
27 29	Houston Texans 		15	4286	5094	24	19	-808	-5	-87.3	5.3	0.354	253	360	4.5	0.302	0.328	0.529	0.379
28 28	Detroit Lions 		15	4587	5165	38	26	-578	-12	-96.2	5.1	0.340	266	367	4.8	0.318	0.329	0.524	0.378
29 27	San Francisco 49ers 	15	4500	5182	31	24	-682	-7	-84.8	5.4	0.359	272	389	4.5	0.300	0.329	0.489	0.369
30 32	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 	15	4034	4927	30	19	-893	-11	-118.4	4.5	0.303	204	330	3.6	0.242	0.272	0.542	0.340
31 30	Cleveland Browns 	15	3927	5338	39	26	-1411	-13	-169.6	3.3	0.217	232	342	4.3	0.285	0.251	0.547	0.325
32 31	Oakland Raiders 	15	3730	4291	43	23	-561	-20	-126.8	4.3	0.289	165	309	2.8	0.184	0.237	0.542	0.313
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Per User:False Prophet's request, I'm including a weighted rating this week. Basically, I took the "Raw" rating (without the schedule adjustment) for each team and split it into the first half and the second half of the season. Then, I weighed the 2nd-half rating five times as heavily as that of the 1st-half. Of course, the aim was to get the Tennessee Titans to appear higher on the list, but it really didn't work all that well -- they're still at #18 in the weighted rankings, and #16 over the second half of the season. Why? They keep winning close (read: lucky) games. Despite winning six straight, only the first win of that streak was by more than a TD, and three have come by 3 points or less -- so while the Titans are a feel-good story, history tells us that teams who continually squeak out wins will eventually see luck go against them and fall back to earth. Just look at this year's Colts for an example: they posted 9 straight wins to open the season... many of which were by 3 points or less. The pundits fawned over them then, but now those same "experts" are looking for answers as to why Indy has lost 4 of its last 6... Have the Colts suddenly gotten worse? Of course not. They've played the same (except in that 44-17 dismantling by Jacksonville), but the luck just hasn't been there for them in close games. Similarly, the Titans' recent run of good fortune will eventually come to a screeching halt. Are they at least a good team now? Sure, they're above average. But are they a Top-10 team? Absolutely not. They're morally a .525 team that has been fortunate to win six consecutive games. Anyway, I digress -- the weighted rankings are below, as are the rankings if we look at the second half alone...

Team			1stH	2ndH	Rank   Weighted	Rank
---------------------------------------------------------------
Baltimore Ravens 	0.705	0.779	1	0.767	1
New Orleans Saints 	0.570	0.758	2	0.727	2
San Diego Chargers 	0.827	0.682	4	0.706	3
Jacksonville Jaguars 	0.604	0.700	3	0.684	4
New England Patriots 	0.750	0.626	5	0.647	5
Chicago Bears 		0.893	0.565	10	0.620	6
Philadelphia Eagles 	0.659	0.593	7	0.604	7
Indianapolis Colts 	0.682	0.565	11	0.585	8
Dallas Cowboys 		0.694	0.557	13	0.580	9
Miami Dolphins 		0.415	0.610	6	0.578	10
Cincinnati Bengals 	0.538	0.572	8	0.566	11
Pittsburgh Steelers 	0.559	0.563	12	0.562	12
New York Jets 		0.377	0.571	9	0.539	13
Kansas City Chiefs 	0.523	0.526	15	0.526	14
St. Louis Rams 		0.570	0.495	18	0.508	15
Buffalo Bills 		0.271	0.552	14	0.505	16
Minnesota Vikings 	0.524	0.501	17	0.505	17
Tennessee Titans 	0.279	0.525	16	0.484	18
Denver Broncos 		0.598	0.457	22	0.481	19
Carolina Panthers 	0.395	0.487	19	0.472	20
Arizona Cardinals 	0.339	0.477	20	0.454	21
Seattle Seahawks 	0.384	0.464	21	0.451	22
Green Bay Packers 	0.425	0.422	24	0.423	23
San Francisco 49ers 	0.231	0.443	23	0.408	24
Atlanta Falcons 	0.632	0.362	27	0.407	25
Washington Redskins 	0.409	0.387	26	0.391	26
Houston Texans 		0.260	0.390	25	0.368	27
New York Giants 	0.655	0.298	29	0.358	28
Detroit Lions 		0.347	0.314	28	0.320	29
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 	0.268	0.276	30	0.275	30
Cleveland Browns 	0.299	0.216	32	0.230	31
Oakland Raiders 	0.255	0.222	31	0.228	32
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Oh, and here are the odds on Week 17's games:

A-B	Team A%	Team B%	OddsA	Home	A	B	Favorite
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WSH-NYG	0.427	0.485	44.2%	3.8%	47.9%	52.1%	Giants
NO-CAR	0.619	0.446	66.9%	3.8%	70.6%	29.4%	New Orleans
HOU-CLE	0.379	0.325	55.9%	3.8%	59.6%	40.4%	Houston
DAL-DET	0.587	0.378	70.0%	3.8%	73.8%	26.2%	Dallas
KC-JAX	0.516	0.624	39.1%	3.8%	42.9%	57.1%	Jacksonville
TEN-NE	0.447	0.640	31.3%	3.8%	35.0%	65.0%	New England
NYJ-OAK	0.468	0.313	65.9%	3.8%	69.6%	30.4%	Jets
CIN-PIT	0.552	0.547	50.5%	3.8%	54.3%	45.7%	Cincinnati
TB-SEA	0.340	0.433	40.3%	3.8%	44.0%	56.0%	Seattle
MIN-STL	0.503	0.513	49.0%	3.8%	52.7%	47.3%	Minnesota
PHI-ATL	0.592	0.480	61.1%	3.8%	64.9%	35.1%	Philadelphia
BAL-BUF	0.677	0.459	71.2%	3.8%	74.9%	25.1%	Baltimore
IND-MIA	0.595	0.515	58.0%	3.8%	61.8%	38.2%	Indianapolis
SD-ARZ	0.679	0.420	74.5%	3.8%	78.2%	21.8%	San Diego
DEN-SF	0.513	0.369	64.3%	3.8%	68.1%	31.9%	Denver
CHI-GB	0.655	0.438	70.9%	3.8%	74.6%	25.4%	Chicago
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Well, until next week, be safe and have a Happy New Year. I'll leave you with a picture of Pean's dream destination...

Use those odds wisely!

Davis21wylie's Week 16 NFL Team Rankings

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