Davis21wylie's MLB Team Rankings (May 29, 2007)
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by user Davis21wylie
Since Dan's going with a wisdom-of-crowds type of power ranking, I thought I'd let you see what the stats say about the pecking order of MLB teams.
Just like in my NFL and NHL rankings, I'm using the old standby of the Pythagorean Expectation to formulate my rankings -- but with a twist! Actual runs scored/allowed will comprise 25% of the formula, but 75% will be based on Runs Created/allowed for every team, to get an even better sense of each team's true ability. The resulting Pyth% is then adjusted for strength of schedule, normalizing each team to a .500 opponent's winning percentage. Here are the rankings:
Another cool thing we can do with our "true winning percentages" is to predict the final standings. If we assume that each team plays at their "true" ability level for the rest of the season (unadjusted for SOS, though, because not all teams play .500 opponents), the standings should look something like this at the end of the season:
Cool stuff, if I do say so myself. I don't know how frequently I'll post these in the future, but for now, enjoy!
