Dave's Dime Week 1!
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by Kingsrule41
Dave's Dime
"Because Two Cents Just Isn't Enough"
THE INTRO
"Because Two Cents Just Isn't Enough"
THE INTRO
((I spend a lot of time typing this up every week, mainly for the enjoyment of my readers. If you are receiving this email, it is because I feel like you will have a good time reading it. This is not meant to be spam mail. You will only receive 1 email from me a week. If you want to be taken off the list, let me know... but its much better for my pride if you just delete it every week and let me think that you kinda care. Thanks!))
Bread and Butter.
Peanut Butter and Jelly.
Raiders and Losing.
DAVE'S DIME and FOOTBALL.
Some things just go together oh-so-smoothly, and in David Consolazio's imaginary world, I add my column and football onto that elite list. To some of you (maybe like 4 of you?), the Dime is an important and fun part of every week. To some of you (15?), the Dime is something you will tolerate because of our friendship. Others (38) simply skim, while still others (113) just delete as soon as they receive. And, of course, a couple of you (568) are still wondering who the hell I am.
To recap/refresh/inform, each week I will be picking the winners of the week's games with and without the spread, and giving witty/boring/in-depth/absurd commentary as to why I believe what I do. You don't have to be a football fan to enjoy this. Or you may be a football fan and NOT enjoy it. That's the great thing about reading, you just never know! (Actually, that's the sucky thing about reading, which is why I don't read much. But I probably shouldn't be broadcasting that...)
The first week of the year is virtually always a crap shoot. I don't have any stats to crunch (Preseason? PRESEASON? You kidding me?), so I'm most inclined to just pick favorites. Of course most favorites haven't really found their "groove" yet, so they are more likely to be upset. See the predicament I find myself in?
So whether you are a Dime veteran or a Dime rookie, hopefully you enjoy my return! And remind yourself often; it is free. That's really my excuse for everything.
"Your picks suck!" - True, but they are free.
"Your column sucks!" - True, but it is free.
"You suck!" - True, but... wait, that's not very nice!
THE RECORD
2006 Season
With the spread: 126 - 121 - 9 (.510)
Without the spread: 154 - 102 - 0 (.602)
$$Money Picks$$: 27 - 30 - 1 (.474)
^^Zen Picks^^: 24 - 22 - 2 (.522)
**Outright Upsets**: 36 - 33 - 0 (.522)
Without the spread: 154 - 102 - 0 (.602)
$$Money Picks$$: 27 - 30 - 1 (.474)
^^Zen Picks^^: 24 - 22 - 2 (.522)
**Outright Upsets**: 36 - 33 - 0 (.522)
2005 Season
With the spread: 138 - 111 - 7 (.554)
Without the spread: 167 - 89 - 0 (.652)
$$Money Picks$$: 33 - 22 - 5 (.600)
^^Zen Picks^^: 27 - 13 - 1 (.675)
Without the spread: 167 - 89 - 0 (.652)
$$Money Picks$$: 33 - 22 - 5 (.600)
^^Zen Picks^^: 27 - 13 - 1 (.675)
This is the section where I list my total record as the season progresses.
With the spread: 0 - 0 - 0 (.000)
Without the spread: 0 - 0 - 0 (.000)
$$Money Picks$$: 0 - 0 - 0 (.000)
^^Zen Picks^^: 0 - 0 - 0 (.000)
With the spread: 0 - 0 - 0 (.000)
Without the spread: 0 - 0 - 0 (.000)
$$Money Picks$$: 0 - 0 - 0 (.000)
^^Zen Picks^^: 0 - 0 - 0 (.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 0 - 0 - 0 (.000)
With the Spread - I will explain in detail what the spread means for those of you who do not know in THE PICKS section.
Without the Spread - Who I pick to win the game, outright.
$$Money Picks$$ - Picks that I absolutely love. If you use my email as a gambling guide (God help you), these are the picks that I whole-heartedly endorse. There can be zero, five, or any other number of these a week, depending on the games. They will be pointed out with money signs ($).
^^Zen Picks^^ - Last year, I grabbed a book called "The Zen of Gambling", which gives you a bunch of philosophical views on picking games that prove more often then not to actually work. A pick that I use a carrot symbol on (^) is one that I would have picked the other way if I weren't "enlightened" by the Zen book.
**Outright Upsets** - When I take the underdog to not only cover the spread but to actually win the game, too. These picks will have a (*) next to them.
LAST WEEK'S RECAP OF DAVE'S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Usually Foolishness)
This is the section where I go over the results of the previous week, gloating about how smart I am when I get it right, or whining about how stupid the teams are when I get it wrong. Obviously the section empty this week, since no pro football was played.
DAMN, I'M GOOD
Here, on the once-in-a-lifetime occurrence that a pick is dead on, or I get a really crazy upset pick right, I will quote the previous week's Dime, and point out how good I am. Classy? Absolutely not. But since when is classy in my repertoire?
THE PICKS
And where would we be without actually picking some winners?
(Usually Foolishness)
This is the section where I go over the results of the previous week, gloating about how smart I am when I get it right, or whining about how stupid the teams are when I get it wrong. Obviously the section empty this week, since no pro football was played.
DAMN, I'M GOOD
Here, on the once-in-a-lifetime occurrence that a pick is dead on, or I get a really crazy upset pick right, I will quote the previous week's Dime, and point out how good I am. Classy? Absolutely not. But since when is classy in my repertoire?
THE PICKS
And where would we be without actually picking some winners?
*Here is the layout of my picks, and an explanation of how the spread works. Veteran readers can skip ahead to THE REAL THING!, but first timers or forgetful people should read on. Don't worry if you're confused at first, it will make sense as time goes on. Still, I'll do my best to explain.*
TEAM ONE (+6.5) @ TEAM TWO (-6.5)
The team on the left side is always on the road, and the team on the right side is always at home. I will use this area to provide commentary as to why I'm picking who I'm picking. The number in parenthesis is called "The Spread". This is how Las Vegas makes money. If you could bet on any two teams on an even playing field, you could always take the favorite, and you would win quite often. With the spread, things are evened out a bit. If you take the weaker team (in this case team one), you are going to be given X amount of points (in this case 6.5). So, lets say the final score to the game is "Team One" 7, "Team Two" 10. Team Two won the game, but not in Vegas terms. Add the 6.5 Vegas gave to Team One, and the score was "Team One" 13.5, "Team Two" 10. So, if you put money on Team Two, even though they won, they didn't win by enough to "cover the spread" (which means outscore Team One with the extra points), so you lost money. So when you take the underdog (the team with the extra points), you add those points to their final total. If you take the favorite, you have to subtract number X from your total (So in the 10 - 7 game, minus 6.5, Team Two loses 3.5 - 7). The reason numbers usually have .5's on them is so there can not be a tie. If you're still confused, don't worry, it'll clear up. If you got it, well done!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: TEAM TWO (-6.5) <In this example, I'm willing to give up 6.5, I think Team Two will win big>
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: TEAM TWO (-6.5) <Obviously I think they will win the game period, too.>
THE REAL THING!
* - Indicates Upset Pick
$ - Indicates Money Pick
^ - Indicates Zen Pick
* - Indicates Upset Pick
$ - Indicates Money Pick
^ - Indicates Zen Pick
Let me just say that this was an excellently scheduled week 1. Very evenly matched, should provide for some great football early.
THURSDAY
New Orleans (+6.0) @ Indianapolis (-6.0)
Home and season opener for the team that just won the Super Bowl. Hmm, I wonder if that crowd will be psyched? Pumped? Amped? Probably not......... New Orleans made great strides last year but it is important to remember that this is still a young team. And while they do possess an explosive offense, it doesn't get a whole lot more explosive than Peyton Manning, does it? I'll be very interested to see how the Saints respond to being a favorite this year, as opposed to last year, when they had no expectations at all. But that's the big picture; in the small picture, the Colts win at home in what should be a blast of a game to watch.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
SUNDAY
Kansas City (+3.0) @ Houston (-3.0)
I'm not quite ready to jump on the Kansas City Sucks! Bandwagon. I mean, I hate them on a personal level, sure. But with Larry Johnson in the backfield, this team will always be a threat. Huard is no stud QB, but he has proven to be at least passable (no pun intended) at the position. In the tough AFC I don't believe the Chiefs are a playoff team by any means, but they should be able to beat up on a few of the weaker teams around. Houston swapping Schaub for Carr doesn't make the offensive line or the defense any better.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Kansas City
Denver (-3.0) @ Buffalo (+3.0)
Other than Pittsburgh, this is about as close to a lock this week as you are going to get. Buffalo is tough to play against at home, sure, but a simple equation (Terrible Offense VS. Excellent Defense = Trouble Scoring) makes me comfortable enough taking Denver in what should be a pathetic offensive showing all around.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver
Pittsburgh (-5.0) @ Cleveland (+5.0)
Charlie Frye was the smart albeit unpopular choice to make; Brady Quinn may have made the fans a little more excited, but let him get a feel for a few NFL games from the sidelines, first. The real question; does it matter? Pittsburgh has won 12 of the last 13 games they have played against this team, and have dominated them with and without the spread handily for years. Why should this year be any different?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
Tennessee (+6.5) @ Jacksonville (-6.5)
I think Tennessee is going to have a pretty bad team this year, having lost Bennett and Henry, and Vince Young is a prime candidate for a huge sophomore slump. That being said, I think after an entire offseason of Pacman Jones dr ama, this team is as focused and ready to play some football more than just about anyone else out there. Couple this with the fact that Jacksonville let go of Leftwich so close to the beginning of the season, and this one just might be that big upset this weekend.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tennessee
Carolina (+1.0) @ St. Louis (-1.0)
Two teams I really need to see play a few games this year before I get a feel for them. I'll take St. Louis for now though, since this offense just looks oh-so-deadly.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: St. Louis
Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Green Bay (+3.0)
I'm sorry, did I miss something? Last I checked, Philadelphia was pretty strong on both sides of the ball. Green Bay might have a decent season in the weak NFC, but Philly is one of the teams that will be tough to beat; and I think 3 points is an awfully soft spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
Atlanta (+3.0) @ Minnesota (-3.0)
Joey Harrington starting at quarterback for the Atlanta Falcons. Do I really, possibly have to say anything more than that?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota
Miami (+3.0) @ Washington (-3.0)
In my estimation, Miami is going to be a bad, bad football team this year. That's right; two bad's worth. Not that I think the world of Washington, but at home, this should be a pretty easy opener for them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington
New England (-6.5) @ New York Jets (+6.5)
The Patriots are not invincible, as the Colts exploited in the playoffs last year. Their once impeccable defense is now... umm... peccable. That being said, with their new and improved offense, they will, of course, be among the league's elite this year as well. I liked the Jets' run last season, but I can't validate picking against the Pats before the season has begun.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England
Tampa Bay (+6.0) @ Seattle (-6.0)
With the Rams, 49ers, and Cardinals all looking better these days, Seattle will have their work cut out for them this year. By this year, of course, I mean later this year. Tampa Bay is going to be just awful.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle
Chicago (+6.0) @ San Diego (-6.0)
In what was supposed to be the Super Bowl match-up last year, the Chargers will face off against the Bears and week 1. And in what would have been the result in the Super Bowl, the Chargers will win. Unfortunately for them, you don't get a ring and everlasting glory for week 1.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego
Detroit (+1.5) @ Oakland (-1.5)
All signs point to Detroit having a dangerous offense. That being said, amidst all the sucking the Raiders did last year, the defense - especially against the pass - has emerged as one of the league's best. Tack on the seemingly improved offense, and the Raiders just might have a winning record for the first time in 14 years (well, it has felt that long anyways).
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Oakland
New York Giants (+6.0) @ Dallas (-6.0)
Thanks to Eli Manning, whenever I see "New York Giants" I just have to shake my head in disgust. I don't believe Dallas is nearly as great as many people are saying they are, but they are cert ainly up to the task of winning this one big at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas
MONDAY
Baltimore (+3.0) @ Cincinnati (-3.0)
When put on the spot, Baltimore has been my early pick to go all the way this year. Needless to say, I think pretty highly of them. I like the Bengals a lot, but the Baltimore D is just too fierce; especially if you are giving me points, too.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Baltimore
Arizona (+3.0) @ San Francisco (-3.0)
Tough one. Both teams look improved, and both could potentially do some damage this year. But until Arizona can show me that they can actually be comfortable with winning; instead of going out of their way to lose every week; I'll have to keep picking against them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco
THE COLLEGE NICKEL
RECORD: 0 - 0 - 0 (.000)
<In this section I list my top 5 plays of the week in college football (5, nickel, get it?). Since I explain each of these picks in depth in my youtube videos (link listed at the bottom of the column!), I'll just list the picks here instead of typing up the commentary and repeating myself (as if once isn't bad enough, right?)>
1. Michigan (-9.0) over Oregon
2. Texas Christian (+10.0) over Texas
3. Arizona State (-15.0) over Colorado
4. Hawaii (-28.0) over Louisiana Tech
5. Washington State (-14.0) over SD State
HONORABLE MENTION (0 - 0 - 0): <Picks I like, but didn't make the Top 5>
1. Nebraska (-8.5) over Wake Forest
2. Oregon State (-3.5) over Cincinnati
3. California (-14.0) over Colorado State
4. Penn State (-17.5) over Notre Dame
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Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!
Also check out my video predictions on youtube!
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=kingsrule41" title="http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=kingsrule41">http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=kingsrule41</a>
MY TEAM'S RECORDS
OAKLAND RAIDERS: 0 - 0 - 0
USC TROJANS: 1 - 0 - 0
LOS ANGELES KINGS: 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
OAKLAND RAIDERS: 0 - 0 - 0
USC TROJANS: 1 - 0 - 0
LOS ANGELES KINGS: 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
