Daryl Morey and the NBA Middle Class
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" The Rockets have a mid-level exception available, meaning they can offer a free agent a contract that could start at about a measly $5.5 million for next season. (It's disgusting, I know, but for a league with an average salary of around $5 million per year, 5½ mil is middle class.) The Rockets have wisely decided they are not willing to use that entire allotment on any of the players available, save maybe for Darko Milicic, who is expecting to receive a much higher offer anyway."- Houston Chronicle: 7/10/07
In what was considered the first "Moneyball" step for basketball, the Rockets hired MIT graduate Daryl Morey to be their assistant GM, with the promise that he could take over for Carroll Dawson after the season. To the surprise of many Rockets fans, Morey has kept a very low profile this offseason. He traded Juwan Howard for Mike James, rectifying Dawson's original mistake of trading him for brick machine Rafer Alston. He purchased the 31st and 57th overall picks in the draft from the Sonics and Magic, respectively, and drafted Aaron Brooks, Carl Landry, and Brad Newly. The Brooks pick surprised a lot of people, but seemed to signal that either combo guard Luther Head or the aforementioned Alston would be sent packing. But most surprisingly, for a team that was widely considered so close to the top tier last year, Morey hasn't spent a dime in free agency yet.
The Rockets are over the salary cap anyway, but with the midlevel exception available, most expected them to add someone to replace Howard, like perhaps flop machine Anderson Varejao. But, Morey has taken a page from his MBA and has decided not to chase what he feels like are replaceable assets.
It doesn't take much research to find that the vast majority of NBA contracts that are handed out are busts, but the success rate for players making the midlevel may be even smaller than that. The Knicks signed Jerome James and Jared Jeffries to the mid-level exception in back-to-back years. James barely even got off the bench last year, and Jeffries was a complete zero on offense. The Rockets gave Stromile Swift the mid-level before moving him back to Memphis, and he made so many mental errors that Jeff Van Gundy wouldn't even play him.
When you look at the very top of the Western Conference heap: San Antonio, Phoenix, and Dallas, they've each managed to build a team with three stars, including one super-star. Nowitzki has Terry and Howard, Nash has Marion and Stoudemire, and Duncan has Parker and Ginobli. A grand total of two of these players came from free agency; Nash hopped to Phoenix prior to the rule changes that made it impossible to guard him, when Mark Cuban decided he didn't want to go six years with him. Terry came over from the Hawks for Antoine Walker and Tony Delk; the Hawks are still searching for a point guard to replace him from this transaction that happened just under three years ago. Included in this? Using the midlevel exception on Speedy Claxton, who shot 32% from the field last year.
Well, the Rockets have two super-stars: Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady. Their third-best player, Shane Battier, is essentially a role player. What Morey appears to have decided, rightly or wrongly, is that it's better to pick and choose your spots in free agency; adding another good role player isn't enough to compete with the top three teams, what the Rockets need is a third star. Notice that despite the Rockets having no cap-space, he was on Rashard Lewis' door the minute free agency started.
Rockets fans seem to be asking what the "plan" is for power forward. It doesn't seem like Morey cares what the plan is for power forward this year, he's long-term oriented, and he's looking for a star. He seems more than willing to scrounge around the trash heap for more guys like Chuck Hayes rather than bring in a veteran like Joe Smith if it's going to cost a lot of money.
