Cullen Trade Raises More Questions Than Answers
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So the Rangers traded Matt Cullen back to Carolina yesterday for a bag of pucks. Conventional wisdom says that it was a cap clearing move. Call me old fashioned, but to me, one of the signs of a good transaction is that it solidifies some area of the team. The Cullen trade doesn't seem to do that. Not yet anyway.
Some are speculating that this move is the precursor for a future move. That may well be the case, but not necessarily. The Rangers had too many forwards up front, this trade may have been made to simply make room for the players already here. If, however, the Cullen trade is just the beginning, what does Slats have up his sleeve? A lot of questions, let's try to answer them one at a time:
1. Was Cullen traded to make room for players already on the roster?
I wouldn't discount this possibility at all. Assuming the Rangers resign Avery and Hossa, they had too many guys up front. Take a look at what the line combinations may have looked like prior to the Cullen trade:
Hossa Gomez Jagr
Avery Drury Shanahan
Prucha Cullen Callahan
Hollweg Betts Orr
What about Straka? The Rangers could have inserted him at the wing. But where? The most logical choice would be to replace Hossa with Straka on the first line. But then where do you put Hossa? Hossa only started to show signs of life when playing with Jagr. Hossa will be ineffective anywhere else. Hossa is also one of Tom Renney's favorite projects, so I'm not sure the Coach will remove Marcel from Jagr's wing.
No matter which way you slice it, the Rangers had too many offensively inclined wingers to fit on the roster. Someone would be the odd man out, but who? The Rangers could have solved the problem by walking away from Hossa, but again, I think Renney and company believe in this kid's package of size and skill way too much to do that.
The Rangers could have presumably fixed the "problem" by trading away Straka or Prucha. However, with the departure of Nylander, it's unlikely that the Rangers would trade Jagr's #2 man. Prucha, on the other hand, is definitely tradeable but he has that combination of skill, tenacity and small cap charge that shouldn't just be thrown away to make room for an old guy like Straka or a huge question mark like Hossa.
So, perhaps the Rangers traded Cullen to solve their traffic jam up front. Here's what the lines might look like now:
Hossa Straka Jagr
Avery Gomez Shanahan
Prucha Drury Callahan
Hollweg Betts Orr
You can play with these combinations any way you'd like :move Avery in the middle and Straka back to the wing. Flip the centers around, etc... The bottom line here is that after last season the Rangers acknowledged that they needed to strengthen themselves at the center ice position. Having Straka (not a natural centerman) playing center ice was not a positive.
At the end of the day, the Rangers brought in two natural centermen (Gomez and Drury) but now, they've also let go of two natural centermen (Nylander and Cullen)! What was the point?!? Yes, Gomez and Drury are definitely upgrades over Nylander and Cullen, but we're still going to see a natural winger playing center ice on one of the top lines.
2. Will Cullen's spot be filled from within?
So far, we've got more questions than answers! But wait, there's more! Some are speculating that the Rangers will fill Cullen's spot from within. Perhaps Brandon Dubinsky or Artem Anisimov will get a shot. However, by doing so the Rangers will have the same jam at the wing they had before the Cullen trade! Additionally, does anyone really believe that the Rangers will be going on their Cup run with a rookie (and a relatively unheralded one at that) playing a significant role on one of the top three lines?
3. Was Cullen traded as a precursor to another move(s)?
Others are speculating that perhaps a guy like Michael Peca is on the way. Yes he can most probably be signed for significantly less than Cullen was making. However, what about his serious injury problems? What about the fact that by bringing him in the team will again have an excess of wingers up front? Is an injury prone Michael Peca an upgrade over Matt Cullen?
Cullen displayed great chemistry with Prucha and Callahan at the end of the season. That line played great "playoff style" hockey. Did management really break them up to save a whopping $1m in cap space by signing a cheaper replacement? Would Slats break up the chemistry of a great "energy" line just to save $1m?
Then there's the never ending speculation that the Rangers are targeting a guy like Ed Jovanovski in Phoenix. Some speculate that Cullen was traded to make room for Jovo Cop's huge salary. This speculation is no doubt fueled by the fact that former Ranger assistant G.M Don Maloney is now the G.M. of the Coyotes. Additionally, the Coyotes have a huge hole in net while the Rangers most attractive trading chip happens to be a young blue chip goaltending prospect named Al Montoya.
But does Jovanovski make sense for the Blueshirts? He's a guy that has missed 20-30 games per year for the last 4 seasons due to injury. According to tsn.ca he didn't play at all during the lockout. A full season off to rest his injury prone body. Yet in 2005-06, despite having a full years rest, he played in only 44 games. In 2006-07 he managed just 54 games. If I were slats, I wouldn't even think about letting go of Blue Chip Al for Jovanovski. Nor would I consider moving Prucha for Jovanovski. Why on earth would the Rangers tie up $6m in cap space for a guy who will miss close to 1/2 the regular season and possibly the playoffs as well? B
y the way, don't forget about next year: All of the Rangers veteran defenseman will be Unrestricted Free Agents (Tyutin will be a Restricted Free Agent). The Rangers will literally have to restock the blue line. Lundqvist is going to be a $6m man as well. The Rangers will have over $25m invested in just 4 players (Drury, Gomez, Jagr and Lundqvist). The cap situation will be tight. If the Rangers are to trade Montoya (which I do believe they will) they should be looking to get some good young player(s) in return.
Someone who doesn't yet have UFA leverage and is still playing on the cheap. Adding Jovanovski would mean that the team will have over $30m invested in just 5 players (one of which will need to be replaced half the time due to injury), it just will not work.
4. The bottom line:
My gut feeling is that a significant trade is coming. Perhaps not right away, but eventually. Barring a serious injury to Lundqvist, I think Montoya is a goner. I also think Prucha may very well be out the door. Although I love the kid and would hate to see him traded, I think that Slats & Co. genuinely believe in this team's chances to win it all and I believe that they're gunning for it. To seriously compete, however, more holes need to be addressed. Since the team has an excess of wingers, it's not unreasonable to expect that one of them will be moved. Prucha's skill, age and relatively low cap charge make him one of the more attractive trading chips the Rangers have. Additionally, the team may feel that Prucha is expendable because they've got Nigel Dawes and Alex Bourret in the system (FYI, Dawes is listed on The Rangers roster on the team's official website). Again, I would hate to see Prucha traded... unless we got back a good young player who fills a need. Jovanovski is NOT that player. For now, the Cullen trade raises a lot of questions and provides answers to none of them. Stay tuned!
*UPDATE*
Here's a comment I posted in response to a reader. It rasies an interesting point that I want people to see and respond to (just in case you're not reading the comments to the main post):
"I don't see Straka being the right fit at center for a true cup contender. Straka is only productive with Jagr. Period. He was a "has been" before joining Jagr back in NY a few years ago. If you don't agree, look at last seasons stats: prior to Avery joining the club, Straka played 53 games primarily on Jagr's left wing. He scored 58 points. After Avery's arrival, Atraka went to the middle with Shanahan and Avery. In 24 games, Straka scored only 12 points. In the playoffs, Straka scored 10 points in 10 games. Not bad at all, right? Maybe it just took some time for Straka to blend with his new linemates, right? Wrong. Of his 10 points, 7 of them came with Jagr and Nylander (mostly on the power play, a few at even strangth). He combined with Avery and Shanny very few times in the playoffs. Avery and Shanny are better point producers than Prucha and Calahan. If Straka can't score with the former, can we expect him to do so with the latter? Should a team trying to win it all take that chance? Remeber, if Straka doesn't work on the third line, you not only hurt Straka, you hurt the entire third line."
Let me know what you think.
**UPDATE**
Here's an interesting piece of info: Sam Weinman reports of talk that Darius Kasparitis has gotten himself back into game shape and is focused on making it back to Broadway. Kaspar's cap charge is $2.989m while Cullen's was $2.875m. Was Cullen moved to make room for a d-man? Could that d-man's name be Darius Kasparitis? Wow!
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