Covering the Spread: The Recap
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by InterMat
Here's a recap of the "Covering the Spread" picks from this past weekend. Honestly, I'm not pleased with a 1-3 outcome on games with more than a 35-point spread. In case you're wondering, no I hope none of you bet on these games. It should be noted that the day's (and the year's) biggest upset did NOT have a line/odds. Appalachian State vs. Michigan was "off the board." FIU gets the "logo nod" for actually holding up their end of the bargain, losing with the points.
Prediction: Oklahoma 40, North Texas 3
Pick: North Texas covers
Line: Oklahoma by 40.5
Actual: Oklahoma 79, North Texas 10
Outcome: LOSS
Thoughts: I was hoping North Texas would continue their somewhat trend of beating the spread, but OU does have a habit of running it up against lesser opponents in season openers -- and trips where recruits come into town. Memo to North Texas Coach Tim Dodge ... yeah that high school stuff might work against Permian, but not the Sooners. Part of me wanted to really think the Sooners were going to pound the "Mean Green" into "Soilent Green" ... and that part of me was right. Unfortunately, I thought -- for some ungodly reason -- the team formerly known as the Eagles would cover a big spread. If the spread were 50+ ... I have no doubt North Texas would have scored the points necessary to cover. So to recap, 50-point spreads mean North Texas would have covered, but they only got 40.5, so they got blown out.
Prediction: Penn State 55, Florida International 6
Pick: Penn State covers
Line: Penn State by 38.5
Actual: Penn State 59, FIU 0
Outcome: WIN
Thoughts: This one was so predictable, it was the only "sure thing" in the big spread games of the day. Perhaps I gave FIU too much credit. The Golden Panthers had only one scoring opportunity, a missed field goal from 29 yards in the second quarter. Still looking for a reason that a team in the South Beach area can suck so badly, oh wait ... it's in South Beach.
Prediction: Texas 69, Arkansas State 3
Pick: Texas Covers Line: Texas by 39
Actual: Texas 21, Arkansas State 13
Outcome: LOSS
Thoughts: ... seriously, I have nothing good to say about this. Arkansas State isn't even known for anything. Hell, Scottie Pippen went to NAIA Central Arkansas. So after the Razorbacks, Arkansas State isn't even the most known athletic program in the state. Aren't the Beverly Hillbillies from Arkansas?
Prediction: USC 56, Idaho 7
Pick: USC Covers
Line: USC by 45
Actual: USC 38, Idaho 10
Outcome: LOSS
Thoughts: We figured Pete Carroll might take it easy on the Vandals and he did so, but even while taking it easy, 55-10 could have been attainable. USC, you let me down.
Just for those that were wondering ... here was the weekend spread (http://www.armchairgm.com/index.php?title=Covering_the_Spread:_The_big_%E2%80%9Cdogs%E2%80%9D_this_week_in_college_football) "prognostication" (I just wanted to use a big word).
2007-08 RECORD: 1-3
