Corey's 2006 NBA Finals Breakdown
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by user Coreyisarealboy
We're finally here. The NBA Finals. The culmination of six months worth of playoffs. OK, so I exaggerated. But it does seem like it's been that long since my Bucks were still playing ball, which, ironically, isn't too far off by any stretch of the imagination.
Personally, I'm pleased with this year's combatants, if only for the simple reason that had the Suns reached the Finals, it would've completely justified Steve Nash's second straight MVP. Don't get me wrong, I have the utmost respect for him, but I think we can all agree that Kobe and LeBron meant a little more to their team's success. By telling me that Steve Nash is the key to success on the Suns, the MVP voters are telling me that Shawn Marion is on the same level as Kwame Brown and Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Exactly.
But that's an argument for mid-May, not June.
And, had the Pistons advanced, the Eastern representative would've been completely lacking a compelling player with the capability of captivating viewers. Sheed comes close in emotion, but the Pistons don't "go as Rasheed goes" the way the Suns, Mavs, and Heat do with Nash, Dirk, and Wade.
So who wins now? Let's break it down:
Momentum
Both teams are coming off nothing less than impressive six game series victories. Both teams had to overcome rather large obstacles in their last games, the Mavs' 18-point deficit and the Heat with Wade's illness. What was strange about the Eastern Semis is that not once the entire series did I think the Pistons had a chance.
After the first round, I incorrectly predicted that the Pistons would win the title. After they dominated the Bucks, I was sold. However, what happened in the following two series left me scratching my head.
How could a team (and a coach--Flip Saunders' Timberwolves never allowed a high amount of points during his tenure either) known for its defense have such an utter defensive breakdown in the East Finals? By the complacency they showed in the Miami series, I can only offer one explanation.
The Pistons played a team in the first round with a few decent scoring options but one that played no defense. If they contained Michael Redd enough, the others will miss enough shots that he won't be able to compensate, and all the Pistons had to do was make the open shots they were going to get. Done.
In the second round, the Pistons faced a team with one major scoring option. Contain LeBron, they contain the Cavs. After taking their mighty sweet time in doing so, they almost dropped the ball in the series. Alas, in Games 6 and 7, they shut LeBron down, and nobody else on the Cavs could hit shots. They didn't need the offense to come through.
Finally, against Miami, they encountered a team that had plenty of rest and time to prepare, whereas they were coming off a grueling seven game series with arguably the best player in the game. In the Heat, they had to stop several scoring options, evidenced by the uncanny series Jason Williams had. All-in-all, the Pistons seemed unprepared and outmatched in every aspect of the series, and by Game 6 they didn't seem like the team that had won a league-high 64 games.
The Eastern Semis is what did them in. They weren't prepared to face such a rested and imposing Miami squad. By the time they needed offense, nobody was able to contribute, and Miami beat them at their own game.
The Mavs, on the other hand, beat a Suns team that had injuries to deal with. Amare was already out (which is a testament to how good Nash and Marion are) and Raja Bell just wasn't himself with that torn calf muscle. Not like it would've mattered any, but the series probably would've went seven games had the Suns been entirely healthy.
The Mavs win would've been impressive under any other circumstances, but it just doesn't live up to its billing. Sort of like when Simple Plan covered Bad Religion's "American Jesus;" they did a decent job, but you always have that realization that it's a Canadian pop band covering one of punk's all-time greatest anthems.
Advantage: Heat
Superstars
Many people are saying that Udonis Haslem will be the "X-Factor" (which will be discussed later) because he will be given the David vs. Goliath-like task of guarding Dirk. But it's just not possible at this point. Dirk scored 23 and 27 points in the Mavs' two very convincing wins over the Heat this season. They aren't eye-boggling numbers by any means, but with Dirk playing like a man possessed these playoffs, those totals could easily turn into 35 and 40. It's going to take a team effort from Haslem, Shaq, and Alonzo Mourning to even slow him down.
The Heat, on the other hand, have strength in numbers. Many people claim that Shaq's dominance is gone and point to the Ben Wallace block for proof. But Diesel averaged a double-double (21.7 points, 10.5 boards) against the supposed best defensive team in the league. Now, I'm certainly not saying that this is the same Shaq of old, but the fact still remains that he's going for another ring while other centers are sitting at home.
And really, what can you say about Dwyane Wade? Sure his scoring numbers with the flu don't quite compare to MJ's, but still he managed to dish out 10 assists. He still got the job done, but he needs to be healthy for the Finals, bottom line. The Mavs should be able to throw two to three guys at him at any given time, and they certainly aren't going to let him in the paint. With that said, we've all seen what he can do under attack (i.e. that acrobatic "reverse layup"), so chances are he'll do just fine.
Advantage: Heat
X-Factors
This is easy for the Mavs: Josh Howard. That 20-15 game he put up against the Suns in Game 6 says it all. Quite simply, when this guy contributes, the Mavs win.
As mentioned before, everyone seems to be tagging Haslem's defense as the Heat's X-Factor, but since I don't think there's any way to stop Nowitzki on offense, I'm going to tag Jason Williams as the X-Factor. Why? We saw how important he was in Game 6 when Wade was sick. If Wade is still not 100%, the ball will go through Williams that much more. The question now is "Can Williams light it up every game like he did in Game 6?" Probably not.
Advantage: Mavs
Supporting Cast
With a washed up Gary Payton off the bench, the Heat do not have many other options besides Antoine Walker. Haslem is a liability on the offensive end, but they need him in for defense. James Posey will get his points, but he's not a huge threat.
Conversely, the Mavs are filled with potential scorers in Jason Terry, Devin Harris, and Jerry Stackhouse, but for God's sake, keep Keith Van Horn off the court.
Advantage: Mavs
Other Factors
This category shouldn't be plural because there really is only one other factor: the divine presence of one, David Hasselhoff. Yes, he could be in Germany preparing to watch his soccer pals do battle in the World Cup, but no, he's in the States kickin' it with his boy, Dirk. When Hasselhoff is in the haus, anything can and will happen. The only way to get around this is if the Heat recruit some fine Miami Beach honeys to reenact one of the slow-motion scenes from Baywatch for distraction. For sheer unlikelihood of that happening, I'm sticking with Hasselhoff on this one.
Advantage: Mavs
Prediction
This is almost too close to call. The two teams match up incredibly evenly, and this will no doubt be one of the best NBA Finals in recent history. However, I don't think Haslem and the Heat can stop Dirk and Howard, and when they don't, it's going to be a "Stille Nacht" in Miami. Mavs in seven complete with a copious amount of tears from Night Rider himself.
Date
Thu 06/08/06, 12:51 pm EST
