Contrived? Yes. Exciting? You bet.
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by user J Cunningham
The Chase for the Nextel Cup is in its third season, and I can officially say I've turned a corner on it. When the head honchos over at NASCAR cooked up this 10-race playoff formula, I was skeptical, believing the system at the time worked fine, despite Matt Kensseth's runaway championship.
But Mike Helton decided he needed to spice things up, keep interest in the sport in September, October, and November--coincidentally, the three months NASCAR goes head-to-head against the NFL on TV.
Let's not kid ourselves, though; nobody--certainly not auto racing--is going to trump the NFL. Professional football is king on American television, and the sooner everyone realizes it, the better.
But after last Saturday night's thrilling, and somewhat shocking, Chevy Rock 'n' Roll 400 at Richmond, I'm finally willing to admit I'm down with the excitement the Chase for the Cup generates.
Is the formula contrived, designed to create excitement where otherwise there might not be? Of course.
But does it work? Damn straight it does.
Under the 10-race format, the top 10 in points are separated by just five points. So if Jeff Gordon were to end the 26th race of the season with a 250-point lead, all but five points of that would be gone. Under this formula, the 10th-place driver is only 45 points behind the leader.
And with 10 races to determine who takes home the big trophy, a 45-point cushion is nothing.
Most of the tracks in the Chase are the standard variety--anywhere from one to one-and-a-half miles in length--but two tracks will undoubtedly stand out: Talladega and Martinsville.
Talladega, the largest track in the Nextel Cup Series at 2.66 miles, is one of two places the cars runs horsepower-robbing restrictor plates, a package resulting in large packs of cars, often three-wide and 30 deep. Not only is this a recipe for exciting racing for the fans in the stands and on TV, but it's also a recipe for disaster for the drivers.
Those not in the know should look up the term "The Big One."
Martinsville, the shortest track on the Cup circuit at only 0.528 miles, is your typical short track. Lots of rubbing, lots of beating and banging, lots of torn-up sheet metal. Tempers are shorter than usual at a short track, meaning anyone at any point could just pop off and wreck someone.
And that someone could be a Chase contender.
So despite the glaring fact that the Chase was cooked up to create drama, it succeeds. Even if somneone runs away with the title in the last 10 races--the way Tony Stewart did last year--there's still enough drama in positions 2 though 10.
There's even drama to see who finishes 11th, because that lucky driver gets a cool $1 million and a seat at the awards banquet in New York City in December.
All of which equates to very happy sponsors.
But enough about how great this ultimately contrived formula is: who's going to win the 2006 Nextel Cup championship? I could be honest and tell you I don't know, but then this wouldn't be a very good opinion, now would it?
So instead, I'll break down each of the top 10 drivers, examining who has the best chance of all the Chasers.
1. Matt Kenseth: The 2003 champion is probably the least-noticed driver on account of his dry, boring personality. But there's no denying Kenseth's driving ability--or his team's talent in the pits. Don't overlook Kenseth, who is almost always strong at the 1.5-mile tracks.
But Talladega and Martinsville could be his pitfalls. He survives those, Kenseth has a great chance of winning the Cup.
2. Jimmie Johnson: The points leader for much of the regular season, Johnson has a lot going for him--most notably Daytona 500 and Brickyard 400 victories. But he's hit his annual slump before the Chase, and I wonder if he can bounce back from a series of unspectacular finishes.
He is going to a lot of tracks he's good at--most notably Lowe's, Martinsville, and Homestead--so if Chad Knaus can get the 48 bunch back in tow, I give Jimmie a great chance to win it all.
3. Kevin Harvick: We'll call Harvick--the winner at Richmond last Saturday night and polesitter for this weekend's Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire--Mr. Momentum, because that's on his side as the boys enter the Chase. The boy's been driving the wheels off the race car, no doubt about that.
Harvick could become the first driver ever to win the Cup and Busch Series titles in the same season. What a feat that would be.
4. Kyle Busch: The lesser evil of the two Busch brothers, Kyle certainly has the talent and the equipment to win the title, and a few tracks he runs well at, such as Phoenix and Dover, are on the schedule. But he's really young, and still gets rattled easily.
It wouldn't surprise me if Busch won the title, but it wouldn't surprise me if he finished 10th, either.
5. Denny Hamlin: The driver nobody expected to see in the Chase, Hamlin is the first rookie to qualify. Despite the inexperience, I give Hamlin a good shot, simply because nobody'll see it coming. He's got championship backing in Joe Gibbs Racing (and teammate Tony Stewart, who surprisingly isn't in this year's Chase field), so don't count the boy out.
No rookie has ever won a Cup championship.
6. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Rebounding nicely from missing the Chase last year, Earnhardt has reunited with crew chief Tony Eury Jr. While I like how the team runs on all kinds of tracks this year, I think the Budweiser team is still one year away.
He'll make some noise--especially at Talladega, Atlanta, and Phoenix--but Junior won't hoist the trophy until at least 2007.
7. Mark Martin: The sentimental favorite, the guy who's finished second in the points four times in his career. He'll likely hang 'em up after Haomestead, but there's nothing saying Martin can't win the title in his last full season.
He's got the talent, the car, and the team.
8. Jeff Burton: If NASCAR gave out a Comeback Driver of the Year award, I'd give it to this guy. Burton's had a resurgence of sorts this year in the No. 31 car, qualifying and running up front nearly every week...
...at least until the halfway point. Then things seem to go awry. Nice story, but Burton's not winning the Cup.
9. Jeff Gordon: Never count Gordon out of any championship chase. I realize he missed the Chase last year, and he's struggled of late, but when you put the trophy on the line, Gordon and the No. 24 team go at it.
There's a reason this guy's got four Cup trophies in his house.
10. Kasey Kahne: He leads the series in wins, yet had to race his way into the Chase. Between winning at California and finishing third at Richmond, Kahne also has momentum on his side. He's won at Atlanta, Texas, and Lowe's, all of which are on the Chase schedule.
His potential hang-ups? Talladega and Martinsville.
My Winner: Kevin Harvick.
Date
Fri 09/15/06, 8:06 pm EST
