College Football Preview: SEC West

by Kwinger 00

The sound of the marching band, the smell of autumn quickly approaching, the roar of 100,000 screaming fans dressed in their home team's colors, the sight of the ball gracefully spiraling through the air as it makes a beautiful arc in front of the clear blue sky...

It's here. Finally. College football is right around the corner. As usual, the season begins with many questions. Can anyone beat USC? How will Jimmy Clausen perform under the spotlight at Notre Dame? How will Indiana respond to the tragic loss of their leader Terry Hoeppner? Does Florida have a chance to repeat? Will Hawaii quarterback Colt Brennan put up similar astronomical numbers as last year? How will the Nick Saban-led Crimson Tide fare in his first season in Tuscaloosa? Can Florida State and Miami return to dominance? How will Virginia Tech bounce back after the tragic shooting? Who will be this year's Boise St. and Wake Forest? Is this the year of the Husker? Who will be this year's Heisman winner?

I will attempt to answer these questions and many more throughout my college football preview. I will be previewing and forecasting each of the six BCS conferences individually, as well as another preview for the rest of the conferences. I will be starting with the most sound conference in all the land, as well as the home of the defending champion Gators - the SEC. Since the SEC is so important, I will split up each division - West and East.

For each team, I will point out the most important information you should know. The most important factor in college football is the schedule. Each team plays only 12 games and must play the teams in their division (if the conference has divisions). Home field advantage becomes a weapon for most teams. Some teams decide to play FCS (formerly I-AA) teams for their non-conference, which can end up hurting them as the year winds down and BCS berths are on the line. Also, conferences rotate the schedules every year, so their could be a teams like Iowa and Indiana who don't play Ohio St. or Michigan this year, while Minnesota, Michigan St., Northwestern, Illinois, Purdue, Penn St., and Wisconsin have to play them both. Also, returning experience is a key ingredient to a successful season. There is a major difference between a true freshman and, say, a redshirt sophomore. A redshirt sophomore, for instance, is usually around 21 years old, has had a chance to develop physically, knows the system better, has practiced the system for two years, has been able to see the speed of the game first hand, and has had enough time to acclimate himself to the "college life." Familiarity with coaching personnel and styles will provide players a better understanding of what to expect when they are asked to play. Coaches recruit guys that they see will fit into their schemes. Therefore, new coaches tend to take 3-4 years before they start to turn a program around.

For each team, I will provide information on schedules (including sure wins, sure losses, and toss up games), returning experience, offensive stars, defensive stars, special teams, and the team's forecast (sunny, mostly sunny, partly sunny, mostly cloudy, cloudy) - clever, I know. I will also show you where the different preview magazines predicted the teams to finish.

With all that being said, anything can happen on any given Saturday. In the words of the great Chris Berman, "That's why they play the game."

Without further ado:

SEC WEST

1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. Arkansas
4. Auburn
5. Ole Miss
6. Mississippi St.

1. LSU

Magazine Predictions - 10 out of 11 pick LSU to finish first in SEC West. Jim Feist has them finishing 2nd behind Auburn.

They lose 1st Team All-SEC WR Dwayne Bowe and 1st Team All-SEC QB JaMarcus Russell on offense, and 1st Team All-American S LaRon Landry on defense, as well as first round draft pick WR Craig Davis (2nd Team All-SEC Returner). Although LSU lost some key players from last year, they return guys who are able to take the next step.

They return 2nd Team All-SEC TE Richard Dickson (S0) on offense, and 1st Team All-American DL Glenn Dorsey (Sr), 2nd Team All-SEC DL Tyson Jackson (Jr), and 2nd Team All-SEC OLB Ali Highsmith (Sr) on defense.

[1] Although they lose #1 pick JaMarcus Russell, fifth year senior Matt Flynn is going to make the best of his one year as a starter. This situation reminds me of the Tennessee team of 1998. Peyton Manning was supposed to lead the Vols to the "Promised Land" in 1997, only to lose to Florida (for the fifth time in a row) during the season. Then, during the Orange Bowl they lost to the eventual National Champion Nebraska Cornhuskers 42-17. Ranked #10 in the 1998 preseason under a new quarterback, junior Tee Martin, the Vols went 13-0 and defeated Florida St. in the Fiesta Bowl for the National Championship.

JaMarcus Russell, like Manning in '97, put up huge numbers last year. Flynn takes over as a dual threat QB who doesn't make many mistakes, much like Tee Martin. In his one career start, Flynn led LSU past Miami 40-3 in the Peach Bowl and was named Offensive MVP of the game. His career numbers (43-78, 689 yds, 10 TD, 2 INT) are slightly better than those of another LSU dual-threat quarterback. Matt Mauck's career numbers prior to 2003 (81-171, 1006, 9 TD, 4 INT). Mauck, who you might remember was the quarterback for LSU during their National Championship season in 2003 (Flynn's freshman year), only had played in 9 games prior to 2003. Flynn has played in 38.

WR Early Doucet will provide some cushion for the two receivers who were first round draft picks (Bowe, Davis). Also, keep an eye on converted RB Trindon Holliday. He's 5'5, 159 sophomore who is regarded as the fastest player in college football. He'll be playing WR and probably returning kicks and punts.

Schedule - They have 5 easy games on their schedule. Potential road traps are at Kentucky and at Alabama. LSU is tough at home but will be tested when they host Virginia Tech for the second game of the year and Florida on Oct. 6.

Sure Wins: 9
Sure Losses: 0
Toss-up Games: 3 (VT, Florida, at Alabama)

Forecast - Sunny. Very Sunny. The game at Alabama is the key. Florida is down this year and it's at home, and Virginia Tech will be tough but that game is also at home. Florida proved last year that you can still win a national championship if you lose a game in the SEC. If there is any team that can beat USC, I would pick someone from the SEC because of the speed and talent in the South. LSU would be the team to do it.

2. Alabama

Magazine Predictions - As high as second (2 votes) and as low as fourth (5 votes) with an average of fourth.

They lose their leading rusher Kenneth Darby and top two leading tacklers in SS Jeffrey Dukes and LB Juwan Simpson.

They return 2nd Team All-SEC C Antoine Caldwell (Jr) and 2nd Team All-SEC WR DJ Hall (Sr) on offense, and 1st Team All-SEC CB Simeon Castille (Sr) on defense.

[2] Nobody is sure what to think of Alabama. I'm sure new coach Nick Saban likes it that way. They have plenty of tools to work with and the schedule isn't bad, except for a trip to Florida St. on September 29.

Offensively, QB John Parker Wilson returns for his second year starting. He had a solid year last year throwing for 2707 yards and a 17-10 ratio, as well as rushing for 290 (net of 83). He should have plenty of weapons, including Hall and Tyrone Prothro. This should be one of the top receiving corps in the nation. They also return all 5 starting lineman from last year, including Caldwell at center. This should also be one of the top groups in the nation.

Defensively, their strength is their secondary, which is one of the best in the conference. Simeon Castille is the leader of the pack. They also welcome JUCO S Michael Ricks who could come and provide an immediate replacement for Jeffrey Dukes.

Both kicker Jamie Christensen (Sr) and punter PJ Fitzgerald (So) return.

Schedule - Alabama has six easy wins, including three conference games. However, the other five conference games are all tough (Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, LSU, at Auburn). Fortunately, only one of them is on the road. They should be able to win three or four of them, which would put their record at 6-2 or 7-1. It will be tough to win at Florida St, but the rest of the schedule is fine. Look for Alabama to surprise some teams this year and finish around 9-3 overall.

Sure Wins: 6
Sure Losses: 0
Toss-up Games: 6 (Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, LSU, at Auburn, at FSU)

Forecast - Mostly sunny. Alabama should be one of the most interesting teams this year. They could be a threat to diminish the hopes of some promising teams and compete for the West title.

3. Arkansas

Magazine Predictions - As high as second (3 votes) and as low as fourth (4 votes) with an average of third.

They lose 1st Team All-SEC OL Zac Tubbs, and 3rd Team All-American OL Tony Ugoh on offense, as well as 1st Team All-SEC DL Jamal Anderson, 1st Team All-SEC LB Sam Olajubutu, and 2nd Team All-SEC DB Chris Houston on defense.

[3] They return their most valuable player, and possibly the most valuable player to any team in the nation, 1st Team All-American RB Darren McFadden (Jr). On offense, they return 3rd Team All-American C Jonathan Luigs (Jr), as well as McFadden's backup and 2nd Team All-SEC RB Felix Jones (Jr). Defensively, 2nd Team All-SEC DE Antwain Robinson (Jr) returns.

Arkansas has had a lot of controversy throughout the summer. Only one of the heralded "Springdale Four" is left, TE Ben Cleveland. Houston Nutt's phone calls and text messaging fiasco. Offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn moved on. However, Arkansas still has Darren McFadden and Felix Jones. What else do you need?

McFadden was the Heisman runner-up a year ago and hopes to cap off his career (assuming he leaves after this year) with one last magical year. He may need some help at quarterback, but not much. Casey Dick will be the starter after being benched for true freshman Mitch Mustain. Mustain transfered to USC over the summer along with 300 other football players, so the job is all Dick's. Mustain and Dick had similar numbers last year, neither of which were particularly good. Look for Dick's numbers to improve, simply because he won't be looking over his shoulder this year.

Jones could be starting for about 95% of the teams in the nation. Unfortunately, he's on a team that's not in the 95%. No worries, he still gained over 1,000 yards last year and was a member of the most dangerous kick return tandem in the nation (along with McFadden).

Watch out for WR Marcus Monk (Sr). He turned down a shot at the NFL to come back for one more season. He's a big target at 6'6", 220 lbs, and has 31 starts in three years. Also, FB Peyton Hillis (Sr) has been opening holes for three years and deserves to be mentioned as one of the top fullbacks in the country. He missed the final four games for Arkansas last year with an injury - they lost three of them.

Schedule - Arkansas has 6 cupcake games this year. There are 4 games that could easily go either way: at Alabama, at Tennessee, vs. Auburn, and vs. South Carolina. They should be pleased if they win two out of the four, which will put them at 5-3 in the conference and 9-3 overall. I don't see them beating LSU on the road for the last game of the year. Another solid year for the Razorbacks, but I don't see them finishing ahead of Alabama.

Sure Wins: 7
Sure Losses: 1
Toss-up Games: 4 (at Alabama, Auburn, South Carolina, at Tennessee)

Forecast - Mostly sunny. Depending on how well Dick does and how the defense responds, the Razorbacks should have one more fight in them before the departure of McFadden (and Jones?).

4. Auburn

Magazine Predictions - As high as first (1 vote, Jim Feist) and as low as fourth (1 vote, Phil Steele) with an average of third.

They lose 1st Team All-SEC OL Tim Duckworth, 1st Team All-SEC RB Kenny Irons on offense, and 2nd Team American G Ben Grubbs on offense. They lose 2nd Team All-SEC LB Will Herring and 2nd Team All-SEC DB David Irons.

They also take a big hit on special teams losing 1st Team All-SEC K John Vaughn and 2nd Team All-SEC P Kody Bliss.

They do return 1st Team All-SEC DE Quentin Groves (Sr).

Last preseason Auburn was one of the favorites to win the National Championship. They were #2 for 3 weeks until a devastating loss to Arkansas. They bounced back and beat Florida (their only loss of the year) and were rolling again until getting blown out vs. Georgia at home. Overall, it was a disappointing season, despite beating Nebraska in the Cotton Bowl.

This year, they lose some key players, as mentioned earlier. QB Brandon Cox hasn't lived up to expectations, and it won't help that his top receiver, Courtney Taylor, and 4 starting lineman graduated. This may be a rebuilding year for the Tigers.

Quentin Groves will be the leader of the defense this year. Projected starting OLB Patrick Trahan is inelgible and will be out for the season.

Schedule - Auburn has 7 games that they should win this year, including 3 home conference games. That's the good news. The bad news is they have to travel to Florida, Arkansas, LSU, and Georgia. They finish the season at home against Alabama. They should be happy escaping with one win in those. If not, their conference record would be 3-5. They may finish 4-4 and a possible tie with Arkansas for third, but I don't see them beating Arkansas on the road, so they would lose the tiebreaker. They should end with a 8-4 or 7-5 season, but they do start the season with potential trap games against Kansas St., USF, and New Mexico St., all of which will be better than last year.

Sure Wins: 7
Sure Losses: 3
Toss-up Games: 2 (at Arkansas, Alabama)

Forecast - Partly sunny. Their are a lot of "ifs" for Auburn. They do have one of the best coaches in the nation, Tommy Tuberville, so don't count them out of it.

5. Ole Miss

Magazine Predictions - As high as fifth (6 votes), as low as sixth (5 votes).

They lose 1st Team All-American LB Patrick Willis on defense.

They return 2nd Team All-SEC LT Michael Oher (Jr) and 2nd Team All-SEC RB BenJarvis Green-Ellis (Sr) on offense.

Ole Miss returns both quarterbacks from last year (including Brent Schaeffer who started for Tennessee as a true freshman), an all-conference running back, a potential All-American tackle, their top 10 leaders in receptions, their punter and kicker, and punt returner and kick returners. They have the ingredients to make it to a bowl game this year for the first time since 1998.

Schedule - Ole Miss has 2 sure wins, homecoming against Louisiana Tech and a home game late in the season against FCS Northwestern St. Their three toss up games are at Memphis to begin the season, at Vanderbilt, and at Mississippi St. for the season finale.

Sure Wins: 2
Sure Losses: 7
Toss-up Games: 3 (at Memphis, at Vandy, at Miss. St.)

Forecast - Partly cloudy. This is an experienced team that went 4-8 last year but played Georgia, Alabama, Auburn and LSU tough, losing by a combined 17 points. Look for them to be up and down this year while pulling a few upsets (Florida? Alabama? Missouri?), but I expect them to go to a bowl game for the first time since 1998.

6. Mississippi St.

Magazine Predictions - As high as fifth (5 votes), as low as sixth (6 votes).

They lose 1st Team All-SEC LB Quinton Culberson on defense.

They return 2nd Team All-SEC DE Titus Brown (Sr) and 2nd Team All-SEC DB Derek Pegues (Jr) on defense.

They lost QB/WR Omarr Conner on offense, but return starting QB Michael Henig (Jr) and their top 5 running backs. Also, JUCO QB Josh Riddell (Jr) will compete for the starting job. He threw for over 3,000 yards last year. One of the strengths will be their receiving corps. Keep an eye on JUCO transfer WR Co-Eric Riley (Jr).

Defensively, 2006 all-conference CB Derek Pegues is expected to move to FS. JUCO DT Jesse Bowman (Jr) will fill a void on the line and could be a great player.

Schedule - Mississippi St. only has one sure win, against FCS Gardner-Webb. The game at Tulane on Sept. 8, homecoming vs. UAB, at Kentucky, and of course the home game against Ole Miss will be toss up games. I don't see them winning more than 4 games total this year, but they are a better team than last year.

Sure Wins: 1
Sure Losses: 7
Toss-up Games: 4 (at Tulane, UAB, at Kentucky, Mississippi)

Forecast - Cloudy. Although they upset Alabama last year and played Georgia tough, I don't see them beating those teams this year. Another year in the cellar for Mississippi St.

Yakob878MVP

846 days ago

Score 1

those rankings seem about right to me

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