College Football - Week 6 Games to Watch
| 14
|
by Kwinger 00
What a weekend in college football. "Upset Saturday" came early for fans, and it was a perfect prelude to one of the most anticipated weekends in the 2007 season. Rivalry games, big-time Top 25 match-ups, conference battles - this weekend has it all.
To show you how big of an impact home-field advantage is in college sports, #5 Wisconsin is three point UNDERDOGS to unranked Illinois! Also, #8 Kentucky is 3.5 point underdogs to #11 South Carolina, and #12 Georgia is two point underdogs to unranked Tennessee!
A few notes from last week before we get to this week's games:
- Despite all the upsets, I still managed to go 8-5 and was 3-1 in my upset specials. Unfortunately, the one upset I missed should count for negative 5. I picked Stanford over Arizona St., who squeaked out a 41-3 win. I also predicted that Oklahoma St. would not cover the 28-point spread over Sam Houston St. Sam Houston St. lost by 36. Other than that though...
- I had written last week, "defense is what will win it for the Bulls on Friday night." Sure enough, USF forced an astounding six turnovers and held Steve Slaton to 54 yards as they pulled out a 21-13 upset win. If you're a W.V. fan, don't take the easy way out by saying, "Well, if Pat White didn't get hurt..." Don't kid yourself, USF was the better team, and Pat White was not his typical self when he was healthy. It was clear to nearly everyone that was unbiased, except for announcer Chris Spielman, who kept pointing out throughout the broadcast that it was West Virginia who was beating themselves. He should've been mentioning the sticks and speed of the swarming USF defense who kept creating the turnovers. Looks like my preseason Big East favorite doesn't seem so radical anymore.
- Rutgers QB Mike Teel had a solid game (25-44 for 310 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 int) in their upset loss to Maryland, but his QB Rating plummeted 48 points. Say goodbye to your (ultra-slim) Heisman chances. If he could've only kept up his 236.65 rating... I guess there's always next year.
- I wrote in last week's column, "Illinois is sitting at 3-1 and 1-0 in the conference. This is a huge game for them. In their next four games, they host Penn St. and Wisconsin, travel to Iowa, then host Michigan. If they can win this one, Champaign will be celebrating Illinois football for the first time since the 2001 Big Ten Champions." Well, they're celebrating.
- I should've stuck with my gut on Kansas St., who was coming off a bye week. Never underestimate the advantage of having an extra week of preparation for a quality opponent.
- It's sad to see that Colt Brennan and Hawaii's only quality non-conference regular season opponent is the season finale at home against Washington, who could very well be 4-8 at the time. Last year, they played Alabama, Purdue and Oregon St. The year before that they played USC, Michigan St., and Wisconsin. This is arguably Hawaii's best team and Brennan's senior season, and nobody wanted to play them. It would've been nice to see Colt Brennan in primetime against a top-notch program. I guess we'll just have to wait for their (BCS?) bowl game.
Week 6 Games to Watch:
*My pick in bold
Non-Conference Games
- Notre Dame at UCLA
- Like I said last week, UCLA is for real. They just didn't bring it on one Saturday against Utah. Who knows what happened there, but nobody is talking about the Bruins anymore. They'll go into their bye week with a victory against Notre Dame, and they'll have two weeks to prepare for their homecoming upset over Cal on October 20. Meanwhile, Notre Dame had 377 yards passing and POSITIVE 49 yards rushing last week in a 33-19 loss to Purdue! They'll be considered in the BCS picture just for that.
- Utah at Louisville (*Friday Night)
- Utah has been a hard team to figure out this year. A 38 point win against then #11 UCLA, a 16 point win over Utah St. last week, but 3 losses to Oregon St., Air Force, and UNLV by a combined score of 19-71. Louisville has been equally hard to figure out. They're defense has been terrible, but played well last week against N.C. State. To prove how bad they were defensively against Syracuse two weeks ago, a game which they inexplicably lost 38-35, Syracuse has scored 46 points in their other four games combined, all losses. Furthermore, Syracuse had 465 yards of total offense in that game, 423 through the air. In their other four games, they've averaged 220.8 total yards per game and 180.5 yards passing per game. Louisville's offense can still score with anyone in the country, as they were expected. I still don't get why Steve Kragthorpe is getting all the blame. Was Bobby Petrino a defensive mastermind? No. Was Kragthorpe brought in as a defensive coach? No. In their first 5 games last year, Louisville averaged 44 points per game. This year - 45.8. They lost 5 starters on defense from last year - 1st Team All-American (DT Amobi Okoye), their leading tackler in LB Nate Harris, 2 cornerbacks (William Gay was 1st Team Big East), and 2nd Team Big East FS Brandon Sharp. The finger pointing should be directed at their replacements, not at the offensive-minded coach that was brought in.
Conference Games
- ACC
- No. 15 Virginia Tech at No. 22 Clemson
- Virginia Tech is currently 113th in the nation in total yards per game. They haven't been on the road since their total collapse at LSU. Tyrod Taylor somehow has a worse QB Rating than Sean Glennon. At least their defense is good (unless they play LSU). Clemson is coming off a disappointing loss at Georgia Tech in which they came into the game averaging 38.3 points per game and scored a measly 3. It didn't help that Mark Buchholz missed four field goals. He was apparently "tired" from a soccer game the night before. It is tough to swing your leg a few times a game, not to mention jog all the way onto the field, kick a ball, then come all the way back to the sideline. Virginia Tech in an ugly, almost unwatchable game.
- Georgia Tech at Maryland
- Maryland is riding high after their road upset at #10 Rutgers. Georgia Tech is 1-2 now in the ACC and needs this game to have any sort of chance in the ACC Coastal Division. Maryland is 0-1 in the ACC. This is a must win for both clubs.
- N.C. State at FSU
- I'm giving up on N.C. State. They've beaten FSU the last two years. Not this time. If you like good offenses, I wouldn't recommend watching this game. So it doesn't really make sense to put it on my "Games to Watch," huh?
- Big 12
- No. 10 Oklahoma vs. No. 19 Texas
- Oklahoma looked invincible going into "Upset Saturday." Colorado had a tremendous gameplan and believed they could win, and now Oklahoma is no longer one of the top 3 teams in the nation (for now). Fortunately for them, they're still favored to win the Big 12 because of Texas's loss last week to Kansas St.
- No. 25 Nebraska at No. 17 Missouri
- In many people's eyes, this is the game that will determine who wins the Big 12 North. I don't know about that, especially because of Colorado's upset over Oklahoma and Kansas St.'s dominance over Texas, but this is a huge game. The only team that isn't a contender in the North is Iowa St. The other five are going to battle it out until the end. Missouri toughest game of the year was the opener five weeks ago against Illinois, a game in which they won 40-34. Nebraska has looked good offensively at times, though I'm still not sold on the decision making (or throwing motion for that matter) of Sam Keller, but the defense is bad. Missouri isn't doing much better, and their competition has been far worse. Against Illinois, Ole Miss, Western Michigan, and Illinois St., Missouri has given up 434.5 yards per game, 275.8 yards through the air. If Nebraska is clicking, they'll be able to win a shootout. However, like I mentioned earlier, never underestimate the advantage of having an extra week of preparation for a quality opponent.
- Kansas at No. 24 Kansas St.
- This is one of the most intriguing matchups of the weekend. Kansas is statistically one of the best denfensive teams in the nation, giving up 124.0 passing yards per game (3rd), 94.8 rushing yards per game (21st), and 5.8 points per game (1st). Granted, they've played Central Michigan, FCS member SE Louisiana, Toledo, and Florida International, who are a combined 3-16. They are coming off a bye week, and you know what I think about bye weeks. However, I'm in the early stages of developing this "bye week" theory. What I found out was that it is important for teams to be tested by good competition before the bye week. Take Rutgers for example. They had climbed from #16 in the nation to #11, despite playing Buffalo, Navy, and Norfolk St. Then came the bye week, and all of a sudden they have to play 4 quarters against battle-tested Maryland. Result - 34-24 loss. Kansas St. has certainly been tested, and proven themselves. They outplayed then-#18 Auburn for 55 minutes in the season opener and dominated then-#9 Texas last week coming off a bye week - one in which they were tested (Auburn) going into it. Both of these teams are legit contenders in the wide-open Big 12 North.
- Oklahoma St. at Texas A&M
- The last couple games against A&M have been disasterous for the Cowboys. They botched two extra points last year in their 34-33 overtime loss. Oklahoma St.'s last trip to A&M resulted in a 62-23 pounding. Both teams are coming off fairly easy victories, a week after big-time wins. The winner of this game will be in sole possession of 1st place in the Big 12 South, ahead of powerhouses Texas and Oklahoma.
- Big East
- No. 20 Cincinnati at No. 21 Rutgers
- Sure Cincinnati is in the Top 25 for the first time since 1976, but their only big surprise was their win at home against 2-3 Oregon St. Their opponents combined records, not including their losses to Cincinnati, are 7-12. One of the teams they played, SE Missouri St., is a 2-3 FCS team. They haven't even played a conference game yet. Look at the rest of their schedule: at Rutgers, Louisville, at Pitt, bye week, at USF, UConn, West Virginia, at Syracuse. They'll be favored against UConn and Syracuse, but I don't know about any of the other games. They'll be lucky to get to 8-4. Rutgers has finally been tested - and lost. Now it's Cincinnati's turn.
- Big Ten
- No. 4 Ohio St. at No. 23 Purdue
- Purdue is averaging 309.8 yards passing per game, good for 14th in the country. Ohio St. is giving up 142.6, good for 6th in the nation. These two teams haven't played since 2004, when Purdue beat unranked OSU in Ross-Ade Stadium 24-17. You know the most overused saying in football - defense wins cham...
- Iowa at Penn St.
- Penn St. has lost five straight and four in a row at home to Iowa. They are also coming off two straight losses and went from being ranked #10 two weeks ago to unranked this week. On the plus side, they're 3-0 this year at home. Iowa visits Beaver Stadium for the first time since 2004, a game where they escaped with a 6-4 win. That's not a typo - 6-4. Despite all this, Penn St. is 10 point favorites over Iowa, who has lost three straight. This game may be the turnaround point for the team that wins this game.
- Pac 10
- Arizona at Oregon St.
- Oregon St. is 0-2 in the Pac 10. Arizona is 1-1, but is coming off a big 28 point victory over Washington St. They have averaged over 36 points in each of their last four games. Oregon St. has the most stout defense in the Pac 10 against the run, allowing only 50.2 yards per game and a 1.4 average. Arizona is averaging a pathetic 101.4 yards per game on the ground. Oregon St. should be able to focus on the pass and shut down Arizona. I guess that's easier said than done, but I'm sure they'll give it a shot.
- SEC
- No. 9 Florida at No. 1 LSU
- This could've been a huge #3 vs. #1 match-up. Instead, Florida dropped to #9 after losing to Auburn. That's not to say this game isn't huge, but it could've been HUGE. LSU's defense is unreal. They're giving up 6.4 points per game (2nd in the nation), 174.6 yards per game (1st by 23 yards per game), they've given up one touchdown through the air and picked off 10, and they've given up 1.3 yards per carry (1st). Both of their big games (Virginia Tech, South Carolina) have been at home, and now they get the Gators at home. I wouldn't be as confident with the Tigers had it been in "The Swamp," being that Florida is looking for revenge after last week's loss, but it's at Tiger Stadium. The quarterbacks have been taking care of the ball and not taking too many chances. Would you if you had that defense? LSU will be looking to avenge last year's 23-10 loss to eventual champions Florida.
- No. 8 Kentucky at No. 11 South Carolina (*Thursday Night)
- Kentucky is giving up an astounding 5.0 yards per carry this year. Look for South Carolina to take advantage of that on the ground. Not good enough of a reason? South Carolina is giving up only 106.4 yards passing per game. That should be able to shut down Woodson's passing attack. Do you like apples? How do you like them apples?
- No. 12 Georgia at Tennessee
- Guess who's coming off a bye week... that's right, Tennessee. Plus it's at home. That's all I've got here. Sorry to disappoint.
UPSET SPECIAL
- No. 5 Wisconsin at Illinois
- Can you believe that Illinois is favored by 3 points in this game. They're UNRANKED! Wisconsin has won 14 games in a row and 18 of their last 19. They've won 8 of their last 11 on the road. AND THEY'RE RANKED #5 IN THE COUNTRY. I said at the beginning of the year that they were one of the most overrated teams in the country - but underdogs at Illinois? That's just crazy. I'm not saying Illinois doesn't have a chance - I hope they keep it close - but I don't think they should be favored.
Week 1: 6-2
Upset Specials: None
Week 2: 9-4
Upset Specials: 1-1
Week 3: 9-6
Upset Specials: 1-1
Week 4: 9-3
Upset Specials: 3-1
Week 5: 8-5
Upset Specials: 3-1
Year: 41-20
