Can pitching alone land the Marlins another Fall Classic?
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by user Sparty
I read the "If pitching wins, Who tops the Marlins?" article on MLB.com yesterday. (If pitching wins, Who tops the Marlins?) It got me thinking about whether the relationship between Runs Allowed and Runs scored was a reliable predictor of success for a franchise.
Anyone can simply look at the fact that if you score more runs than you allow you're more likely to win. Bill James even developed his baseball version of the Pythagorean Theorem which states:
RS^2
Winning Pct = WPct = -------------------
RS^2 + RA^2
The team over at Baseball Prospectus investigated this formula back in 1999.
(Revisiting the Pythagorean Theorem) They found that the theorem while a decent rule of thumb wasn't necessarily an accurate predictor of the number of wins a team could generate simply from outscoring their opponents over the season. The best they were able to get to by manipulating this concept and applying it using other developed formulas was a 5% margin of error which over a 162 game season is 8 games.
If you look at an 8 game margin over the last 3 years you'll find that it's a pretty significant number of potential wins or losses at the top of most divisional standings.
I decided to just take a look at the numbers. I pulled every team's Run Difference and Runs Allowed since 1976.
Run Difference was calculated, as you can imagine by subtracting the Runs Allowed from the Runs scored over the season.
Top 10, Run Difference
Year Team RD Division Notes
1) 1998 NYY 309 1 Won WS
2) 2001 SEA 300 1 Lost ALCS
3) 1998 HOU 254 1 Lost NLDS
4) 1998 ATL 245 1 Lost NLCS
5) 2001 OAK 239 2 Wildcard, Lost ALDS
6) 1995 CLE 233 1 Won WS
7) 1999 ARI 232 1 Lost NLDS
8) 1976 CIN 224 1 Won WS
9) 1976 PHI 213 1 Lost WS
10) 1997 ATL 210 1 Lost NLCS
Top 10 Fewest Runs Allowed
Year Team RA RD Division Notes
1) 1998 NYM 532 171 2 Lowest Team ERA in last 30 years
2) 1989 LAD 536 18 4
3) 1976 NYM 538 77 3
4) 1995 ATL 540 105 1 Lost WS
5) 1976 LAD 543 65 2
6) 1988 LAD 544 84 1 Won WS
7) 2003 LAD 556 18 2
8) 1976 PHI 557 213 1 Lost NLCS
9) 1993 ATL 559 208 1 Lost NLCS
10) 1991 LAD 565 100 2
Simply not allowing your opponents to score runs is not enough to guarantee a good season as you can see. Focusing on reducing runs allowed at the expense of securing big hitters simply isn't an historical model for success as Florida's front office might contend.
I also looked at Florida's last 5 seasons too see how their philosophy has performed. Sometimes a franchise philosophy where the focus is on growing their own talent from within and teaching a system can produce better results that might not line up with the majority of other team's past performance.
Year RA R RD
2002 763 699 -64
2003 692 751 59 (Won WS)
2004 700 718 18
2005 732 717 -15
2006 772 758 -14
In 1998 the Florida Marlins had the 6th worst run difference in the past 30s years (-256). The Detroit Tigers who hold the single worst run difference in the past 30 years did so in 2003, but went to the World Series in 2006 suggesting that past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future success when simply evaluating a team's performance in this manner.
While pitching is clearly important to creating a winning team, clearly having players who can contribute runs on a regular basis is more important than pitching. The 1999 Cleveland Indians are a great example of this.
They scored 1009 runs while allowing opponents to rack up 860 runs against them. In fact, their team ERA was 4.9 during that season. The Tribe won their division, but lost the ALDS to the Red Sox in a 5 game series. If you throw out the 23 run game that the Sox posted in game 4, the Indians and Boston Red Sox both scored 24 runs. So while pitching clearly had a breakdown in game 4 that cost them the series, it was largely a well matched series where each team showcased their offensive potential rather than their pitching prowess.
I think the Marlins need to develop or trade for some young talent like a Rocco Baldeli from Tampa Bay where the Rays need pitching, but have young batting power to spare. I just don't see the Marlins turning around the organization on a wealth of pitching and a lack of offensive power. What looked to be going in the right direction in 2003 quickly turned around after the firesale in 2004 & 2005 of their superstars like Pudge & Sheffield.
What remains to be seen is whether or not the Marlins 2007 pitching staff can be so dominant that the front office can have time and tools to get the offensive pieces to the puzzle that are currently eluding the Marlins who may only be 1 or 2 great positional players away from another run at the World Series.
